196
FXUS62 KMLB 241846
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
246 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
- GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL ALLOW RAIN CHANCES TO SLOWLY RETURN TO NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES.
- HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WILL CONTINUE, WITH PEAK HEAT
INDICES REACHING 102-107F EACH AFTERNOON, AND POTENTIALLY
NEARING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (108-110F) FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
CURRENTLY-TONIGHT...WHILE THE 10Z SOUNDING AT THE CAPE SHOWED PW
VALUES AROUND 1.6 INCHES THIS MORNING, GOES-19 TPW IMAGERY SHOWS
DEEPER MOISTURE (PW AROUND 2 INCHES) HAS BEEN OVERSPREADING THE AREA
FROM THE EAST WITH A WEAK INVERTED SFC TROUGH. DEEPEST MOISTURE HAS
BEEN CONCENTRATED ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA,
WITH DRIER AIR STILL NUDGING ITS WAY IN ACROSS LAKE/VOLUSIA
COUNTIES. THEREFORE, GREATEST SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST, MOSTLY INLAND
THROUGH OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND SOUTHERN OSCEOLA COUNTY. HOWEVER,
CAN'T RULE OUT ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO FARTHER
NORTH THROUGH THE ORLANDO METRO AREA AND THE CAPE THIS AFTERNOON.
MAIN STORM THREATS FROM ANY ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS WILL BE GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 40-45 MPH, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
OF 1-2 INCHES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD WEST OF THE AREA INTO THE
EVENING, BUT LINGERING ONSHORE FLOW MAY STILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE TREASURE COAST TONIGHT. LOWS
WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE AREA,
WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE REGION INTO THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A DEVELOPING OFFSHORE FLOW THAT WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN INTO
SUNDAY. LOW LEVEL SW WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL REMAIN WEAK, ALLOWING
FOR THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO SHIFT INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON,
COLLIDING WITH THE WEST COAST BREEZE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AS
OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASES, THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IF IT FORMS WILL
LIKELY STALL NEAR TO EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR FOCUSING BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND WITH SEA BREEZE COLLISIONS FOCUSED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA THIS WILL LEAD TO A RISE IN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THIS
WEEKEND. POPS INCREASE TO 30-50% FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND
UP TO 70% ON SUNDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE (PW VALUES > 2.0 INCHES) AND
WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2-4 INCHES EACH DAY, WHICH MAY RESULT IN MOSTLY
MINOR FLOODING. A MARGINAL RISK (5-14% CHANCE) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA FOR SUNDAY WHEN HIGHER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST. STRONG WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S. CURRENT FORECAST HAS PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND
102-107F FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, BUT THE ADDED MOISTURE MAY PUSH HEAT
INDEX VALUES A LITTLE HIGHER TO 108-110F, WHICH MAY REQUIRE A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR POTIONS OF THE REGION. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO MAJOR
HEATRISK, WITH LOCALIZED EXTREME HEATRISK CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPACT THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING AND HYDRATION. LOWS
CONTINUE IN THE 70S.
MONDAY-THURSDAY...(MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING INFLUENCE CONTINUES THRU THIS PERIOD, THOUGH THE
AXIS REMAINS SOUTH OF CENTRAL FL. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTH TOWARD NORTH FL NEAR/PAST MID-WEEK.
OVERALL MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THRU THE PERIOD SURGING
NORTHWARD MID-WEEK ALONG AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. OVERALL FLOW
OFFSHORE FORECAST, WITH LATE DAY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS FOCUSED
ACROSS THE EASTERN FL PENINSULA AT LEAST MON AND WILL SEE IF THE
FLOW IS TOO STRONG FOR THE ECSB TO EVEN FORM TUE-THU, THOUGH THIS
REMAINS FAR ENOUGH OUT WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE JUST YET. NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS
CONTINUE IN THE L-M90S WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES CONTINUING TO
AVERAGE 102-107F EACH AFTERNOON AHEAD OF SEA BREEZE/STORMS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE NEED OF ANY HEAT ADVISORIES, AS
PORTIONS OF ECFL COULD STILL SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES REACH AROUND
108-110F.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND AND REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO BECOME OFFSHORE
(W/SW) FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BUT FOR AT LEAST SATURDAY WILL
STILL BECOME E/SE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
FORMS AND MOVES INLAND. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO HIGHER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR OFFSHORE
MOVING STRONGER STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING, ESPECIALLY FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, BOATING CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN MOSTLY FAVORABLE AS WINDS SPEEDS GENERALLY REMAIN
BELOW 15 KNOTS AND SEAS RANGE FROM 1-3 FEET (POTENTIALLY UP TO 4
FEET WELL OFFSHORE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK).
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL STORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON. LOW (20-40%)
COVERAGE OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ESP TREASURE COAST TERMINALS,
OTHERWISE MOST AREAS DRY WITH EAST-NORTHEAST BREEZES 5-12 KT AND
PRIMARILY VFR. SATURDAY AFTERNOON OFFERS SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES
(40-50%) FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MCO IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
TIMEFRAME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 76 94 77 92 / 0 40 30 70
MCO 76 96 78 94 / 10 40 40 70
MLB 77 91 77 92 / 10 30 20 70
VRB 76 92 75 93 / 10 40 10 70
LEE 77 96 79 93 / 0 50 30 70
SFB 76 96 78 94 / 10 30 40 70
ORL 77 96 79 93 / 10 40 40 70
FPR 76 91 75 92 / 10 40 10 70
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WEITLICH
AVIATION...HEIL
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