587
FXUS62 KMLB 251702
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
102 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2026
- GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL ALLOW RAIN CHANCES TO SLOWLY RETURN TO NEAR AND
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.
- HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WILL CONTINUE, WITH PEAK HEAT
INDICES REACHING 102-107F EACH AFTERNOON, AND POTENTIALLY
NEARING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (108-110F) FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2026
CURRENT-TONIGHT...HOT & HUMID WITH L90S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
M90S (ISOLD U90S) ESP INTO OSCEOLA NORTHWARD ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
PEAK HEAT INDICES 102-107F (ISOLD TO SCT 108-110F) WITH WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK (ISOLD EXTREME) AREAWIDE. HAVE HOISTED A
HEAT ADVISORY FOR VOLUSIA, LAKE, SEMINOLE, ORANGE, AND BREVARD
COUNTIES FOR 12PM-7PM TODAY.
DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE INTO ECFL. ISOLD TO WDLY SCT
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS MAY OCCASIONALLY PUSH
ONTO THE COAST (ESP CAPE SOUTHWARD) THIS MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING. MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA WITH 500 MB TEMPS ONLY - 5.0C TO -5.5C
WITH NO NOTABLE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES NEARBY. SURFACE HEATING,
MOISTURE, AND LATE DAY/EVENING BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WILL BE THE
CATALYSTS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION LATER TODAY. LIGHT/VARIABLE
MORNING WINDS WILL TURN ONSHORE AS THE ECSB PUSHES INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON WITH STRONGEST COLLISIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL
PENINSULA. STORM STEERING LIGHT/VARIABLE (UNDER 5 MPH) SO ERRATIC
MOVEMENT MAY TAKE PLACE FROM STRONGER COLLISIONS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE A PRIMARY THREAT DUE TO SLOW/INCONSISTENT
MOVEMENT OF CELLS. LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL
ALSO BE IN PLAY. WILL PAY CLOSE ATTENTION IN LOCALIZED TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS AS QUICK 1-3" PRECIP TOTALS (PERHAPS 4") MAY OCCUR.
POPS 20-50% WITH HIGHEST CHANCES LIKELY FROM NEAR ORLANDO
SOUTHWARD AND PERHAPS ONLY 10-20% FOR MUCH OF VOLUSIA COUNTY.
ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN THRU MID-LATE EVENING. WARM & MUGGY
OVERNIGHT WITH PERSISTENT LOWS IN THE 70S.
SUN-SUN NIGHT...DEEP MOISTURE (PWATS WELL ABOVE 2") TAKE GRIP ACROSS
ECFL AREAWIDE. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES IN PLACE WITH
LIGHT W/NW FLOW. OFFSHORE FLOW IS RELATIVELY DEEP, ALBEIT LIGHT, AND
EXPECT THE ECSB TO DEVELOP BUT IT COULD BE DELAYED WITH MINIMAL
MOVEMENT INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. GREATEST BOUNDARY COLLISIONS
WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN PENINSULA LATE ON THIS DAY WITH NWRLY
STEERING FLOW 10-15 MPH WHICH WILL TAKE ACTIVITY TO THE COAST AND
ACROSS THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT 70% AREAWIDE
AND THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED ALL OF ECFL IN A
MARGINAL (5-14%) EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK. HEAVY RAINFALL (2-4"
LOCALLY) WITH LOCALIZED MINOR/NUISANCE FLOODING WILL BE A MAIN
IMPACT FROM NMRS LIGHTNING STORMS. LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY
WINDS 40-55 MPH LOCALLY WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
IMPULSES IN THE 500 MB FLOW ALOFT WILL AID CONVECTION AS MID-LEVEL
RIDGING BREAKS DOWN. 500 MB TEMPS FORECAST -5.5C TO -6.0C.
MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE L-M90S WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES APPROACHING
102-107F AHEAD OF ANY SEA BREEZES OR PRECIPITATION. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (108-110F). WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO MAJOR HEATRISK (ISOLD EXTREME) CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT
THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING AND HYDRATION. LOWS CONTINUE IN THE
70S.
