590
FXUS62 KMLB 031128
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
728 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026
- HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL BUILD WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES
CLIMBING TO 102-107 THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK.
- INCREASED MOISTURE, STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
LIGHTNING STORMS INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.
- AT LEAST A MODERATE RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT AREA
BEACHES THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. TODAY, GRADUALLY WEAKENING INTO TONIGHT. A BOUNDARY
OF MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC REACHES ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (PWAT ~2.0-
2.2") WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FORECAST TO THE NORTH OF ORLANDO
(PWAT ~1.8-2.0"). ISOLATED ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS MAY BRUSH THE
COAST EARLY IN THE DAY BEFORE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
BECOMES DRIVEN BY THE SEA BREEZE AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS. THE GREATEST DIURNAL POPS WILL BE SUPPORTED IN THE
AREA OF HIGHEST MOISTURE, WITH COVERAGE GENERALLY PEAKING AROUND 50-
70% SOUTH OF ORLANDO AND WEST OF I-95. FURTHER NORTH, COVERAGE
REMAINS MORE SCATTERED RANGING 30-50% WEST OF I-95. IN TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME FASHION, THE STORM ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK
SHEAR AND HIGH SURFACE INSTABILITY. ORGANIZED STRONGER STORMS ARE
GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED, BUT GUSTY WINDS OF 45-50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF ISOLATED STORM DOWNBURSTS. OTHERWISE, WEAK
STEERING FLOW MAY CONTRIBUTE TO PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND MINOR/ NUISANCE FLOODING IN SLOW MOVING STORMS.
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S. PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES MOSTLY RANGE 100-105F,
AND A MODERATE TO LOCALIZED MAJOR HEATRISK IS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH
OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD, IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS PERSISTS AT EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
BEACHES. HEED THE ADVISE OF LIFEGUARDS, BEACH PATROL FLAGS, AND
SIGNS.
WEEKEND... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. AS A PAIR OF MID LEVEL TROUGHS DIG THROUGH THE NORTHEAST U.S.
AND THE MIDWEST STATES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH ITS AXIS STRETCHING INTO SOUTH FLORIDA BY
LATE THIS WEEKEND. DEEPER MOISTURE WHICH HAD BEEN FOCUSED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA EARLIER IN THE WEEK BECOMES ADVECTED
NORTHWARD AS LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE
AREAWIDE COVERAGE OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS (~50-70%) SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SLIGHTLY DELAYED SEA BREEZE
WILL MIGRATE INLAND EACH DAY WITH A SEA BREEZE COLLISION FOCUSED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA, AND PEAK
COVERAGE IS GENERALLY EXPECTED BETWEEN 4PM-8PM. SOME ACTIVITY MAY
PUSH BACK TOWARDS THE COAST, WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES LINGERING INTO
THE LATE EVENING. PRIMARY STORM HAZARDS REMAIN FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS IN VICINITY OF DOWNBURSTS, AND PERIODS OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SEASONABLY HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS (LOW-MID 90S) NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. PEAK
HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 102-107F ARE FORECAST TO MOSTLY HOLD NEAR
TO BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS
ARE ENCOURAGE TO STAY HYDRATED AND PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY THIS
WEEKEND. FOR HEAT SAFETY TIPS, VISIT HEAT.GOV.
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A LIFE GUARD!
MONDAY-THURSDAY... MID LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE MIDWEST U.S.
SLIDES INTO THE EASTERN U.S. AND OFFSHORE BY WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SHOULD KEEP THE TROUGH AND ANY
SURFACE FRONTS NORTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA, BUT OCCASIONAL PULSES OF
VORTICITY MAY STILL PASS ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS NEAR OR SOUTH
OF THE AREA MAY BROADEN INTO MID NEXT WEEK, BUT A LOOSE PRESSURE
GRADIENT LOOKS TO KEEP LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW (VARIABLE AT TIMES) IN
PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW SOME
DISAGREEMENTS IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE EURO
KEEPING A DEEPER PLUME OF MOISTURE IN PLACE (2.0-2.2") AND THE GFS
WIDELY FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 1.7-2.2". FOR NOW, THE CURRENT FORECAST
SUGGESTS SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT THERE REMAINS MENTIONABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT POP VALUES EACH DAY. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
PERSIST, AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S MAY SHOW A SUBTLE WARMING
TREND INTO MID WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH EXTENDS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, MAINTAINING FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY SHIFT ONSHORE AS THE SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON. PREVAILING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THEN
DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND, INCREASING 10-15 KTS EACH EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. SEAS OF 2-3 FT GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO BECOME WIDELY 1-2 FT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST
ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY TODAY. COVERAGE OF OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWERS
AND STORMS INCREASES IN COVERAGE THIS WEEKEND, PRIMARILY IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026
A SUMMERTIME SEA BREEZE PATTERN AND LITTLE TO NO STEERING FLOW IS
FORECAST TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS, SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE ALONG THE
COLLISION FROM NEAR MCO SOUTHWARD OVER THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER, HAVE
ALSO INCLUDED TEMPOS AT THE TREASURE COAST TERMINALS, AS WELL AS
LEE AFTER 18-21Z RESPECTIVELY. DAB AND TIX ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
DRY, WITH VCTS INCLUDED FOR SFB AND MLB. VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING, WITH REDUCTIONS IN STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS. STORM
MOTIONS WILL BE ERRATIC, WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ALONG
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS.
LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING BECOME ONSHORE AT 10 KTS OR LESS THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND. ANY
CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH BY AROUND 0-1Z, WITH HIGHER
COVERAGE DEVELOPING AREAWIDE FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 90 76 91 76 / 20 10 60 20
MCO 94 76 93 76 / 50 30 70 30
MLB 90 77 91 77 / 40 10 70 30
VRB 91 76 91 76 / 50 20 70 30
LEE 94 77 93 77 / 30 20 70 20
SFB 95 76 94 77 / 30 20 70 30
ORL 94 77 93 77 / 50 20 70 30
FPR 90 75 90 75 / 60 20 70 30
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LAW
AVIATION...WISHARD
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