067
FXUS62 KMLB 240643
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
243 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 243 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
- GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL ALLOW RAIN CHANCES TO SLOWLY RETURN TO NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES.
- HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WILL CONTINUE, WITH PEAK HEAT
INDICES REACHING 102-107F EACH AFTERNOON, AND POTENTIALLY
NEARING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (108-110F) FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 243 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
CURRENT-TONIGHT...GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH,
ESP SOUTH OF ORLANDO. ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS WILL PUSH ONTO THE COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING, ESP SOUTH OF THE CAPE, WITH INCREASING
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INLAND LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON (MAINLY
SOUTH OF MELBOURNE). HIGHEST POPS 30-60% WILL FAVOR SOUTHERN
OSCEOLA AND SOUTHERN BREVARD SOUTHWARD TOWARD LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND
ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST. CHANCES TYPICALLY LESS THAN 20% NORTH
OF MELBOURNE. INITIAL STORM STEERING FROM EAST TO WEST 10-15 MPH,
BUT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY VEER TO OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THRU THE
AFTN. PRIMARY STORM IMPACTS WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY
WINDS LOCALLY, AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. INSTABILITY APPEARS A BIT
LIMITED WITH 500 MB TEMPS ONLY -4.5 TO -5.5C. BY EARLY EVENING,
MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WEST OF THE KISSIMMEE RIVER WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT OVER LAND. GENERALLY ERLY WINDS 6-12 MPH
(FEW HIGHER GUSTS) DURING THE DAY BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN IN THE
EVENING.
HOT & HUMID WITH U80S TO AROUND 90F AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND L90S
INLAND, WITH SOME M90S NEAR ORLANDO AND NORTH/WEST FROM HERE. PEAK
HEAT INDICES 100-107F WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK
AREAWIDE. WARM & MUGGY OVERNIGHT WITH PERSISTENT LOWS IN THE 70S.
SAT-SUN...DEEP MOISTURE (PWATS INCREASING > 2") CONTINUES TO TAKE
HOLD ACROSS ECFL AREAWIDE. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES IN
PLACE. THERE SHOULD BE A WELL-DEFINED SEA BREEZE COLLISION LATE EACH
DAY ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. THIS WILL PROMOTE HIGHER
COVERAGE THAN ON FRI AND FURTHER NORTHWARD (30-60% - HIGHEST AROUND
LAKE OKEE). STORM STEERING FLOW WILL BE LIGHTER THIS WEEKEND WITH
LIKELY ERRATIC MOVEMENT WITH STRONGER BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. ASIDE
FROM MAIN IMPACTS OF LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS LOCALLY 40-55
MPH, AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS; WE MAY BE BETTER IN LINE WITH NEEDING
TO MONITOR ANY MINOR/NUISANCE FLOODING POTENTIAL WITH A FEW CELLS.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS SAT AND LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS SUN AHEAD OF
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND SLOW PUSH INLAND. WINDS SHOULD FALL TO
LIGHT/VARIABLE EACH NIGHT.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE L-M90S EACH DAY, WITH U90S WITHIN PLAY SAT
AFTN NEAR/NW OF I-4. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA (108-110F FOR HEAT INDICES), OTHERWISE VALUES WILL CONTINUE
104-107F AHEAD OF PRECIP/SEA BREEZE PASSAGE. WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO MAJOR HEATRISK (ISOLD EXTREME) CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING AND HYDRATION. LOWS CONTINUE
IN THE 70S.
MON-THU...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INFLUENCE CONTINUES THRU THIS
PERIOD, THOUGH THE AXIS REMAINS SOUTH OF CENTRAL FL. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTH TOWARD NORTH FL
NEAR/PAST MID-WEEK. OVERALL MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THRU THE
PERIOD SURGING NORTHWARD MID-WEEK ALONG AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.
OVERALL FLOW OFFSHORE, WITH LATE DAY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS FOCUSED
ACROSS THE EASTERN FL PENINSULA MON AND WILL SEE IF THE FLOW IS
TOO STRONG FOR THE ECSB TO EVEN FORM TUE-THU, THOUGH THIS REMAINS
FAR ENOUGH OUT WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE JUST YET. SEE NO CHANGE IN
THE DIURNAL SCT-NMRS (40-70%) SHOWER-STORM PATTERN. HIGHS CONTINUE
IN THE L-M90S WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES CONTINUING TO AVERAGE
102-107F EACH AFTERNOON AHEAD OF SEA BREEZE/STORMS. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR AS PORTIONS OF ECFL COULD FLIRT WITH HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 243 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
THRU TUE...THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS INFLUENCE WILL REMAIN WEAK INTO NEXT
WEEK, BUT SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY, THEN BEGIN TO SLIDE
SOUTHWARD ON SAT REMAINING SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS SUN-TUE.
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY FAVORABLE DURING THIS TIME
WITH WINDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KTS AS THE PGRAD REMAINS WEAK. ERLY
WINDS TODAY WITH WINDS MORE PREDOMINANTLY OFFSHORE SUN-TUE, BUT
WILL WITNESS SEA BREEZE FORMATION EACH DAY THRU AT LEAST MON WITH
WINDS "BACKING" ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST AND PERHAPS MORE SOUTHERLY
OVER THE OPEN ATLC DURING THE DAY. SEAS MAINLY 1-3 FT.
INCREASING SHOWER/LIGHTNING STORM POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE SURGES INTO THE AREA. COULD BEGIN TO SEE
OFFSHORE-MOVING CONVECTION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS
AND SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER INVOF CONVECTION.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE COASTAL
ATLANTIC WATERS FROM CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD EARLY THIS MORNING,
AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO PUSH ONSHORE TODAY.
MOSTLY VCSH FROM TIX SOUTHWARD WITH A SHORT WINDOW FOR VCTS AT
MLB AND THE TREASURE COAST TERMINALS AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS
AND PASSES INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY DRY ACROSS THE
NORTH, BUT HAVE A MENTION OF VCTS AT ISM AND VCSH AT MCO AFTER
18Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY IN THE DAY BECOME ESTABLISHED
OUT OF THE EAST BY THIS AFTERNOON, INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KTS
WITH THE SEA BREEZE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 91 75 94 77 / 0 0 30 20
MCO 95 76 97 78 / 10 10 30 30
MLB 90 77 91 77 / 20 10 30 10
VRB 90 76 92 75 / 30 10 50 10
LEE 96 77 95 79 / 0 0 40 20
SFB 94 76 96 78 / 0 0 40 20
ORL 95 77 96 79 / 10 0 30 30
FPR 90 76 92 75 / 40 10 50 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SEDLOCK
AVIATION...LAW
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