MON-FRI...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING CONTINUES WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE
AXIS REMAINING SOUTH OF ECFL THRU THIS PERIOD. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTH TOWARD NORTH FL NEAR/PAST
MID-WEEK AS VERY DEEP MOISTURE (PWATS WELL IN EXCESS OF 2")
CONTINUES TO SURGE ACROSS THE AREA. OFFSHORE FLOW APPEARS TO
DOMINATE THIS WEEK, WITH POSSIBLE ECSB APPEARANCES ON MON/TUE, BUT
INLAND MOVEMENT WILL BE FUTILE. THE ECSB MAY BE HARD-PRESSED TO
DEVELOP AT ALL WED-FRI AS LOW-LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASES. WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONCENTRATING FURTHER WESTWARD,
TROUGHINESS WILL ALIGN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS, THUS ALLOWING
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES TO DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA IN
THE NW/N FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL AID IN DAILY CONVECTION. NMRS
(60-70%) DIURNAL POPS MOST DAYS IN THE EXTENDED. WILL LIKELY
NEED TO FOCUS ON HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL EACH DAY ON TOP OF
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS WITH STORMS.
NO REAL BREAK IN SIGHT WITH HIGH TEMPS (90-95F) AND PEAK HEAT
INDICES CONTINUING TO AVERAGE 102-107F EACH AFTERNOON AHEAD OF SEA
BREEZE/STORMS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE NEED FOR ANY HEAT
ADVISORIES, AS PORTIONS OF ECFL COULD STILL SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES
REACH AROUND 108-110F.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2026
THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS INFLUENCE REMAINS WEAK INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH
FOCUS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY TODAY, THEN SLIDING SOUTH OF
THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. BOATING CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY FAVORABLE DURING THIS TIME WITH WINDS GENERALLY AOB
15 KTS AS THE PGRAD REMAINS WEAK. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW EARLY TODAY
WILL "BACK" ONSHORE INTO THE AFTERNOON, THEN RETURNING OFFSHORE
(SW) TONIGHT AND REMAINING MOSTLY AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT INTO AT
LEAST MID NEXT WEEK. SW WINDS TUE NIGHT/WED COULD APPROACH 15-20
KTS OFFSHORE PROMPTING CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS HERE. THERE MAY BE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE EACH DAY INTO TUE, BUT INLAND
MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE STYMIED AS EARLY AS ON SUN AND
PROBABLY WON'T DEVELOP AT ALL BY WED AS LOW-LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW
(ABOVE THE SURFACE) STRENGTHENS. SEAS CONTINUE MAINLY 1-3 FT, BUT
COULD SEE SMALL STRETCHES OF 4 FT WELL OFFSHORE AT TIMES.
INCREASING SHOWER/LIGHTNING STORM POTENTIAL BY SUN AND INTO NEXT
WEEK AS MOISTURE SURGES INTO THE AREA. COULD BEGIN TO SEE DIURNAL
OFFSHORE-MOVING CONVECTION BY SUN WITH THIS TREND CONTINUING INTO
THE WEEK AHEAD. WINDS AND SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER INVOF CONVECTION.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 102 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2026
ALREADY HAVE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR OUR TREASURE
COAST TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. FOCUS SHOULD SHIFT WEST OF THOSE
TERMINALS AFTER 21Z, WITH SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
NEAR MCO CLOSER TO THAT TIME AND THROUGH SUNSET. LIGHT WINDS
TODAY, BCMG ESE AT THE COASTAL SITES UP TO 12 KT. QUIET CONDS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
MUCH GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPOS WILL BE REQUIRED IN LATER UPDATES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 77 94 76 92 / 10 60 40 70
MCO 78 96 77 94 / 20 70 30 70
MLB 76 92 76 92 / 10 60 30 70
VRB 74 93 75 93 / 10 50 20 60
LEE 79 94 79 93 / 20 50 30 70
SFB 79 95 78 93 / 20 60 30 70
ORL 79 95 78 93 / 20 70 30 70
FPR 74 92 74 92 / 10 60 20 60
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ041-044>046-141-
144-247-347-447-547-647-747.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SEDLOCK
AVIATION...HEIL
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