293
FXUS62 KMLB 270537
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
137 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2026
- INCREASING MOISTURE THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK WILL ALLOW RAIN
CHANCES TO RETURN TO NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.
- HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WILL CONTINUE, WITH PEAK HEAT
INDICES REACHING 102-107F EACH AFTERNOON, AND POTENTIALLY
NEARING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (108-110F) FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2026
THROUGH TONIGHT...LIMITED CLOUD COVERAGE THIS MORNING HAS ALLOWED
FOR SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA, WITH
TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AREAWIDE AND EXCEEDING
THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE. AS A RESULT, SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY
HAS STARTED A BIT EARLIER THAN CAM GUIDANCE INITIALLY SUGGESTED,
WITH INCREASING COVERAGE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
THE ADEQUATE DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT MODEST INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH MLCAPE EXCEEDING 1500 J/KG AND LIKELY
INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DCAPE HAS ALREADY EXCEEDED
800 J/KG PER THE 15Z XMR SOUNDING, WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING SOME
SPOTS COULD EXCEED 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. INTERACTIONS BETWEEN
OUTFLOW FROM THIS INITIAL CONVECTION AND THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVERS OF ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS, WITH STORM HAZARDS INCLUDING
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, WIND GUSTS OF 50-60 MPH, HEAVY
DOWNPOURS THANKS TO PWATS EXCEEDING 2" AREAWIDE, AND A LOW CHANCE
OF SMALL HAIL. A MARGINAL RISK (1/5) OF SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM TITUSVILLE TO ORLANDO AND AREAS NORTHWARD. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SLOW-MOVING ACTIVITY. IN AREAS THAT SEE SLOWER MOVING SHOWERS AND
STORMS THERE IS A GREATER RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING, WITH
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-5" POSSIBLE. A MAJORITY OF EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA REMAINS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK (1/4) OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL TODAY. ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND PUSH OFFSHORE
THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE PENINSULA
TONIGHT, WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
BROAD INFLUENCE OF RIDGING ALOFT THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK, WITH THE
MID- LEVEL HIGH CENTERED ACROSS TEXAS AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
AND ITS EASTERN RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TOWARDS FLORIDA. NORTHWARD,
A TROUGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST, PROMPTING AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO PUSH
FARTHER OFFSHORE, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. LOCALLY, THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
WILL REMAIN WITHIN A PLUME OF MOISTURE THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK,
WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 2.1". COUPLED WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS AND LIMITED INTRUSION INLAND OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE,
HIGHER SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED ACROSS
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA, WITH POPS RANGING BETWEEN
30-60%. MODEST INSTABILITY, STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, PWATS
2"+, AND DCAPE EXCEEDING 800 J/KG EACH AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT
STORM DEVELOPMENT, WITH PRIMARY HAZARDS INCLUDING FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES, WIND GUSTS OF 45-55 MPH, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
THAT COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING. WEST TO NORTHWEST
STEERING FLOW WILL PUSH ACTIVITY OFFSHORE EACH DAY, WITH A 20-40%
CHANCE OF ACTIVITY PERSISTING ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHILE CONDITIONS REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
ACROSS THE PENINSULA.
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK, WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S ON MONDAY AND THE LOW TO UPPER 90S ON
TUESDAY. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. PEAK HEAT INDICES OF 102-107F ARE
ANTICIPATED AREAWIDE, WITH A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF EXCEEDING
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AND PRODUCTS WILL BE
ISSUED AS NEEDED. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY TO AVOID DEVELOPING HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S, WITH SOME SPOTS POTENTIALLY NEARING 80 ON TUESDAY NIGHT
NEAR THE METRO AREAS.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN US
WILL STRENGTHEN, WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS FALLING ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA MID TO LATE WEEK. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL PASS
OVERHEAD, ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND PUSHING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE, THIS WILL HELP PUSH
A QUASI- STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US
TOWARDS FLORIDA, STALLING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN STARTING WEDNESDAY, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
REMAINING BREEZY WHICH WILL LIMIT THE CHANCES FOR THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE TO MOVE INLAND. WHILE THE SEA BREEZE WON'T NECESSARILY
BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER BEHIND SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT, ENERGY
FROM THE PASSING SHORTWAVES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA EACH DAY, PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 30-40% ON WEDNESDAY, INCREASING TO 50-70% AREAWIDE
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE
WITH STORMS. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE RISK FOR FLOODING,
PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY THE CONTINUED ACTIVE AND WET PATTERN ACROSS
THE PENINSULA. WPC HAS ALREADY INCLUDED NORTHERN PORTIONS OF EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA IN A MARGINAL RISK (1/4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, SO WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
FLOODING THREAT AS TIME GOES ON. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, THOUGH LINGERING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
DEVELOPMENT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS CANNOT BE RULED OUT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE BE ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY, WITH
GUIDANCE HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCEEDING HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA ACROSS THE NORTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BY THURSDAY AND
THROUGH LATE WEEK, THE INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE STALLED
BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE, WHICH WILL LIMIT
SOME OF THE DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BUT STILL
KEEP CONDITIONS HUMID AND MUGGY. WHILE AFTERNOON HIGHS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL LATE THIS
WEEK, HEAT INDICES EXCEEDING 100F ARE STILL ANTICIPATED ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
PRACTICING HEAT SAFETY THROUGH LATE WEEK IN ORDER TO AVOID
DEVELOPING ANY HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2026
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS
THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PERSISTING.
WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY, INCREASING TO
15 TO 20 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY DRIFTS SOUTHWARD AND LEADS TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. SEAS OF 2-4 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH THE CHANCE FOR
SOME 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS DUE TO THE INCREASING
WINDS. BY FRIDAY, WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH SEAS OF 1-3 FEET.
THE PREVAILING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THIS WEEK WILL FAVOR
OFFSHORE-MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THE PENINSULA AND ACROSS
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS EACH AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. STORM HAZARDS WILL INCLUDE LIGHTNING STRIKES, WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GULF STREAM WATERS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 137 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
PREVAILING WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS. A
DELAYED EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL STRUGGLE TO PUSH FAR INLAND
THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD SHIFT WINDS SOUTHEAST TO EAST ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AN EARLY BAND OF
SHOWERS PASSING THE GREATER ORLANDO TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING,
AND HAVE VCSH MENTIONED AT MCO/ISM/SFB/LEE AROUND 12Z. ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS LATER FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AND HAVE HANDLED WITH VCTS WORDING
FOR NOW. WILL REEVALUATE THE NEED FOR ANY PROB30S/TEMPOS WITH THE
12Z TAF PACKAGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 92 76 95 78 / 50 10 40 20
MCO 93 77 95 78 / 50 20 50 10
MLB 91 76 93 77 / 60 20 50 10
VRB 92 75 93 75 / 50 20 50 10
LEE 93 79 94 80 / 50 20 50 10
SFB 94 78 95 79 / 50 10 50 20
ORL 93 78 95 79 / 50 20 50 20
FPR 92 74 92 75 / 50 20 60 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR FLZ041-044>046-141-144-247-347-447.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TOLLEFSEN
AVIATION...LAW
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