617
FXUS62 KMLB 210549
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
149 AM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2026
- TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO (TD 2) IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THIS WEEK. THE MAIN IMPACT TO EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL BE BANDS OF SCATTERED, GUSTY SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH TODAY.
- STORM HAZARDS WILL INCLUDE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 55 MPH AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. MINOR, LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. LOWER COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO MID TO LATE WEEK.
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH
NEXT WEEK, WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES OF 100-107F AREAWIDE. PRACTICE
HEAT SAFETY; ALWAYS LOOK BEFORE YOU LOCK!
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2026
REST OF TODAY-TUESDAY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TD 2 SPINNING OVER
THE NE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. BANDS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
LIGHTNING STORMS ON THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE AREA OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN QUICK-MOVING AT AROUND 25-35 MPH.
THUS, IT HASN'T TAKEN MUCH TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH,
AIDED BY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING, WITH A COLLISION WITH THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE NEAR THE VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST. MAIN
THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH AND LIGHTNING
STRIKES, THOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT A QUICK SPIN UP ALONG ANY BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS. CONVECTION LOOKS TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. HOWEVER, A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS OVERNIGHT AND MAY BRUSH THE COAST AT
TIMES. LOWS TONIGHT REMAIN WARM, IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
TD 2 (PERHAPS AS A TS) LOOKS TO LINGER OVER THE NE GULF TUESDAY.
HOWEVER, WILL SEE SOME DRIFT TO THE WEST BEGIN, AS SURFACE RIDGING
WEAKENS OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOCALLY, WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE BREEZY SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOP, WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH. BUT, DRIER AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO LIMIT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS. IN FACT, MOST AREAS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY, WITH JUST
20-30% POPS GENERALLY WEST OF DAYTONA/ORLANDO. THE BEST CHANCE
APPEARS TO BE ALONG A SEA BREEZE COLLISION NEAR ORLANDO IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. ISOLATED COVERAGE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
OVER THE WATERS. GUSTY WINDS NEAR 50 MPH WILL REMAIN A THREAT
WITH ANY STORMS, AS STEERING FLOW WILL CONTINUE SUPPORT QUICK-
MOVING ACTIVITY AND INCREASING DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS BUILDS
DCAPE TO NEAR 1000-1100 J/KG. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID-90S AND HEAT INDICES
102-107 F.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS BUILDS WESTWARD
TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MIDWEEK, AS TD 2 CONTINUES WESTWARD.
OVERALL DRY AIR LINGERS OVER THE LOCAL AREA, AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS
ALOFT. THUS, BELOW AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY (GENERALLY 20-30% OR LESS). ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT
DEVELOP ARE MAINLY FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS ALONG THE
SEA BREEZES. SOUTHERLY FLOW WEAKENS WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT,
FAVORING A MORE TYPICAL SEA BREEZE PATTERN DRIVEN BY THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE. WITH LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, TEMPERATURES
CREEP UP A DEGREE OR TWO OVER THE INTERIOR, APPROACHING THE UPPER
90S IN SOME SPOTS. DESPITE THE SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR, INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND VERY WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALLOW FOR BUILDING
POCKETS OF EXTREME HEATRISK OVER THE INTERIOR. MAKE SURE TO FACTOR
HEAT SAFETY INTO YOUR PLANS THIS WEEK.
FRIDAY-MONDAY...(PREVIOUS) UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
PLAINS AND THE DEEP SOUTH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS A TROUGH OVER
THE MIDWEST SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE, THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES
OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. AN ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY WILL DIG
THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH INTO LATE WEEK AND INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA
BEFORE STALLING OVER THE WEEKEND. LOCALLY, MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
OVER THE AREA FROM THE STALLED BOUNDARY. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS
SOME UNCERTAINTY TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL PUSH INTO FLORIDA, AND
WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT AND WHERE IT
STALLS. FOR NOW HAVE A LOW (20-30 PERCENT) CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
STORMS ON FRIDAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH, AND A LOW TO MEDIUM
(20-50 PERCENT) CHANCE AREA-WIDE FOR THE WEEKEND. DAILY SEA
BREEZES AT THE COAST, THOUGH PREVAILING FLOW LOOKS TO VEER
SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE,
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S, WITH SATURDAY BEING
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND. COUPLED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY, PEAK
HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE ABOVE 100 F. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 207 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2026
TODAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS 15-20 KTS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
TIGHT ON THE FRINGES OF TD 2. OTHERWISE, IMPACTS TO THE LOCAL
WATERS WILL BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FAST-MOVING
SHOWERS AND STORMS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION, AS WINDS
MAY HOVER NEAR 20 KTS AT TIMES. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LOCALLY
ENHANCE WINDS AND SEAS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE NEED FOR A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING. SEAS 2-4 FT.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...TD 2 MOVES WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
THIS WEEK, AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES, SOUTHERLY FLOW DIMINISHES, WITH A MORE TYPICAL
SEA BREEZE PATTERN DEVELOPING INTO THE WEEKEND AND WINDS 10-15
KTS. SEAS FALL TO 1-3 FT. DRIER AIR WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS THROUGH FRIDAY, BEFORE INCREASING MOISTURE LEADS TO
MORE NORMAL COVERAGE THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY BY MID MORNING,
INCREASING TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY
AFTER 18Z. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FROM MCO, ISM, SFB STARTING AT 20Z AND
LEE STARTING AT 18Z. HAVE MAINTAINED PROB30 FOR LEE STARTING AT
18Z FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WITH TSRA. MAY NEED TO ADDED PROB30 FOR
THE GREATER ORLANDO AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. VCSH FOR ALL THE
COASTAL SITES, STARTING 20/22Z. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DECREASE INTO
LATE AFTERNOON, BECOMING AROUND 10 KT, BEFORE INTERIOR SITES
SETTLE AROUND 5 KT INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 93 76 93 76 / 20 20 10 0
MCO 95 76 96 77 / 30 20 10 0
MLB 92 77 91 77 / 20 20 10 0
VRB 93 75 92 76 / 20 20 10 0
LEE 93 76 95 77 / 40 20 10 10
SFB 95 76 95 77 / 30 20 10 0
ORL 95 77 95 77 / 30 20 10 0
FPR 92 75 91 75 / 20 20 20 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WISHARD
AVIATION...WATSON
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