672
FXUS62 KMLB 120546
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
146 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026
- HEAT ADVISORY ISSUED FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH 8PM
TODAY FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 108F-110F DEGREES; REMEMBER
TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY!
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH NEAR HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA (108F+) EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
- NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEK. DRIER AIR ALOFT DUE
TO A SAHARAN DUST LAYER WILL SUPPORT STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN ANY
LIGHTNING STORMS EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026
REST OF TODAY-TONIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ON
KMLB RADAR AS OF AROUND 2 PM. OTHERWISE, THE CUMULUS FIELD SEEN ON
GOES-EAST VIS IMAGERY LOOKS LIMITED IN VERTICAL GROWTH. THIS MAKES
SENSE, GIVEN SUBSIDENCE ALOFT DUE TO A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT (POPS TO
20-40%) WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. CAMS
SUGGEST THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION AS THE FOCAL POINT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH AROUND 7 PM, BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS
DEVELOP FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COLLISION, WITH THE
15Z XMR SOUNDING FINDING 900 J/KG OF DCAPE. WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 50
MPH, LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS. HOT CONDITIONS, WITH A HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH 8 PM WILL YIELD TO OVERNIGHT LOWS THAT
REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...SIMILAR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK,
AS HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE COLUMN MEANDERS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN GULF. WHILE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
CONTINUES TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR TO CONVECTION, HUMID CONDITIONS
LINGER, WITH PWATS 1.8-2+" PROVIDING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. THUS, POPS REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL (ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY), WITH CHANCES 20-50%. INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY WEDNESDAY, THOUGH CONVECTION OVERALL LOOKS TO BE WIDELY
SCATTERED AT BEST TO END THE WORK WEEK. GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 50
MPH WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT IN ANY STRONGER STORMS DUE TO
DRIER AIR ALOFT. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS OVERNIGHT REMAIN LESS THAN
10 MPH THROUGH THE DAY, BUT BACK S/SE NEAR THE COAST AS THE SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS.
HUMID CONDITIONS, LIMITED SHOWERS AND STORMS, AND A WEAK EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE WILL MAINTAIN HOT CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
HIGHS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID-90S WILL HELP TO
SUPPORT HEAT INDICES 102-107+ DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE NEED FOR ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES FOR AT
LEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. REGARDLESS, BE SURE TO
PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
SATURDAY-TUESDAY...THE ATLANTIC RIDGE STRENGTHENS INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING WESTWARD TOWARDS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALOFT, RIDGING CONSOLIDATES
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST. DESPITE RIDGING WEAKENING
SLIGHTLY OVER THE LOCAL AREA, AN ENHANCED POCKET OF SAHARAN AIR
LAYER (SAL) LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE PENINSULA. THEREFORE, POPS LOOK
TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG WIND GUSTS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT. ALSO, HOT
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE, WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 90S
AND HUMID AUGUST DEWPOINTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026
OVERALL FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND, AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE LOCAL PATTERN. LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW BACKS S/SE NEAR THE COAST EACH DAY WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE, BUT REMAINS AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS.
BELOW NORMAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS FORECAST, THOUGH
ANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 45 KTS, IN
ADDITION TO LIGHTNING STRIKES. SEAS 1-3 FT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF CONFECTION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 5-10 KT BY MID-MORNING. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL
FORM IN THE AFTERNOON, BACKING THE WINDS ONSHORE (E-SE) ALONG THE
COAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO
FORM ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE, WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
STORMS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HAVE MAINTAINED VCSH ACROSS THE INTERIOR SITES STARTING AT 17Z
AND ALONG THE COAST STARTING 16/17Z FROM VRB SOUTHWARD, AND
STARTING AT 18/19Z FROM MLB NORTHWARD. HAVE VCTS STARTING ALONG
THE COAST 19/20Z. HAVE ADDED TEMPOS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN TSRA
STARTING AT 20/21Z ALONG THE COAST. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY
TEMPOS/PROB30S FOR THE INTERIOR SITES. ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL
DIMINISH AFTER 03Z THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT BY 01Z
ACROSS THE INTERIOR, AND BY 03Z ALONG THE COAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 94 77 94 77 / 30 20 40 20
MCO 96 77 97 77 / 20 20 40 20
MLB 94 77 93 77 / 20 20 30 20
VRB 94 75 94 76 / 30 20 30 10
LEE 96 77 96 78 / 20 20 40 20
SFB 96 77 96 78 / 20 20 40 20
ORL 96 77 96 78 / 20 20 40 20
FPR 94 75 94 76 / 40 20 30 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-
264-347-447-547-647.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WISHARD
AVIATION...WATSON
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