242
FXUS62 KMLB 110700
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
300 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026
- HEAT ADVISORY ISSUED FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM
11AM-8PM TODAY FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 108F-110F DEGREES;
REMEMBER TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY!
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH NEAR OR AT
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (108F+) EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
- NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEK. DRIER AIR ALOFT
MOSTLY DUE TO A SAHARAN DUST LAYER WILL SUPPORT STRONG GUSTY
WINDS IN LIGHTNING STORMS EACH DAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026
CURRENTLY-TONIGHT... KMLB RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY WEATHER ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. GOES-16 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LOCAL
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80F DEGREES. ANALYSIS CHARTS SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE (~1022MB) OVER THE EASTERN GULF. ADDITIONALLY, THERE'S A
500MB HIGH OVER EASTERN GULF AND STATE OF FLORIDA WITH 500MB HEIGHTS
AT 595DM (90TH PERCENTILE), AS WELL AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
DRIER AIR IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP RAIN
CHANCES BELOW NORMAL TODAY MOSTLY DUE TO A SAHARAN DUST LAYER.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS (20-30% CHANCE) AND LIGHTNING
STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
COLLISIONS OCCUR BETWEEN SEA BREEZES AND OUTFLOW FROM PREVIOUS
SHOWERS/LIGHTNING STORM. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH BY AROUND 8PM. HI-RES
GUIDANCE SHOWS MLCAPE UP TO 2,000-4,200 J/KG, 0-6KM SHEAR UP TO 10-
30KTS, PWATS UP TO 1.80-2.30", AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE, THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG
LIGHTNING STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF FREQUENT LIGHTNING, WIND GUSTS UP
TO 30-50MPH, AND HEAVY RAINFALL (UP TO 1-3"). AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S ARE FORECAST. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL
OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM 11AM TO 8PM FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO
108-110F DEGREES. REMEMBER TO TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS FROM THE HEAT,
DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS, WEAR LIGHT COLORED CLOTHING, AND SHIFT
OUTDOOR WORK AWAY FROM THE HOTTEST PARTS OF THE DAY BETWEEN THE
HOURS OF 11AM TO 4PM. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL LOWS IN LOW 70S TO NEAR
80F DEGREES ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY... EXPECT A SIMILAR FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH DRIER AIR IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WHICH WILL KEEP
RAIN CHANCES BELOW NORMAL. THE AFOREMENTIONED 500MB RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT WEST AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC DEEPENS ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE THE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER DEEP SOUTH, AS WELL AS THE STATE OF FLORIDA
LATE WEEK. 500MB HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE FROM 594DM
(90TH PERCENTILE) ON WEDNESDAY TO 597DM (MAXIMUM PERCENTILE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR) BY FRIDAY OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS FROM THE WEST AT 5-10MPH ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE WINDS TURN ONSHORE WITH THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING EACH DAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS (20-30% CHANCE ON
WEDNESDAY AND 20-40% CHANCE THURSDAY/FRIDAY) AND LIGHTNING STORMS
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
COLLISIONS OCCUR BETWEEN SEA BREEZES AND OUTFLOW FROM PREVIOUS
SHOWERS/LIGHTNING STORMS. GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGH INSTABILITY,
WEAK TO MODERATE BULK SHEAR, PWATS UP TO 1.80- 2.3", AS WELL AS
CONDITIONALLY TO ABSOLUTELY UNSTABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THUS,
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING, WIND GUSTS UP TO 30-50MPH, AND HEAVY
RAINFALL (UP TO 1-3"). AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ARE
FORECAST EACH DAY WITH NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA MAXIMUM HEAT
INDEX VALUES UP TO 105F-110F DEGREES FORECAST. LOWS IN THE LOW TO
UPPER 70S ARE FORECAST.
SATURDAY-MONDAY... THE HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A LONGWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 500MB HEIGHTS WILL
REACH 597DM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US BEFORE WEAKENING (594DM) AND
GRADUALLY SHIFTING SLIGHTLY WEST-SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN GULF
AND DEEP SOUTH. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AT 5-10MPH
WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-4.
MOSTLY DRY TO BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST OVER THE
WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO UPPER 70S. AT LEAST A MODERATE TO MAJOR
HEATRISK IS FORECAST EACH DAY WITH A 20-40% CHANCE OF AN EXTREME
HEATRISK FOR LAKE COUNTY. A MAJOR AND EXTREME HEATRISK AFFECT
ANYONE WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING AND HYDRATION.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026
CURRENTLY-TONIGHT... FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS ARE FORECAST TO THE NORTH OF
MELBOURNE INTO THE AFTERNOON. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5-10KTS ARE
EXPECTED TO TURN EAST- SOUTHEAST INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE. SEAS TO 1-2FT ARE EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY... FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING
STORMS ARE FORECAST OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS ON WEDNESDAY.
MOSTLY DRY TO BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST THURSDAY TO
SATURDAY. AN ISOLATED GENERALLY OFFSHORE MOVING STRONG STORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON WEDNESDAY. WEST- SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 5-15KTS
ARE FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE ON WEDNESDAY. WEST WINDS AT 6-12KTS ARE
FORECAST TO TURN SOUTH- SOUTHEAST EACH AFTERNOON FROM THURSDAY TO
SATURDAY. SEAS TO 1-2FT ARE FORECAST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 5-10 KT AND
BECOME SW AFTER 14Z ACROSS THE INTERIOR SITES, AND ESE ALONG THE
COAST AFTER 16Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND AS IT PUSHES INLAND. THUS,
HAVE MAINTAINED VCSH STARTING AT 16Z ALONG THE COAST, AND STARTING
AT 19Z ACROSS THE INTERIOR. CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW AT THIS
TIME TO INCLUDE VCTS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS
RETURN ALONG COASTAL SITES AFTER 20Z AND, ACROSS THE INTERIOR
SITES AFTER 00Z TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 94 76 94 76 / 30 10 30 10
MCO 95 77 95 76 / 30 10 20 10
MLB 91 77 93 77 / 20 20 20 10
VRB 93 75 94 75 / 20 10 30 10
LEE 95 77 94 77 / 30 10 20 0
SFB 95 77 96 77 / 30 10 30 10
ORL 95 78 95 77 / 30 10 30 10
FPR 92 77 94 76 / 20 10 30 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-
264-347-447-547-647-747.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FEHLING
AVIATION...WATSON
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