423
FXUS62 KMLB 021744
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
144 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 241 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
- HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES IN THE U90S TO
L-M100S EACH AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK
FORECAST MOST DAYS.
- AMPLE MOISTURE, DAYTIME HEATING AND BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING
STORMS INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.
- AT LEAST A MODERATE RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT AREA
BEACHES HEADING INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
CURRENT-TONIGHT...ONE MORE DAY WITH ONSHORE-MOVING SHOWERS (ISOLD
LIGHTNING STORM) DURING THE MORNING, WITH ACTIVITY FAVORING THE
INTERIOR (ESP SOUTH OF ORLANDO) INTO THE AFTERNOON. COVERAGE MAY BE
LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS, WITH DEEPEST MOISTURE CONFINED TOWARD LAKE
OKEE, AND PRIMARY STORM IMPACTS OF LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS
LOCALLY, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. STORM MOTION WILL REMAIN SLOW/ERRATIC.
BY EARLY/MID EVENING, MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ACROSS WCFL &
SWFL. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS ONSHORE FLOW/CONVERGENCE
WILL BE LIGHT/WEAK.
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO ISOLATED MAJOR HEATRISK WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE
U80S L90S (INLAND). PEAK HEAT INDICES MOSTLY IN THE U90S TO L100S,
BUT COULD SEE UP TO AROUND 105F SURROUNDING LAKE OKEE AND MARTIN
COUNTY. WARM & HUMID AT NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE L-U70S.
FRI-SUN...GENERALLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS VEER MORE SE/S/SSW AS A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS THRU THIS PERIOD. MID-LEVEL TEMPS
RELATIVELY WARM -4.5C TO -5.0C TO BEGIN THE PERIOD, BUT GRADUALLY
COOL TO -6.0C TO -7.0C SAT/SUN. A FEW MID-LEVEL IMPULSES WILL AID
CONVECTION OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL FL ON FRI SURGE NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL FL SAT/SUN. STORM
STEERING FORECAST LIGHT SOUTHERLY BUT DIURNAL BOUNDARY COLLISIONS
MAY MAKE CELL MOVEMENT ERRATIC AT TIMES AS THE ECSB WILL DEVELOP
EACH AFTERNOON AND MARCH WELL INLAND. SCT-NMRS (30-70%) SHOWERS AND
STORMS FORECAST FRI AFTN/EVENING; HIGHEST SOUTH OF ORLANDO WHERE
MOISTURE IS DEEPEST. CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE NMRS (CAPPED AT 70%)
CONVECTIVE CHANCES SAT/SUN, THOUGH BELIEVE SOME OF THESE (NBM)
NUMBERS MAY BE TOO HIGH. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THRU THE EVENING AND
HOPEFULLY IN TIME NOT TO HAMPER HOLIDAY WEEKEND CELEBRATIONS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A KEY CONCERN IN ADDITION TO
LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND GUSTY WINDS.
TYPICAL WARM & HUMID SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN
THE U80S TO L90S, THOUGH COULD SEE SOME M90S ESP ACROSS THE I-4
CORRIDOR. PEAK HEAT INDICES ANYWHERE FROM 100-107F, STAYING FOR THE
MOMENT JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT YET WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK. CONDITIONS AT NIGHT REMAIN WARM AND
MUGGY. IF YOU ARE PLANNING TO SPEND TIME OUTDOORS, TAKE PLENTY OF
BREAKS IN THE SHADE OR A/C AND STAY WELL-HYDRATED TO AVOID HEAT-
RELATED FATIGUE/ILLNESS. NEVER LEAVE PETS OR CHILDREN IN VEHICLES
UNATTENDED!
MON-WED...WEAK ATLC RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA
DURING THIS TIME. GENERALLY SW FLOW AT NIGHT/MORNING PERIODS,
"BACKING" ONSHORE EACH AFTERNOON WITH SEA BREEZE FORMATION AND LATE
DAY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FOR SCT TO LOCALLY NMRS DIURNAL
CONVECTION EACH DAY/EVENING. MAX TEMPS CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
L-M90S WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES PICKING BACK UP TO 100-107F EACH
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF SEA BREEZES AND PRECIP. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
MAJOR HEATRISK EXPECTED. LOWS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN THE 70S WITH
CONDITIONS HUMID.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 241 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
THROUGH MON...GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE LATE
WEEK INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND OUTSIDE OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
LIGHTNING STORMS. NE/E WINDS INTO THU EVENING WILL VEER SE FRI AND
REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTHERLY (SE/S/SSW) INTO THE WEEKEND. WIND SPEEDS
REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS AND OFTEN BELOW 10 KTS THRU THE PERIOD. SEAS 2-4
FT (UP TO 5 FT WELL OFFSHORE CAPE NORTH EARLY IN THE PERIOD) BECOME
3 FT OR LESS FRI INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS
AND SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER INVOF STORMS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
MAINLY VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD, WITH ISO SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AT
ISM/MCO AFTER 20-21Z AS THE ECSB MOVES INLAND. EASTERLY WINDS 5-10
KT (BRIEF GUST 15-20 KT BEHIND THE ECSB). LIGHTER WINDS OVERNIGHT,
THEN VCTS VRB-SUA AFTER 15Z FRI., FOLLOWED BY MCO AFTER 19Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 76 90 76 91 / 0 20 10 70
MCO 75 94 76 93 / 10 60 20 70
MLB 78 90 78 91 / 10 40 20 70
VRB 77 91 76 91 / 10 60 10 70
LEE 76 94 77 93 / 10 40 30 70
SFB 75 94 77 94 / 10 50 20 70
ORL 76 93 77 93 / 10 50 20 70
FPR 76 90 75 91 / 10 60 20 70
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SEDLOCK
AVIATION...SCHAPER
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