964
FXUS62 KMLB 040553
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
153 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026
- HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL BUILD WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES
CLIMBING TO 102-107 THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK.
- AT LEAST A MODERATE RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT AREA
BEACHES THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND. REMEMBER TO SWIM
NEAR A LIFEGUARD!
- INCREASED MOISTURE, STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
LIGHTNING STORMS INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND; THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR A COUPLE TO A FEW STRONG STORMS EACH DAY
-
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026
CURRENTLY-TONIGHT... KMLB RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
LIGHTNING STORMS OVER THE TREASURE COAST WITH THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE PUSHING INLAND TO THE WEST OF US-1. GOES-16 SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND LOCAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ANALYSIS CHARTS SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE (~1019MB) OVER THE GULF OF AMERICA, AS WELL AS HIGH
PRESSURE (~1021MB) OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC NEAR THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 102-107F DEGREES. DEW POINTS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS (50-70% SOUTH AND WEST; 20-50% NORTH
AND EAST) AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS OF EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH BY 9PM. THIS MORNING'S 15Z
XMR SOUNDING SHOWS MLCAPE AT 1,655 J/KG, DCAPE AT 872 J/KG, 0-6KM
SHEAR AT 7KTS, AND A PWAT VALUE OF 2.02" WHICH SUGGESTS THE
THERE'S THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, WIND GUSTS TO 40-50MPH, AND HEAVY RAINFALL
(1-2" IN 30-60 MINUTES WITH A 1-IN-10 CHANCE OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN EXCESS OF 2" UP TO 3-4"). EAST WINDS WILL BECOME ERRATIC AT
TIMES THROUGH THIS EVENING AT 5-10MPH. ABOVE NORMAL (~1-4F+) TO
RECORD LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ARE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT.
THE WEEKEND... A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH 500MB HEIGHTS UP TO
594DM OVER THE EASTERN CONUS COAST IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY. DAILY
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEA BREEZE DRIVEN SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING
STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
COLLISIONS OCCUR BETWEEN THE SEA BREEZES, AS WELL AS OUTFLOW FROM
PREVIOUS STORMS, ESPECIALLY FROM I-4 EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS. STORM
MOTION WILL GENERALLY BE SLOW AND ERRATIC. GUIDANCE INDICATES
MLCAPE UP TO 1,000-3,200 J/KG, MUCAPE UP TO 2,000-4,000 J/KG, VERY
WEAK 0-6KM SHEAR, ALTHOUGH ENHANCED BY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS,
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES, AND PWAT VALUES UP TO 2.0-2.4"
ON SATURDAY WITH SIMILAR PARAMETERS ON SUNDAY. ADDITIONALLY,
GUIDANCE SHOWS PVA TRAVERSING EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY WHICH WILL ENHANCE LIFT FOR STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP. THUS,
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE TO A FEW STRONG STORMS TO
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING CAPABLE OF FREQUENT TO
EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING, WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-55MPH, AND HEAVY RAINFALL
(1-2" WITH A 1-IN-10 CHANCE OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2"
UP TO 3-4 ") WITH THE POTENTIAL TO RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF
ROADWAYS AND LOW-LYING AREAS (< 5% RISK).
A MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK EXISTS WITH SEASONABLE TO ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND ABOVE NORMAL TO RECORD LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FORECAST. MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO
102-107F DEGREES ARE FORECAST. REMEMBER TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY,
WHICH INCLUDES WEARING LIGHT COLORED CLOTHING, TAKING FREQUENT
BREAKS FROM THE HEAT, STAYING HYDRATED, AND SHIFTING OUTDOOR WORK
AWAY FROM THE HOURS OF 10AM TO 4PM.
MONDAY-THURSDAY... GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS INTO THE NEXT
WORKWEEK WHICH MAKES THE FORECAST MORE UNCERTAIN THAN USUAL,
ESPECIALLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE GFS SHOWS A MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS MONDAY AND INTO MIDWEEK
WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE TROUGH FURTHER NORTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE STATE OF FLORIDA. HOWEVER, LREF TLE-NH CLUSTERS
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH WILL NOT DEEPEN AS
FAR AS THE SOUTHERN US LIKE WHAT THE GFS SHOWS WHICH SUGGESTS THAT
THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR. IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
SCENARIO, HIGH PRESSURE WOULD BUILD OVER THE STATE OF FLORIDA
WITH DAILY SEA BREEZE AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING
STORMS INTO EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PROBABILITY OF A
MAJOR HEATRISK IS GENERALLY BETWEEN 50-90% ALONG AND NORTH OF I-4
AND GENERALLY 30-70% TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF I-4 MONDAY WITH
INCREASING PROBABILITIES AS HEAT BUILDS INTO MID TO LATE WEEK.
GUIDANCE EVEN SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN EXTREME HEATRISK (20-40%
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-4) MID TO LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026
CURRENTLY-SATURDAY... FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING
STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AS WELL AS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS IN THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
A STRONG STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34KTS ON
SATURDAY. EAST WINDS AT 5-10KTS WILL VEER OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT
BEFORE BACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY. SEAS TO 1-2FT WITH UP
TO 3FT OVER THE OFFSHORE (20-60NM) WATERS IS FORECAST.
SUNDAY-TUESDAY... FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME CHOPPY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED OFFSHORE MOVING
SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AS WELL
AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING
STORMS IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST. THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A STRONG STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 34KTS. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
TO 10-15KTS SUNDAY EVENING. SEAS OF 1-2FT WITH UP TO 3 FT OVER
THE VOLUSIA COUNTY WATERS ARE FORECAST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2026
A TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE UNITED STATES' 250TH BIRTHDAY. HIGH
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
EVENING IS EXPECTED, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. HOWEVER, CAMS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO RESOLVE THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY,
WITH VERY LIGHT STEERING FLOW AND WEAK SEA BREEZES LEADING TO
ERRATIC STORM PROPAGATION AND AN UNCERTAIN COLLISION LOCATION.
FOR NOW, HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIME OUT SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE DOMINANT (BUT STILL LIGHT) WEST COAST BREEZE EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND REACHING THE INTERIOR TERMINALS INCLUDING
MCO/SFB BY AROUND 19Z. THEN, A COLLISION NEAR THE COASTAL
TERMINALS AFTER 20Z, WITH TEMPOS LINGERING THROUGH AROUND 1Z
THERE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR, BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT MOST,
IF NOT ALL TERMINALS, ARE EXPECTED TO SEE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
REDUCTIONS, ESPECIALLY IN STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS, AT SOME
POINT BETWEEN 19-01Z. SOME ACTIVITY COULD LINGER ALONG THE
COLLISION, CURRENT THINKING IS NEAR THE COAST, THROUGH 2-3Z.
GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALL BE
POSSIBLE IN THIS SLOW MOVING ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE, WINDS REMAIN
UNDER 10 KTS, INCREASING BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 91 76 92 76 / 50 20 60 30
MCO 93 76 92 76 / 70 30 70 40
MLB 90 77 90 77 / 70 30 60 30
VRB 91 75 91 76 / 70 30 60 20
LEE 93 77 92 77 / 70 30 60 20
SFB 94 77 93 77 / 70 30 70 30
ORL 92 77 92 77 / 70 30 70 40
FPR 90 74 90 75 / 70 30 60 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FEHLING
AVIATION...WISHARD
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