153
FXUS62 KMLB 150518
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
118 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
- HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH 8PM THIS EVENING FOR HEAT INDEX
VALUES EXCEEDING 108F DEGREES; REMEMBER TO PRACTICE HEAT
SAFETY!
- IMPACTFUL HEAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL REACH NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (108F+) EACH DAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK; ADDITIONAL HEAT
ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA EACH DAY
- BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. DRIER AIR ALOFT DUE TO THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER WILL
SUPPORT STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS IN ANY LIGHTNING STORMS EACH DAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
CURRENT-TONIGHT... SATELLITE AND KMLB RADAR IMAGERY SHOW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY
SHOWN THE GREATEST COVERAGE BUILDING ACROSS THE INTERIOR FROM
OSCEOLA NORTHWARD (~50-60%) LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. DESPITE HIGH PWATS ANALYZED AROUND 2.0", THE 15Z XMR
SOUNDING AND UPDATED MCO ACARS PROFILES SHOW A LAYER OF DRY AIR
ABOVE 850 MB. WHILE SHEAR REMAINS WEAK, ISOLATED STRONG UPDRAFTS
WHICH INTERACT WITH THE LAYER OF DRY AIR ALOFT WILL BE CAPABLE OF
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 35-50 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE,
AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB THROUGH THE 90S. A HEAT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8PM FOR PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES
EXCEEDING 108 DEGREES. SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY DIMINISHES OR
MOVES WEST OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA BY 9PM WITH DRY CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES FALL TO RANGE THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
WEEKEND... A 500MB RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S.
THIS WEEKEND WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS EXTENDED ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA. A THIN RIBBON OF HIGHER MOISTURE LIFTS FROM THE
SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY PROVIDING THE BEST CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKEECHOBEE AND THE INTERIOR
TREASURE COAST (30-50%), AND WIDELY ISOLATED COVERAGE EXISTS
FURTHER NORTH (20% OR LESS). THE SURGE OF LOCALLY HIGHER MOISTURE
WILL BE SHORT LIVED, FOLLOWED BY A PLUME OF SAHARAN DRY AIR. THIS
SHOULD KEEP BELOW SEASONAL RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY WITH A 20%
CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. DESPITE LOW
RAIN CHANCES, EFFICIENT SURFACE HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW
QUICK UPDRAFTS, AND TALL STORMS WHICH INTERACT WITH DRY AIR ALOFT
WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS OF 35-50 MPH.
WITH LITTLE RELIEF FROM SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MOST OF THE AREA,
EXPECT A PERIOD OF IMPACTFUL HEAT TO CONTINUE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S EACH DAY, AND A FEW DAILY RECORDS
MAY BE WITHIN REACH ACROSS THE NORTH INTERIOR. PEAK HEAT INDEX
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB NEAR OR ABOVE 108F, AND HEAT ADVISORIES
LOOK LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. BE SURE TO PRACTICE HEAT
SAFETY, AND NEVER LEAVE CHILDREN ALONE IN THE CAR. LOOK BEFORE
YOU LOCK!
MONDAY-THURSDAY... THE STRUCTURE OF THE 500MB HIGH BROADENS OVER THE
SOUTHERN U.S. INTO NEXT WEEK BUT SHOULD STILL HOLD INFLUENCE OVER
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN SEABOARD ON MONDAY,
AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
THE FRONT REMAINS NORTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA, ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD
STILL INCREASE MOISTURE LOCALLY. LOW RAIN CHANCES (20-30%) REMAIN
FOCUSED NEAR AND NORTH OF ORLANDO AND CAPE CANAVERAL ON MONDAY
BEFORE A MORE SEASONAL PATTERN OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
RETURNS AREAWIDE INTO MID WEEK. A PERIOD OF IMPACTFUL HEAT
CONTINUES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
FORECAST EACH DAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROMOTE FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY EACH MORNING SHIFTS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS
EACH AFTERNOON, AND WINDS MOSTLY REMAIN 10 KTS OR LESS. SEAS HOLD 1-
2 FT, BUILDING TO 3 FT FAR OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY MORNING. DRIER AIR WILL THEN LEAD TO LOWER THAN NORMAL
RAIN CHANCES LATE SATURDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 113 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2026
CONTINUED MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT/VRB WINDS INTO MORNING HOURS. LOWER THAN NORMAL TSRA/SHRA
CHANCES SAT, THOUGH THE LIGHT SRLY LLVL FLOW COULD HELP DEVELOP
ISOLD SHRA INVOF KSUA-KFPR AS EARLY AS 16Z. THE ECSB IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP AFTER 17Z, REACHING KMCO/INLAND TERMINALS AFTER 22Z, AND
SHIFT WINDS ESE-SE 7-12 KTS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. ISOLD TSRA/SHRA ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES INLAND. A SEA BREEZE
COLLISION IS FORECAST NEAR TO WEST OF MCO SAT EVENING, WITH QUIET
CONDITIONS RESUMING OVERNIGHT.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT LOCAL CLIMATE SITES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND:
SITE AUG 14 AUG 15 AUG 16
DAYTONA 96 (2010) 97 (2023) 97 (2023)
LEESBURG 98 (1991) 96 (1984) 96 (2011)
SANFORD 98 (2013) 97 (1999) 97 (2023)
ORLANDO 98 (2007) 98 (1938) 101 (1918)
MELBOURNE 97 (2010) 98 (1963) 96 (2022)
VERO BEACH 97 (1993) 95 (1993) 96 (2022)
FORT PIERCE 96 (1929) 97 (1929) 97 (1948)
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 94 77 94 77 / 20 10 20 10
MCO 97 78 97 78 / 20 10 20 10
MLB 92 78 94 78 / 20 0 10 0
VRB 92 76 93 76 / 20 10 10 0
LEE 96 78 96 78 / 20 10 20 10
SFB 96 78 96 78 / 20 10 20 10
ORL 96 79 96 79 / 20 10 20 10
FPR 92 76 94 76 / 30 10 10 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-
264-347-447-547-647-747.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LAW
AVIATION...SEDLOCK
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