258
FXUS62 KMLB 111824
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
224 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026
- HEAT ADVISORY ISSUED FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH 8PM
TODAY FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 108F-110F DEGREES; REMEMBER
TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY!
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH NEAR HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA (108F+) EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
- NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEK. DRIER AIR ALOFT DUE
TO A SAHARAN DUST LAYER WILL SUPPORT STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN ANY
LIGHTNING STORMS EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026
REST OF TODAY-TONIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ON
KMLB RADAR AS OF AROUND 2 PM. OTHERWISE, THE CUMULUS FIELD SEEN ON
GOES-EAST VIS IMAGERY LOOKS LIMITED IN VERTICAL GROWTH. THIS MAKES
SENSE, GIVEN SUBSIDENCE ALOFT DUE TO A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT (POPS TO
20-40%) WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. CAMS
SUGGEST THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION AS THE FOCAL POINT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH AROUND 7 PM, BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS
DEVELOP FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COLLISION, WITH THE
15Z XMR SOUNDING FINDING 900 J/KG OF DCAPE. WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 50
MPH, LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS. HOT CONDITIONS, WITH A HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH 8 PM WILL YIELD TO OVERNIGHT LOWS THAT
REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...SIMILAR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK,
AS HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE COLUMN MEANDERS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN GULF. WHILE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
CONTINUES TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO CONVECTION, HUMID CONDITIONS
LINGER, WITH PWATS 1.8-2+" PROVIDING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. THUS, POPS REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL (ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY), WITH CHANCES 20-50%. INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY WEDNESDAY, THOUGH CONVECTION OVERALL LOOKS TO BE WIDELY
SCATTERED AT BEST TO END THE WORK WEEK. GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 50
MPH WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT IN ANY STRONGER STORMS DUE TO
DRIER AIR ALOFT. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS OVERNIGHT REMAIN LESS THAN
10 MPH THROUGH THE DAY, BUT BACK S/SE NEAR THE COAST AS THE SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS.
HUMID CONDITIONS, LIMITED SHOWERS AND STORMS, AND A WEAK EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE WILL MAINTAIN HOT CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID-90S WILL HELP TO
SUPPORT HEAT INDICES 102-107+ DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE NEED FOR ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES FOR AT
LEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. REGARDLESS, BE SURE TO
PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
SATURDAY-TUESDAY...THE ATLANTIC RIDGE STRENGTHENS INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING WESTWARD TOWARDS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALOFT, RIDGING CONSOLIDATES
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST. DESPITE RIDGING WEAKENING
SLIGHTLY OVER THE LOCAL AREA, AN ENHANCED POCKET OF SAHARAN AIR
LAYER (SAL) LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE PENINSULA. THEREFORE, POPS LOOK
TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG WIND GUSTS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT. ALSO, HOT
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE, WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 90S
AND HUMID AUGUST DEWPOINTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026
OVERALL FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND, AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE LOCAL PATTERN. LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW BACKS S/SE NEAR THE COAST EACH DAY WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE, BUT REMAINS AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS.
BELOW NORMAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS FORECAST, THOUGH
ANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 45 KTS, IN
ADDITION TO LIGHTNING STRIKES. SEAS 1-3 FT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ECFL TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS
DEVELOPED AND PUSHED INLAND OF KSUA-KMLB, WILL BE SLOWER/LATER AT
NORTHERN COASTAL TERMINALS, AND ARRIVING AT KMCO AND AREA TERMINALS
AFTER 20Z. LIGHT/VRB WINDS SHIFT ONSHORE 5-10 KTS BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY. ISO-SCT SHRA AND ISO TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED INVOF AND NORTH
OF KMCO IN HIGHER MOISTURE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY SHIFT
SOUTHEAST UNTIL REACHING THE SEA BREEZE THEN SLIDE SOUTH ALONG THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT
INDIVIDUAL STORM MOTION COULD BECOME ERRATIC. TSRA/SHRA DIMINISH
AFTER 00Z. WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VRB AGAIN OVERNIGHT. WINDS BECOME
OFFSHORE 5-10 KTS WEDNESDAY IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON,
DELAYING/SLOWING DEVELOPMENT OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. HIGHEST
AFTERNOON TSRA CHANCES ALONG THE COASTAL CORRIDOR, LOWER INLAND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 76 93 76 93 / 10 30 30 40
MCO 77 95 77 95 / 20 10 10 40
MLB 78 93 77 92 / 10 20 20 30
VRB 75 93 75 92 / 10 30 20 30
LEE 77 94 77 94 / 10 10 10 40
SFB 77 95 77 94 / 10 20 20 50
ORL 78 94 78 94 / 10 20 10 40
FPR 77 93 76 92 / 10 30 20 30
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ041-044>046-053-
058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WISHARD
AVIATION...HALEY
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