840
FXUS62 KMLB 021825
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
225 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
- HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL BUILD WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES
CLIMBING TO 102-107 THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK.
- INCREASED MOISTURE, STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
LIGHTNING STORMS INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.
- AT LEAST A MODERATE RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT AREA
BEACHES THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
THROUGH TONIGHT...SLUG OF DRY AIR IS TRAVERSING NORTH FL FROM EAST
TO WEST. THIS IS EVIDENT BY THE SPARSER CU DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS
DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S ORLANDO NORTH. SOME
BUBBLING UP OF CU EAST OF ORLANDO SO A FEW SHOWERS, POSSIBLY A
STORM MAY AFFECT ORANGE COUNTY THROUGH SUNSET. OTHERWISE FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE SOUTHERN INTERIOR, DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING.
FRI-SUN...GENERALLY LIGHT SURFACE WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF
THE EAST FRI THEN VEER MORE SOUTHERLY AS ATLC RIDGE BUILDS WEST
OVER FL PENINSULA. MID-LEVEL TEMPS RELATIVELY WARM -4.5C TO -5.0C
TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY COOL TO -6.0C TO -7.0C
SAT/SUN. A FEW MID- LEVEL IMPULSES WILL AID CONVECTION OVER THE
WEEKEND. HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL FL ON FRI
SURGE NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL FL SAT/SUN. LIGHT SOUTHERLY STEERING
FLOW WILL DEVELOP BUT DIURNAL BOUNDARY COLLISIONS SHOULD MAKE
CELL MOVEMENT ERRATIC AT TIMES AS THE ECSB WILL DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON AND MARCH WELL INLAND. SCT-NMRS (30-60%) SHOWERS AND
STORMS FORECAST FRI AFTN/EVENING; HIGHEST SOUTH OF ORLANDO WHERE
MOISTURE IS DEEPEST. CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE NMRS (CAPPED AT 70%)
CONVECTIVE CHANCES SAT/SUN, THOUGH BELIEVE SOME OF THESE (NBM)
NUMBERS MAY BE TOO HIGH. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THRU THE EVENING
AND HOPEFULLY IN TIME NOT TO HAMPER HOLIDAY WEEKEND CELEBRATIONS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A KEY CONCERN IN ADDITION TO
LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND GUSTY WINDS.
TYPICAL WARM & HUMID SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN
THE U80S TO L90S, THOUGH COULD SEE SOME M90S ESP ACROSS THE I-4
CORRIDOR. PEAK HEAT INDICES ANYWHERE FROM 100-107F, STAYING FOR THE
MOMENT JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT YET WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK. CONDITIONS AT NIGHT REMAIN WARM AND
MUGGY. IF YOU ARE PLANNING TO SPEND TIME OUTDOORS, TAKE PLENTY OF
BREAKS IN THE SHADE OR A/C AND STAY WELL-HYDRATED TO AVOID HEAT-
RELATED FATIGUE/ILLNESS. NEVER LEAVE PETS OR CHILDREN IN VEHICLES
UNATTENDED!
MON-WED...WEAK ATLC RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA
DURING THIS TIME. GENERALLY SW FLOW AT NIGHT/MORNING PERIODS,
"BACKING" ONSHORE EACH AFTERNOON WITH SEA BREEZE FORMATION AND LATE
DAY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FOR SCT TO LOCALLY NMRS DIURNAL
CONVECTION EACH DAY/EVENING. MAX TEMPS CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
L-M90S WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES PICKING BACK UP TO 100-107F EACH
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF SEA BREEZES AND PRECIP. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
MAJOR HEATRISK EXPECTED. LOWS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN THE 70S WITH
CONDITIONS HUMID.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
GENERALLY FAVORABLE WINDS AND SEAS FOR BOATING THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE SCATTERED
LIGHTNING STORMS OVER INLAND LAKES AND POSSIBLY HUGGING ALONG THE
EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND AS WIND FLOW VEERS MORE SOUTHERLY. WINDS
REMAIN ONSHORE, MAINLY OUT OF THE EAST FRIDAY BELOW 15 KNOTS THEN
TURNING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND WITH A SE SEA BREEZE. SEAS
2-3 FT FRIDAY BECOMING 1-2 FT THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WINDS AND SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER IN VICINITY OF STORMS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
MAINLY VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD, WITH ISO SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AT
ISM/MCO AFTER 20-21Z AS THE ECSB MOVES INLAND. EASTERLY WINDS 5-10
KT (BRIEF GUST 15-20 KT BEHIND THE ECSB). LIGHTER WINDS OVERNIGHT,
THEN VCTS VRB-SUA AFTER 15Z FRI., FOLLOWED BY MCO AFTER 19Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 76 90 76 91 / 0 20 10 70
MCO 75 94 76 93 / 10 60 20 70
MLB 78 90 78 91 / 10 40 20 70
VRB 77 91 76 91 / 10 60 10 70
LEE 76 94 77 93 / 10 40 30 70
SFB 75 94 77 94 / 10 50 20 70
ORL 76 93 77 93 / 10 50 20 70
FPR 76 90 75 91 / 10 60 20 70
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KELLY
AVIATION...SCHAPER
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