737
FXUS62 KMLB 010611
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
211 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 211 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2026
- HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES IN THE U90S TO
L-M100S EACH AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK
FORECAST EACH DAY.
- DEEP MOISTURE WITH A NEARBY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH POTENTIALLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUING INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 211 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2026
CURRENT-TONIGHT...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE AREA WITH DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ONSHORE-
MOVING SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS; THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COAST AND GREATEST COVERAGE OVER THE INTERIOR
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS EARLY EVENING. PRIMARY STORM IMPACTS
INCLUDE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS 35-45 MPH LOCALLY,
AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. QUICK 1-2" RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR
WITH A COUPLE STORMS, ESPECIALLY INLAND, WITH MINOR TO NUISANCE
FLOODING POSSIBLE - ESPECIALLY LOCATIONS THAT HAVE RECEIVED
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. STORM MOTION REMAINS SLOW
AND TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY
EVENING, THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER ALONG THE COAST
OVERNIGHT.
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK CONTINUES WITH MAX TEMPS IN
THE U80S AND A FEW L90S POSSIBLE INLAND. PEAK HEAT INDICES IN THE
U90S TO L100S. WARM & HUMID AT NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE L-U70S.
THU-FRI...NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW CONTINUES INTO THU EVENING, THEN
VEERS SE/S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WARMING ALOFT WITH
FAIRLY STOUT MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH, BUT WE
WILL SEE OCCASIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES TRAVERSE THE AREA UNDER
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH. A DIFFUSE SEA
BREEZE WILL BE PRESENT EACH DAY PUSHING WELL INLAND. RATHER DEEP,
BUT LIGHT, ONSHORE FLOW WITH STORM STEERING REMAINING LIGHT AND
TOWARD THE WEST OR NORTH. HIGHEST POPS, SCATTERED TO LOCALLY
NUMEROUS, GENERALLY INLAND & SOUTH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
REMAIN A KEY CONCERN IN ADDITION TO LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS. TYPICAL WARM & HUMID SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS CONTINUE
WITH HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S, WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES 97-104F.
CONDITIONS AT NIGHT REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY.
SAT-TUE...A WEAK OVERALL PRESSURE PATTERN REMAINS CONSISTENT ACROSS
CENTRAL FL WITH THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS NEARBY. THE WEAK SURFACE FLOW
REMAINS S/SE DURING THE DAY RETURNING TO S/SSW AT NIGHT. MID-LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH INITIALLY WEAKENS ACROSS THE MID ATLC
COAST AND ADJACENT WESTERN ATLC, BUT AS IT GETS PUSHED SOUTHWARD,
STRENGTHENS A BIT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TO INCLUDE NORTH-CENTRAL
FL. WILL SEE DAILY SEA BREEZE FORMATION AND PUSH INLAND. FAIRLY
DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH TYPICAL SCT-NMRS
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE EACH AFTN/EVENING, THOUGH FEEL NBM
NUMBERS ARE A BIT TOO HIGH. MAX TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE L-M90S
WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES PICKING BACK UP TO 100-107F EACH AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF SEA BREEZES AND PRECIP. LOWS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN THE 70S
WITH CONDITIONS HUMID.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 211 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2026
THROUGH SUN...GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE
WITH HIGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND ONSHORE-MOVING SHOWERS AND
LIGHTNING STORMS THRU THU. NE/E WINDS INTO THU EVENING WILL VEER
SE THU OVERNIGHT AND WILL REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTHERLY (SE/S/SSW)
INTO THE WEEKEND. WIND SPEEDS REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS AND OFTEN BELOW
10 KTS THRU THE PERIOD. SEAS 2-4 FT (UP TO 5 FT WELL OFFSHORE CAPE
NORTH LATER TODAY/TONIGHT) BECOME 3 FT OR LESS FRI INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE ISOLD-SCT WITH WINDS
AND SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER INVOF STORMS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2026
VCSH POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST FROM TIX SOUTHWARD THROUGH THIS
MORNING ALONG WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AREAWIDE. VCSH/VCTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER 15Z, WITH ACTIVITY
ANTICIPATED TO SUBSIDE BY 20Z AREAWIDE. LEFT PROB30/TEMPOS OUT OF
THE FORECAST FOR NOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. NORTHEAST WINDS PICK UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
THROUGH LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS, EVENTUALLY
DIMINISHING ONCE AGAIN TO AROUND 5 KNOTS AFTER 00Z AREAWIDE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 88 77 89 77 / 30 10 30 10
MCO 90 75 91 76 / 50 0 50 0
MLB 88 78 89 78 / 40 10 20 0
VRB 89 78 90 77 / 40 10 30 10
LEE 90 75 92 77 / 50 0 40 10
SFB 91 75 92 76 / 40 10 50 10
ORL 90 76 91 77 / 50 0 50 10
FPR 89 76 89 76 / 40 10 40 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SEDLOCK
AVIATION...TOLLEFSEN
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