562
FXUS62 KMLB 140520
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
120 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2026
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
WEEK. MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH NEAR HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA (108F+) EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND; ADDITIONAL HEAT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA.
- BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRIER
AIR ALOFT DUE TO THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL SUPPORT STRONG,
GUSTY WINDS IN ANY LIGHTNING STORMS EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2026
REST OF TODAY-SATURDAY...HOT AND HUMID ONCE AGAIN ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH LIMITED SHOWER COVERAGE AS OF
2 PM AND A DELAYED, WEAK EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AS
IT MOVES INLAND THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH POPS 20-40%. HOWEVER,
THIS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE GIVEN THE WEAK CU FIELD SEEN ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. REGARDLESS, MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY,
WITH LITTLE RELIEF FROM SCORCHING HEAT INDICES 108-112 DEGREES. A
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM. ANY STORMS THAT
MANAGE TO DEVELOP TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 50
MPH, WITH DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS. CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO
TAPER OFF INTO THIS EVENING OVER THE INTERIOR, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
RINSE AND REPEAT TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND, AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. BELOW AVERAGE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS CONTINUES, WITH POPS GENERALLY 20-40%. A WAVE OF SAHARAN
DUST IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY,
INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS, WITH WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 50 MPH. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW BECOMES S/SE ALONG THE COAST AS
THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND. OVERALL, WINDS REMAIN
AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS. LOW PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND A WEAK SEA
BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH WELL INTO THE 90S.
MEANWHILE, HUMID CONDITIONS PRODUCE HEAT INDICES 108-112 DEGREES.
ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
DON'T FORGET TO INTEGRATE HEAT SAFETY INTO YOUR WEEKEND PLANS!
SUNDAY-THURSDAY...BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL CHANCES, WELL BELOW NORMAL
AT TIMES, PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK TOWARDS THE PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALOFT, A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. OVERALL, LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PATTERN FOR
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. FORECAST POPS PEAK AT 20-30% OR LESS, WITH
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREA-WIDE FOR AT LEAST MONDAY. MOST AREAS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. REGARDLESS, STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON, WITH WAVES OF SAL SUPPORTING WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH IN STORMS THAT CAN SURVIVE THE OVERALL SUBSIDENCE. LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO OPPOSE THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE,
WHICH REMAINS WEAK AT AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS. HIGHS IN THE MID-90S
WILL CREEP TOWARDS THE UPPER 90S AT TIMES, WITH HUMID CONDITIONS
CONTINUING. ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED
THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2026
FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE LOCAL PATTERN. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW
BACKS S/SE NEAR THE COAST EACH DAY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA
BREEZE, BUT REMAINS AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS OVERALL. BELOW NORMAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS FORECAST, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH, ANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG
WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 45 KTS, IN ADDITION TO LIGHTNING STRIKES. SEAS
1-3 FT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AT
THE TERMINALS, WITH WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY REMAINING AROUND 5
KNOTS. ECSB DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST AFTER 17Z, WITH WINDS
BECOMING E AROUND 10 KNOTS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. ADDED A
MENTION OF VCSH ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASES AS THE ECSB MOVES INLAND, WITH VCTS
AT THE INTERIOR TERMINALS AFTER 19Z. NO MENTION OF PROB30/TEMPOS
YET, BUT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ALONG WITH
DRY CONDITIONS RETURN ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 00Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 94 77 95 77 / 30 20 20 10
MCO 97 77 98 77 / 50 20 30 20
MLB 92 78 93 77 / 30 20 20 10
VRB 93 76 92 77 / 30 10 20 0
LEE 96 78 97 78 / 50 20 30 20
SFB 96 77 97 78 / 40 20 20 10
ORL 96 78 97 78 / 50 20 30 20
FPR 93 77 92 75 / 30 10 30 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-
264-347-447-547-647-747.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WISHARD
AVIATION...TOLLEFSEN
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