054
FXUS62 KMLB 231735
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
135 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
- DRIER AIR WILL RESULT IN LOWER THAN NORMAL SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES TODAY. INCREASING MOISTURE INTO LATE WEEK AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WILL THEN ALLOW RAIN CHANCES TO RETURN TO NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.
- NEAR TO ABOVE-NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES EXCEEDING 100F EACH DAY.
PRACTICING HEAT SAFETY WILL BE KEY TO AVOID HEAT-RELATED
ILLNESS!
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
TODAY... A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
LIFTS INTO NORTH FLORIDA, KEEPING EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE
LOCALLY. A FEW SHOWERS WHICH DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS MAY
MOVE ONSHORE PORTIONS OF THE TREASURE COAST EARLY IN THE DAY.
OTHERWISE, A DRY AIRMASS (PWAT ~1.4-1.6") WILL FAVOR BELOW NORMAL
DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES, AND LOW COVERAGE (10-20%) OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO PORTIONS OF THE FAR INTERIOR
AND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE PENINSULA. AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORM
ACROSS THE INTERIOR THAT MIXES WITH DRY AIR ALOFT WILL BE CAPABLE
OF LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS OF 40-50 MPH. WITH LIMITED RAIN CHANCES,
HOT CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. HIGHS WILL RANGE THE LOW 90S ALONG
THE COAST AND NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE WHILE REACHING THE MID TO UPPER
90S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH INTERIOR IN VICINITY OF I-4. THE
DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD AID IN KEEPING PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, AND VALUES ARE FORECAST TO MOSTLY RANGE
100-105F.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY... ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES ON FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS REMAINS NEAR TO NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. MOISTURE IS
ADVECTED FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES SOUTH
OF THE AREA. ROUNDS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY MOVE
ONSHORE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BREVARD AND TREASURE COAST EARLY
FRIDAY BEFORE COVERAGE LOOKS TO BECOME MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN INTO
THE AFTERNOON. POCKETS OF DRIER ARE MAY LIMIT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH WITH SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS (~30-60%)
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS PRIMARILY FORECAST FROM
SANFORD/LEESBURG SOUTHWARD. THE LOCAL PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT
SATURDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE IS NUDGED SOUTH AND WEST. IN RESPONSE, WINDS
TURN OFFSHORE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. THE PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE
REMAINS SPREAD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA, AND SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST ALONG A SEA BREEZE
COLLISION WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE FROM THE ORLANDO METRO
SOUTHWARD (40-60%). A FEW STRONGER STORMS EACH DAY WILL BE CAPABLE
OF GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL A DEGREE OR
TWO ON FRIDAY, AND HIGHS MOSTLY RANGE THE LOW TO MID 90S. HOWEVER,
WARMER TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RETURN SATURDAY AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHIFT
OFFSHORE (SOUTHWEST) AND THE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SLIDES
SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. LOW 90S
CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST AND NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE ON SATURDAY WHILE
TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE NORTH INTERIOR
INCLUDING AREAS OF THE ORLANDO METRO. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR PEAK
HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA ON SATURDAY, AND A MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK WILL IMPACT THOSE
WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING AND HYDRATION.
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY... DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
SAGS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. OFFSHORE FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
WILL FAVOR A SEA BREEZE COLLISION ACROSS THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
PENINSULA LATE EACH DAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A PATTERN OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
TREND A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS, RANGING THE
LOW TO MID 90S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
MOSTLY FAVORABLE WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY, MAINTAINING A PERIOD OF ONSHORE (EASTERLY) WINDS
AROUND 5-12 KTS. BY THIS WEEKEND, THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL WATERS. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP SATURDAY
BEFORE PREVAILING OFFSHORE (SOUTHWEST) FLOW (7-12 KTS) DEVELOPS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS LOCALLY INCREASE AND SHIFT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS EACH AFTERNOON. SEAS MOSTLY
HOLD AROUND 2-3 FT, OCCASIONALLY INCREASING UP TO 4 FT FAR OFFSHORE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE TODAY,
BECOMING SCATTERED IN COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, BUILDING IN COVERAGE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING
STORMS. ESE WINDS AT 8-10KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 16KTS ARE FORECAST
TO WEAKEN INTO THE EVENING HOURS TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE,
ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z-03Z BEFORE INCREASING TO 8-10KTS AFTER 14Z
FRI. VCTS IS FORECAST AT KMCO AFTER 18Z FRI.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 76 90 76 93 / 10 10 0 20
MCO 76 95 76 97 / 0 30 10 50
MLB 78 89 77 91 / 10 40 10 50
VRB 78 90 76 92 / 20 50 10 60
LEE 77 95 77 95 / 10 20 0 20
SFB 76 94 76 96 / 0 20 0 30
ORL 76 94 77 96 / 0 30 10 40
FPR 77 90 75 91 / 30 50 10 60
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LAW
AVIATION...FEHLING
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