874
FXUS62 KMLB 110532
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
132 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PEAK
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL EASILY REACH 102-107F. POTENTIAL TO REACH
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (108-110F) WILL EXIST FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THIS WEEK.
- NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEK. THE DRIER AIR ALOFT
WILL SUPPORT STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN STORMS EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
THRU TONIGHT...UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM XMR THIS MORNING SHOWED
NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH PWAT DOWN TO 1.8"
WITH THE BULK OF THAT MOISTURE BELOW 900 MB. ATLC SEA BREEZE IS
PUSHING INLAND SPARKING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SOME OF THESE WILL
DEVELOP INTO LIGHTNING STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AS BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS INCREASE. THE DRIER AIR ALOFT IS PRODUCING HIGH DCAPE
VALUES OVER 1100 J/KG SO ANY DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE OF
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH BUT COVERAGE LOOKS LIMITED (~30%).
CONVECTION WILL WIND DOWN OVER THE FAR INTERIOR BY 10 PM.
TUE-SUN...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT MOVES IN AND HOLDS ACROSS THE
AREA. THE ASSOCD SUPPRESSION/SUBSIDENCE AS WELL AS ANOTHER PLUME
OF SAHARAN AIR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DRY MID LEVELS AND BELOW NORMAL
STORM CHANCES. WHILE SKIES MAY BECOME MORE HAZY THIS WEEK DUE TO
THE SAHARAN DUST, THE PARTICULATES ARE SUSPENDED MOSTLY ALOFT AND
DO NOT TYPICALLY CAUSE AIR QUALITY ISSUES AT THE SFC HERE IN
CENTRAL FL. THERE IS A GRADUAL RISE IN RAIN CHANCES THU-FRI AS
MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE POOLS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS. THEN DRIER AIR MOVES BACK IN THIS WEEKEND AND LIMITS
RAIN CHANCES, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY. ANY STORMS THAT DO MANAGE TO FORM
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG, PRODUCING STRONG WIND
GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. WEAK STEERING
WINDS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS FROM SOME STORMS,
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1-2" EACH DAY.
THESE DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR RISING HEAT
IMPACTS THROUGH THE WEEK AS LITTLE RELIEF WILL BE FOUND FROM
AFTERNOON CONVECTION. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S
EACH DAY. PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL EASILY REACH 102-107F, AND
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE NEED FOR ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES AS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES RISE TO
108-110F. WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
WILL ALSO AMPLIFY THE OVERALL HEAT IMPACTS, WITH WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EACH DAY.
CONTINUING TO FOLLOW HEAT SAFETY PRACTICES WILL REMAIN IMPORTANT
AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2026
FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS WEEK.
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS
THE LOCAL ATLC WATERS TONIGHT AND TUE AND THEN REACH SOUTH FL
WED. SE WINDS WILL BECOME S/SW TUE AND W/SW BY WED-THU. HOWEVER,
THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH FOR THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE TO STILL FORM EACH AFTERNOON WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE
(SE) NEAR THE COAST AT 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS TO 1-2 FEET ARE FORECAST
THIS WEEK. SHOWER AND LIGHTNING STORM CHANCES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
THIS WEEK WITH COVERAGE AT 30% OR LESS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 5-10 KT AND
BECOME SW AFTER 14Z ACROSS THE INTERIOR SITES, AND ESE ALONG THE
COAST AFTER 16Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND AS IT PUSHES INLAND. THUS,
HAVE MAINTAINED VCSH STARTING AT 16Z ALONG THE COAST, AND STARTING
AT 19Z ACROSS THE INTERIOR. CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW AT THIS
TIME TO INCLUDE VCTS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS
RETURN ALONG COASTAL SITES AFTER 20Z AND, ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SITES AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 94 76 94 76 / 30 10 30 10
MCO 95 77 95 76 / 30 10 20 10
MLB 91 77 93 77 / 20 20 20 10
VRB 93 75 94 75 / 20 10 30 10
LEE 95 77 94 77 / 30 10 20 0
SFB 95 77 96 77 / 30 10 30 10
ORL 95 78 95 77 / 30 10 30 10
FPR 92 77 94 76 / 20 10 30 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-
264-347-447-547-647-747.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KELLY
AVIATION...WATSON
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