247
FXUS62 KMLB 041122
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
722 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2026
- HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL BUILD WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES
CLIMBING TO 102-107 THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND RESULTING IN A
MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK.
- A HIGH RISK FOR LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS EXISTS AT AREA
BEACHES FROM CAPE CANAVERAL NORTHWARD WITH A MODERATE RISK
CONTINUING SOUTHWARD. HEED THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS, BEACH
PATROL FLAGS, AND SIGNS!
- INCREASED MOISTURE, STRONG DAYTIME HEATING, AND BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
LIGHTNING STORMS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2026
INDEPENDENCE DAY... DEEP MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT HIGH COVERAGE OF
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA TODAY AS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND EVENTUALLY SETTLES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL FAVOR
THE INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WITH A SEA
BREEZE COLLISION FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE PENINSULA
LATE IN THE DAY. THE MORNING STARTS MOSTLY DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S BY NOON. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON, SCATTERED SHOWERS APPROACH FROM THE WEST WHILE THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE BEGINS TO INITIATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS IN VICINITY OF I-95. A SEA BREEZE COLLISION IN
COMBINATION WITH STORM OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS WILL PRODUCE AREAWIDE
PEAK COVERAGE (~70%) OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BETWEEN 4PM-7PM WITH
COVERAGE THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO THE EVENING. WEAK
STEERING FLOW WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR SLOW MOVING OR STATIONARY
STORMS PROMOTING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
MINOR/ NUISANCE FLOODING OF URBAN OR LOW LYING AREAS. OTHERWISE,
TALL STORMS WHICH DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND LOCALIZED DOWNBURST GUSTS OF 45-50 MPH. BE SURE TO
PRACTICE LIGHTNING SAFETY DURING ANY OUTDOOR HOLIDAY FESTIVITIES.
WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS!
OUTSIDE OF STORMS, HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S, AND
PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES INCREASE BETWEEN 102-107F. A WIDESPREAD
MODERATE HEATRISK EXISTS TODAY WITH A MAJOR HEATRISK EXTENDING
ACROSS THE ORLANDO METRO AND THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
FOR MORE INFORMATION ON HEATRISK AND HEAT SAFETY, VISIT HEAT.GOV.
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXISTS AT VOLUSIA AND NORTHERN
BREVARD BEACHES, NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL. A MODERATE RISK
CONTINUES SOUTHWARD INCLUDING SOUTHERN BREVARD AND TREASURE COAST
BEACHES. HEED THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS, BEACH PATROL FLAGS, AND
SIGNS!
SUNDAY-TUESDAY... A MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE MIDWEST U.S.
ON SUNDAY, MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S. MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A
BROAD, WEAK SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH, AND A WEAK FRONT SAGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. A WEAK RIDGE AXIS NEAR OR SOUTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA LOOKS TO
MAINTAIN INFLUENCE OF THE LOCAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN, KEEPING THE TROUGH
AND SURFACE BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE AREA. CONTINUED DEEP MOISTURE AND
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SUPPORT A PATTERN OF HIGH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY. LIGHT FLOW THROUGH THE
COLUMN WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN SLOW
MOVING OR STATIONARY STORMS. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM ALOFT
(-7C TO -6C), OCCASIONAL PULSES OF VORTICITY COULD ALLOW FOR A
LOCALIZED STRONGER STORM CAPABLE OF FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S FOLLOW A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND, INCREASING A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY. PEAK HEAT
INDEX VALUES OF 102-107F SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY NEAR HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY, AND TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED. A MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK WILL AFFECT THOSE WITHOUT
ADEQUATE COOLING AND HYDRATION.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY... MID LEVEL TROUGHING AND THE ASSOCIATED AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY WITH A SUBSEQUENT,
WEAKER SHORTWAVE PASSING THE SOUTHEAST U.S. INTO LATE WEEK.
DESPITE SOME BROADENING OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IN VICINITY OF
THE LOCAL AREA, SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS. A LAYER OF DRY
AIR FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE MID LEVELS MAY REDUCE OVERALL RAIN
CHANCES MID TO LATE WEEK. SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE, RANGING THE LOW TO MID 90S ALONG THE COAST AND MID 90S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2026
FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.
WIND REMAINING 10 KTS OR LESS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS INCREASE 10-
15 KTS EACH EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SEAS MOSTLY 1-2 FT, BUT
OCCASIONALLY BUILD TO 3FT FAR OFFSHORE. WIDELY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST OVER THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY EACH DAY
WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS OFFSHORE MOVING
STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2026
HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS FORECAST TODAY ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA. VCTS BEGINS OVER THE INTERIOR ALONG THE DOMINANT
WEST COAST BREEZE BY AROUND 19Z, WITH A COLLISION NEAR TO JUST
WEST OF THE COAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPOS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED
AT ALL LOCATIONS, WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN SEEING MVFR/IFR
REDUCTIONS EAST OF ISM. HOWEVER, STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW AND
ERRATIC. CONVECTION ALONG THE COLLISION COULD LINGER THROUGH
AROUND 2Z BEFORE DIMINISHING/MOVING OFFSHORE. GUSTY WINDS,
LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. LIGHT WINDS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS INCREASE TO AROUND 8-10 KTS
BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 91 76 92 76 / 50 20 60 30
MCO 93 76 92 76 / 70 30 70 40
MLB 90 77 90 77 / 70 30 60 30
VRB 91 75 91 76 / 70 30 60 20
LEE 93 77 92 77 / 70 30 60 20
SFB 94 77 93 77 / 70 30 70 30
ORL 92 77 92 77 / 70 30 70 40
FPR 90 74 90 75 / 70 30 60 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LAW
AVIATION...WISHARD
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