242
FXUS62 KMLB 131103
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
703 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2026
- HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM
10AM TO 8PM FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 108F-112F DEGREES;
REMEMBER TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY!
- A MAJOR HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK WITH HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS. MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH NEAR
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (108F+) EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND;
ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
- BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRIER
AIR ALOFT DUE TO THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL SUPPORT STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS IN ANY LIGHTNING STORMS EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2026
CURRENTLY-TONIGHT... KMLB RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY WEATHER OVER
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. GOES-19 AND LOCAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN
THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. ANALYSIS CHARTS SHOW A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF
AND EASTERN CONUS. HIGH PRESSURE (1018MB) AT THE SURFACE OVER THE
EASTERN GULF. ADDITIONALLY, THE 15Z AND 00Z XMR SKEW-T SOUNDINGS
FROM YESTERDAY STILL SHOWED QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS DUE TO A SAHARAN DUST LAYER.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED TODAY IN TERMS OF THE AIRMASS WITH
DRIER AIR STILL EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS DUE TO SAHARAN
DUST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GULF AND SOUTHERN US.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS (30-50% CHANCE) AND LIGHTNING STORMS
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY AS
COLLISIONS OCCUR BETWEEN LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW, THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE, AND OUTFLOW FROM PREVIOUS STORMS. RAIN CHANCES
DIMINISH BY AROUND 8PM. LIGHT WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BACK
ONSHORE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE PUSHES INLAND, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-4. HI-RES
GUIDANCE SHOWS MLCAPE UP TO 1,000-3,600 J/KG, 0-6KM SHEAR UP TO
10-25KTS, PWATS UP TO 1.80-2.20", AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES UP TO
6.0-6.7 C/KM TODAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, WIND GUSTS UP TO 30-50MPH, AND HEAVY RAINFALL (UP TO
1-3"). GUIDANCE SHOWS 500MB HEIGHTS AT THE 90TH PERCENTILE (594DM)
AND POTENTIALLY THE MAXIMUM PERCENTILE (597DM) BY THIS EVENING
OVER THE SOUTHERN US AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA. THUS, A HOT AND
MUGGY DAY IS EXPECTED AGAIN WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S. ADDITIONALLY, A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM 10AM TO 8PM FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES
UP TO 108-112F DEGREES. REMEMBER TO TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS FROM THE
HEAT, DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS, WEAR LIGHT COLORED CLOTHING, AND
SHIFT OUTDOOR WORK AWAY FROM THE HOTTEST PARTS OF THE DAY BETWEEN
THE HOURS OF 10AM TO 4PM. ABOVE NORMAL (2-4+ DEGREES) LOWS IN MID
70S TO NEAR 80F DEGREES ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY... A PERSISTENT FORECAST IS EXPECTED WITH DRIER AIR
IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS EXPECTED TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF AND
EASTERN CONUS THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING WEST-SOUTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING. GUIDANCE SHOWS 500MB HEIGHTS REACHING THE EXPECT MAXIMUM
PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AT 598DM. EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS (20-40% CHANCE) AND LIGHTNING STORMS TO DEVELOP
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COLLISIONS OCCUR BETWEEN SEA
BREEZES AND OUTFLOW FROM PREVIOUS SHOWERS/LIGHTNING STORMS BEFORE
RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH BY AROUND 8PM ON FRIDAY. BELOW NORMAL RAIN
CHANCES (20-50%) ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON SATURDAY WITH THE
GREATEST CHANCES ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST TO OKEECHOBEE COUNTY
(50%). LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AT 5-10MPH NEAR THE COAST ON SUNDAY. MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY WITH A LOW CHANCE (20-30%) FOR
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS FORECAST
ALONG AND NORTH OF LAKE KISSIMMEE TO COCOA. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S ARE FORECAST. ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES ARE
LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO
108-112F DEGREES FORECAST. A WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK
IS FORECAST WITH A WIDESPREAD EXTREME HEATRISK MAINLY NORTH OF
THE TREASURE COAST. A MAJOR AND EXTREME HEATRISK AFFECT ANYONE
WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING AND HYDRATION.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY... MUCH OF THE SAME IS FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN PLACE OVER
THE GULF AND SOUTHERN US. ENSEMBLES, LREF-CLUSTERS, AND
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHERN
US AS A MID/UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US. AT THE
SURFACE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SAG OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS AND SOUTHERN US TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BELOW NORMAL RAIN
CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE, AS WELL AS HOT AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS. A WIDESPREAD MAJOR HEATRISK IS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA EACH DAY. ADDITIONALLY, THE PROBABILITIES FOR AN
EXTREME HEATRISK ARE UP TO 30-70% OVER AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF THE
TREASURE COAST EACH DAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2026
CURRENTLY-TONIGHT... FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
(20-30%) FOR ISOLATED GENERALLY OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND
LIGHTNING STORMS. A STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE
34KTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WEST WINDS AT 5-10MPH ARE EXPECTED TO
TURN SOUTHERLY INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AS WELL AS ONSHORE
ALONG THE COAST WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE.
FRIDAY-MONDAY... FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS
AND LIGHTNING STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. BELOW NORMAL
RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
EACH DAY. HOWEVER, ISOLATED OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING
STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT AROUND 5-10MPH ARE EXPECTED TO BACK SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING FRIDAY TO SUNDAY, AS WELL AS
ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. WEST WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO TURN EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS UP TO 1-2FT
ARE FORECAST WITH UP TO 3 FT FORECAST OVER THE FAR OFFSHORE
VOLUSIA TO BREVARD COUNTY WATERS ON MONDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2026
LIGHT SW WINDS EARLY VEER TO OUT OF THE NW AFTER 14Z ACROSS ALL
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TERMINALS. BY 18Z, THE ECSB IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP, CAUSING WINDS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS TO BECOME E AROUND
10 KNOTS AND INCREASING THE CHANCE OF VCTS. CHANCES INCREASE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR FOR VCTS AFTER 18Z AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES
INLAND, WITH PEAK CONVECTION FORECAST BETWEEN 20-24Z NEAR MCO,
ISM, AND SFB. PROB30S HAVE BEEN ADDED AT ALL INTERIOR TERMINALS
EXCEPT LEE FOR VIS AND CIG REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA AS WELL AS GUSTY
WINDS. SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH ALONG THE
COAST AFTER 23Z AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR AFTER 01Z, WITH LIGHT SW
WINDS RETURNING OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 96 77 96 77 / 40 10 40 0
MCO 97 77 97 77 / 40 20 40 20
MLB 95 78 94 78 / 40 10 30 0
VRB 94 76 94 77 / 30 10 20 0
LEE 96 78 97 78 / 30 20 40 20
SFB 96 77 96 77 / 40 10 40 10
ORL 96 78 96 77 / 40 10 40 20
FPR 94 76 94 77 / 30 10 20 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-
264-347-447-547-647-747.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FEHLING
AVIATION...TOLLEFSEN
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