474
FXUS62 KMLB 012353
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
753 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2026
- HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES IN THE U90S TO
L-M100S EACH AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK
FORECAST MOST DAYS.
- DEEP MOISTURE WITH A NEARBY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH POTENTIALLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUING INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2026
CURRENTLY-TONIGHT... KMLB RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
LIGHTNING STORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LOCAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ANALYSIS CHARTS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA, AS WELL AS HIGH PRESSURE
(~1020MB)TO THE NORTH BUILDING OVER THE MID SOUTH AND OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES UP TO 98-105F DEGREES. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID 70S
TO AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AT 5-12MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 20-25MPH.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS (30-50% CHANCE ALONG THE COAST AND 50-
60% INLAND) LIGHTNING STORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING BY AROUND 8PM FOR THE INLAND
LOCATIONS. THIS MORNING'S 15Z XMR SOUNDING SHOWS MLCAPE AT 1,273
J/KG, DCAPE AT 1,337 J/KG, 0-6KM SHEAR AT 4KTS, A 500MB
TEMPERATURE AT -7.2C, A PWAT VALUE OF 1.71" AND SUBSTANTIAL DRY
WEATHER . THE AFOREMENTIONED PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
WIND GUSTS TO 40-50MPH, AND HEAVY RAINFALL (1-3" IN 30-60 MINUTES
WITH A 1 IN 10 CHANCE OF TOTAL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2" UP TO
3-4"). ISOLATED TO SCATTERED (20-30% CHANCE) ONSHORE MOVING
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING,
ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY SOUTHWARDS. ABOVE NORMAL
LOWS (~1-4F+) IN THE LOW TO UPPER 70S ARE FORECAST.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY... PREDOMINATELY ONSHORE FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS COUPLED WITH PWATS IN THE 1.8-2.3"
RANGE ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ONSHORE MOVING
SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS ARE FORECAST IN THE MORNING ALONG THE
COAST BEFORE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS (40-70%) DEVELOPING INLAND INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE, MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF
ORLANDO ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA. A SIMILAR FORECAST IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUES, ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
NORTH WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES (30-80% CHANCE
GENERALLY HIGHEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR) AREAWIDE. GUIDANCE
INDICATES MUCAPE UP TO 2,000-3,200 ON THURSDAY AND 2,000-4,000
J/KG ON FRIDAY WITH VERY WEAK 0-6K SHEAR AND PWATS BETWEEN
1.8-2.3". THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS
CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-50MPH, FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAINFALL (1-3" IN 30-60 MINUTES WITH A 1 IN
10 CHANCE OF TOTAL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2" UP TO 3-4".) AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S ARE FORECAST WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES UP TO 98-107F DEGREES. A MODERATE HEATRISK EXISTS ON
THURSDAY WITH A MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK ON FRIDAY. A MAJOR
HEATRISK CAN AFFECT ANYONE WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING AND HYDRATION.
VISIT WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEATRISK FOR MORE INFORMATION ON
HEATRISK.
SATURDAY-TUESDAY... A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH 500MB HEIGHTS
AROUND 594DM OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON SATURDAY IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE MORNING ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO BACK
ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST AND VEER WEST-SOUTHWEST, MAINLY ALONG AND
WEST OF I-4 WHICH WILL RESULT IN DAILY SEA BREEZE DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
LIGHTNING STORMS INTO EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR A COUPLE TO A FEW STRONG STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND ABOVE NORMAL (~1-4F+) LOWS IN THE
LOW TO UPPER 70S ARE FORECAST. THE PROBABILITY OF A MAJOR
HEATRISK IS GENERALLY BETWEEN 30-90% WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES ALONG AND NORTH OF I-4.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2026
CURRENTLY-THURSDAY... MOSTLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS ARE
FORECAST. EAST WINDS AT AROUND 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS ARE
FORECAST TO WEAKEN INTO THURSDAY AT 5-10KTS. SEAS TO 2-4 FT ARE
EXPECTED WITH UP TO 5 FT OVER THE OFFSHORE (20-60NM) VOLUSIA AND
BREVARD COUNTY WATERS.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY... MOSTLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING
STORMS. WINDS WILL TURN EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5-10KTS INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10-15KTS OVER THE WEEKEND.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED GENERALLY ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND
LIGHTNING STORMS ARE FORECAST EACH DAY. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A
STRONG STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34KTS.
SEAS TO 1-3FT ARE EXPECTED.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2026
E/NE WINDS 10-15 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 20 KT REMAIN THRU
02Z MLB NORTHWARD. ISO/SCT WILL CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE COAST
TIX-SUA DURING THAT TIMEFRAME, THOUGH IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW LONG
THIS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT. AMDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR ADDITIONAL SHRA
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT TIX-SUA.
OTHERWISE, LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS THU. MORNING REACH 10-14 KT (GUSTS
~20 KT) AFTER 18-20Z. ECSB WILL CARRY SCT SHRA/TSRA INLAND, WEST
OF THE TERMINALS BY 20-22Z. MAINTAINED VC WORDING FOR NOW. OTHER
THAN BRIEF IMPACTS PSBL FROM SHRA/TSRA THRU THE TAF, VFR IS
EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 76 89 76 90 / 20 30 10 30
MCO 75 92 75 93 / 10 40 10 70
MLB 79 89 78 90 / 20 40 10 50
VRB 78 90 77 91 / 30 40 10 60
LEE 75 93 76 93 / 0 30 10 60
SFB 75 93 75 94 / 10 30 10 60
ORL 75 92 76 93 / 10 30 10 70
FPR 76 89 75 90 / 30 40 20 60
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FEHLING
AVIATION...SCHAPER
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