361
FXUS62 KMLB 130526
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
126 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2026
- HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY
THROUGH 8PM FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 108F-112F DEGREES;
REMEMBER TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY!
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
WEEK. MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH NEAR HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA (108F+) EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND; ADDITIONAL HEAT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA.
- BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRIER
AIR ALOFT DUE TO THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL SUPPORT STRONG,
GUSTY WINDS IN ANY LIGHTNING STORMS EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2026
REST OF TODAY-FRIDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A SOMEWHAT DELAYED
START TO THE SEA BREEZE. THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION TODAY, THOUGH CAMS SUGGEST OUTFLOW FROM ONGOING STORMS
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA SPARKING ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY GENERALLY NORTH
OF ORLANDO. POPS REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY, THOUGH POPS OVERALL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR MID-AUGUST (UP TO 30-40%). SLOWER STORM
MOTIONS COULD SUPPORT OUTFLOW COLLISIONS INTO THIS EVENING, BUT
CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH BY AROUND 10 PM OR SO. THE 15Z
XMR SOUNDING FOUND DCAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG, SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
A FEW STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH. SLOW
MOVING STORMS AND AMPLE MOISTURE COULD ALSO LEAD TO A QUICK 1-3"
IN A FEW SPOTS.
EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK, AS
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE LOCAL PATTERN. LIGHT W/SW FLOW BACKS
S/SE AT THE COAST AND INCREASES TO AROUND 10 MPH WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOONS. PWATS 2-2.3" AND
THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT POPS
ARE STILL BELOW NORMAL (30-40%). STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS TO
50 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN THREATS, AS DRIER
AIR ALOFT DUE TO THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER (SAL) LINGERS. HOT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND MUGGY DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE HEAT INDICES NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (108F).
ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. REGARDLESS, BE
SURE TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY!
SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS BUILDS BACK TOWARDS
THE PENINSULA ON SATURDAY. THEN, SURFACE RIDGING ONCE AGAIN MOVES
WESTWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ALOFT, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHEAST US AND FLATTENS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALL OF THIS RESULTS
IN LITTLE PERCEPTIBLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN FOR EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA. POPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL, GENERALLY 30-40% OR
LESS, THOUGH MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY MOST DAYS. SUNDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE DRIEST DAY, WITH POPS BELOW 20% AREA-WIDE. STRONG
STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON, WITH WAVES OF SAL
SUPPORTING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH IN STORMS THAT CAN SURVIVE THE
OVERALL SUBSIDENCE. ANY AREAS THAT SEE RAINFALL COULD PICK UP A
QUICK 1-3" DUE TO LIGHT STORM MOTIONS AND PWATS 2+" AT TIMES. THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL HAVE TO WORK TO OVERCOME THE LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW. HIGHS IN THE MID-90S WILL CREEP TOWARDS THE UPPER
90S AT TIMES, WITH HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUING. ADDITIONAL HEAT
ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2026
FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE LOCAL PATTERN. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW
BACKS S/SE NEAR THE COAST EACH DAY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA
BREEZE, BUT REMAINS AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS. BELOW NORMAL COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS FORECAST, THOUGH ANY STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 45 KTS, IN ADDITION TO
LIGHTNING STRIKES, AS THEY PUSH OFFSHORE. SEAS 1-3 FT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SW WINDS PERSIST THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE NW AFTER 14Z, BECOMING E ALONG
THE COAST AFTER 18Z AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND
MOVES INLAND. INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR VCTS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE,
WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOCUSED AT MCO, ISM, AND SFB AFTER 18Z. TOO
EARLY TO INCLUDE PROB30/TEMPO GROUPS, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
MODEL TRENDS. ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED TO DIMINISH AFTER 23Z ALONG
THE COAST AND 01Z ACROSS THE INTERIOR, WITH A RETURN OF LIGHT SW
WINDS OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 96 77 96 77 / 50 10 30 0
MCO 97 77 97 77 / 40 20 50 10
MLB 95 78 94 78 / 40 10 30 0
VRB 94 76 94 77 / 20 10 20 0
LEE 96 78 97 78 / 40 20 50 20
SFB 96 77 96 77 / 50 10 40 10
ORL 96 78 96 77 / 40 10 40 10
FPR 94 76 94 77 / 20 10 20 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-
264-347-447-547-647-747.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WISHARD
AVIATION...TOLLEFSEN
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