192
FXUS62 KMLB 212332
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
732 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 233 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026
- DRIER AIR WILL LEAD TO LOWER THAN NORMAL SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES THROUGH THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE
INTO LATE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL THEN ALLOW RAIN
CHANCES TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.
- NEAR TO ABOVE-NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES EXCEEDING 100F EACH DAY.
PRACTICING HEAT SAFETY WILL BE KEY TO AVOID HEAT-RELATED
ILLNESS!
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 233 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026
CURRENTLY-TONIGHT...SOME DRIER AIR IS NUDGING ITS WAY IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST, WITH GOES-19 TPW IMAGERY SHOWING GREATER MOISTURE (PW 1.6-
1.7") FOCUSED INLAND. THIS SHOULD KEEP A MAJORITY OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS (POPS 20-40%) THAT FORM THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON AND TOWARD SUNSET ACROSS THE INTERIOR, ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. A PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW EAST OF TS
BERTHA THATS CENTERED SOUTH OF THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE, WILL
TRANSPORT THIS ACTIVITY NORTHWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH THIS
ACTIVITY DIMINISHING BY MIDNIGHT. DCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500
J/KG AND AN THE ELEVATED SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW (15-20 KTS) MAY
STILL ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS TO DEVELOP, WITH THE MAIN
THREATS BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-50 MPH AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY ALSO
LEAD TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1-3" IN SPOTS.
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THEN FORECAST OVERNIGHT, WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
(20%) CHANCE FOR ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHERN TREASURE
COAST LATE TONIGHT. REMAINING WARM TONIGHT, WITH LOWS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...TS BERTHA WILL CONTINUE A GRADUAL WESTWARD
MOTION THROUGH MIDWEEK, EITHER ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST. THE SFC ATLANTIC RIDGE AT THE SAME TIME GRADUALLY
EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL FL, WITH RIDGE AXIS LIFTING NORTHWARD. THIS
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO WEAKEN AS THEY GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ONSHORE,
BACKING TO THE S/SE TOMORROW AND E/SE INTO THURSDAY. SHOWER AND
STORM COVERAGE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL OVERALL THROUGH MIDWEEK, AS
DRIER AIR EAST OF BERTHA LINGERS. GREATEST CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY (POPS UP TO 30-40%) WILL BE
ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND TREASURE COAST REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON, AND THEN FOCUSED WEST OF ORLANDO WITH THE SEA BREEZE
COLLISION NEAR TO AFTER SUNSET. THE MORE DOMINANT ONSHORE FLOW ON
THURSDAY SHOULD LOWER RAIN CHANCES EVEN MORE, WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
(20%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CURRENTLY FORECAST ACROSS THE
INTERIOR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE DRIER AIR ALOFT
WILL STILL KEEP A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS, PRODUCING
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL, IN THE LOW 90S ALONG
THE COAST AND MORE WIDESPREAD MID 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE DRIER
AIR ALOFT SHOULD LOWER DEWPOINTS AS MIXING INCREASES INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT SHOULD STILL RANGE FROM 100-107F.
THOSE SPENDING EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME OUTDOORS WILL NEED TO REMAIN
ADEQUATELY HYDRATED AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE OR AN AIR-
CONDITIONED BUILDING TO AVOID HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS CONTINUING IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
FRIDAY-MONDAY...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US LATE THIS WEEK, WITH A TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN US GRADUALLY DIGGING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS FLORIDA
INTO THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS ON FRIDAY, WITH THE HIGH GRADUALLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD THIS
WEEKEND AS A LOW MOVES OFFSHORE THE CAROLINAS AND DRAGS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THE BOUNDARY WILL
STALL ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY, CONTINUING TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS THE PENINSULA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT WEAKENS. LOCALLY,
LINGERING DRY AIR ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES A
BIT LIMITED ACROSS THE NORTH, WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE
TREASURE COAST AND NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE CAUSING A RETURN OF NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES. BY THIS WEEKEND, A MOIST AIR MASS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE TYPICAL DIURNAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN IS FORECAST, WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PRIMARILY BEING DRIVEN
BY THE SEA BREEZES AND THEIR INTERACTIONS. A RETURN OF WESTERLY FLOW
WILL ALSO FAVOR HIGHER COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
PENINSULA NEAR THE COAST. BY MONDAY, THE MOISTURE FROM THE DECAYING
BOUNDARY WILL ARRIVE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA, WITH CONTINUED
NEAR-NORMAL RAIN CHANCES FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AREAWIDE. OVERALL, SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH EACH
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH LINGERING ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH SOME INDICATION THAT THE
INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVERAGE WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO NORMAL ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. PEAK HEAT INDICES WILL
CONTINUE TO EXCEED 100F AREAWIDE, WITH SOME LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY
NEARING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. CONFIDENCE IN THIS REMAINS LOW
THOUGH, SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 233 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026
TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY...TS BERTHA WILL CONTINUE A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION
NEAR TO JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. SMALL
CRAFT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE VOLUSIA
COUNTY WATERS INTO TONIGHT, AS S/SE WINDS AROUND 15-20 KNOTS
PERSIST. ELSEWHERE, WINDS WILL MOSTLY RANGE FROM 10-15 KNOTS THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS THEN REMAIN OUT OF THE S/SE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AROUND
10-15 KNOTS FOR MUCH OF THE WATERS, BUT MAY ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO
15-20 KNOTS ACROSS THE NEARSHORE VOLUSIA COUNTY WATERS INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2-4 FEET. IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY, BUT
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STILL DEVELOP, MAINLY OVER THE GULF
STREAM WATERS.
THURSDAY-SUNDAY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK AND THEN SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE WEEKEND.
PREDOMINANT ONSHORE WINDS INTO LATE WEEK, ARE FORECAST TO VEER MORE
OFFSHORE INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT WINDS WILL STILL BECOME S/SE EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FORMS. WIND SPEEDS
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS, WITH SEAS 1-3 FEET. DRIER AIR WILL
CONTINUE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY, AND THEN EXPECT A
GRADUAL RISE IN RAIN AND STORM CHANCES FROM FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AS MOISTURE INCREASES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 731 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. VCTS IS
FORECAST THROUGH 03Z AT THE TAFS ALONG & NEAR I-4 WITH TEMPO TSRA
BETWEEN 00Z/01Z. SSE WINDS AT 10-14KTS WITH GUSTS TO 15-20KTS ARE
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN, ESPECIALLY AFTER 03Z BEFORE INCREASING
AFTER 13Z WED AT 8-10KTS. VCSH IS FORECAST AFTER 21Z/22Z ALONG &
N OF I-4 WED; VCTS MAY BE ADDED LATER IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 76 93 76 92 / 20 10 0 10
MCO 76 96 77 96 / 30 20 20 20
MLB 77 91 77 90 / 10 20 0 10
VRB 75 91 75 91 / 10 20 10 10
LEE 77 95 77 95 / 20 10 30 20
SFB 76 95 77 95 / 30 20 10 20
ORL 77 95 77 95 / 30 20 20 20
FPR 75 91 75 91 / 10 30 10 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WEITLICH
AVIATION...FEHLING
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