994
FXUS62 KMLB 102255
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
655 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PEAK
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL EASILY REACH 102-107F. POTENTIAL TO REACH
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (108-110F) WILL EXIST FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THIS WEEK.
- NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEK. THE DRIER AIR ALOFT
WILL SUPPORT STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN STORMS EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
THRU TONIGHT...UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM XMR THIS MORNING SHOWED
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH PWAT DOWN TO 1.8"
WITH THE BULK OF THAT MOISTURE BELOW 900 MB. ATLC SEA BREEZE IS
PUSHING INLAND SPARKING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SOME OF THESE WILL
DEVELOP INTO LIGHTNING STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AS BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS INCREASE. THE DRIER AIR ALOFT IS PRODUCING HIGH DCAPE
VALUES OVER 1100 J/KG SO ANY DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE OF
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH BUT COVERAGE LOOKS LIMITED (~30%).
CONVECTION WILL WIND DOWN OVER THE FAR INTERIOR BY 10 PM.
TUE-SUN...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT MOVES IN AND HOLDS ACROSS THE
AREA. THE ASSOCD SUPPRESSION/SUBSIDENCE AS WELL AS ANOTHER PLUME
OF SAHARAN AIR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DRY MID LEVELS AND BELOW NORMAL
STORM CHANCES. WHILE SKIES MAY BECOME MORE HAZY THIS WEEK DUE TO
THE SAHARAN DUST, THE PARTICULATES ARE SUSPENDED MOSTLY ALOFT AND
DO NOT TYPICALLY CAUSE AIR QUALITY ISSUES AT THE SFC HERE IN
CENTRAL FL. THERE IS A GRADUAL RISE IN RAIN CHANCES THU-FRI AS
MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE POOLS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS. THEN DRIER AIR MOVES BACK IN THIS WEEKEND AND LIMITS
RAIN CHANCES, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. ANY STORMS THAT DO MANAGE TO FORM
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG, PRODUCING STRONG WIND
GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. WEAK STEERING
WINDS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS FROM SOME STORMS,
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1-2" EACH DAY.
THESE DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR RISING HEAT
IMPACTS THROUGH THE WEEK AS LITTLE RELIEF WILL BE FOUND FROM
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S
EACH DAY. PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL EASILY REACH 102-107F, AND
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE NEED FOR ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES AS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES RISE TO
108-110F. WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
WILL ALSO AMPLIFY THE OVERALL HEAT IMPACTS, WITH WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EACH DAY.
CONTINUING TO FOLLOW HEAT SAFETY PRACTICES WILL REMAIN IMPORTANT
AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS WEEK.
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS
THE LOCAL ATLC WATERS TONIGHT AND TUE AND THEN REACH SOUTH FL
WED. SE WINDS WILL BECOME S/SW TUE AND W/SW BY WED-THU. HOWEVER,
THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH FOR THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE TO STILL FORM EACH AFTERNOON WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE
(SE) NEAR THE COAST AT 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS TO 1-2 FEET ARE FORECAST
THIS WEEK. SHOWER AND LIGHTNING STORM CHANCES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
THIS WEEK WITH COVERAGE AT 30% OR LESS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 655 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE SW ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AFTER 14Z AND OUT OF THE ESE ALONG THE COAST AFTER 16Z.
AS THE ECSB DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND, VCSH WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH
CHANCES STARTING AT 16Z ALONG THE COAST AND 19Z ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. ANTICIPATE THE PATTERN BEING SIMILAR TO HOW CONDITIONS
PANNED OUT TODAY, SO TOO LOW CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE VCTS MENTION AT
THIS TIME. A RETURN OF LIGHTER WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED AFTER 20Z ALONG THE COAST AND AFTER 00Z TOMORROW
ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 76 92 76 93 / 10 30 10 20
MCO 76 94 77 94 / 10 30 20 10
MLB 77 91 76 92 / 0 20 0 30
VRB 75 91 75 92 / 0 10 0 30
LEE 77 93 77 93 / 10 20 10 10
SFB 77 94 77 94 / 10 30 20 10
ORL 77 93 77 94 / 10 30 20 10
FPR 77 91 75 92 / 0 10 0 40
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ058-164-264.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KELLY
AVIATION...TOLLEFSEN
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