765
FXUS62 KMLB 160514
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
114 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 741 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2026
- HEAT WILL REMAIN A CONCERN ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR RECORDS IN SOME SPOTS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND PEAK HEAT INDICES NEAR OR EXCEED HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
- BELOW NORMAL RAIN AND STORM CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO DRIER AIR ALOFT FROM SAHARAN DUST.
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND STRONG, GUSTY WINDS.
- INCREASING MOISTURE TUESDAY ONWARD WILL RESULT IN A RETURN OF
NEAR-NORMAL RAIN AND STORM CHANCES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2026
CURRENT-TONIGHT... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WHICH DEVELOPED
ACROSS OKEECHOBEE AND THE TREASURE COAST ARE SPREADING INTO
PORTIONS OF BREVARD AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FURTHER NORTH, LIGHT SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE TOWARDS
THE ORLANDO METRO INTO THE EVENING. THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR (DCAPE
~800-1,000 J/KG) AND WINDS ALOFT (40KTS @ 32,000 FT) WILL ALLOW
FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS 40-55
MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. QUICK RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-3"
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORMS. AHEAD OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS, CONDITIONS REMAIN HOT AND HUMID AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB
THROUGH THE 90S, AND A HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH 8 PM. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
SUNDAY... A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S.
WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A
LAYER OF DRY AIR MODELED ABOVE 700MB WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES WELL
BELOW NORMAL WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES (~20%) MOSTLY LIMITED TO AREAS
FROM BREVARD AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES NORTHWARD. WITH LITTLE RELIEF FROM
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS, EXPECT HOT CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE. HIGHS ARE FORECAST MOSTLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHILE THE SEA BREEZE MAY BE ABLE TO
HOLD SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN THE LOW 90S.
DESPITE SOME MIXING DOWN OF DRY AIR ALOFT, PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES
SHOULD TOP OUT NEAR TO ABOVE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (108F) ONCE
AGAIN. CONTINUE TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY AND STAY HYDRATED!
MONDAY-FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BROADENS ALOFT INTO MID WEEK AS A
TROUGH DIGS ACROSS CANADA AND INTO THE NORTHERN U.S. HIGHER MOISTURE
GRADUALLY SLIDES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY
SINKS INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES (20-
50%) BUILD SOUTHWARD THROUGH PORTIONS OF BREVARD AND OSCEOLA ON
MONDAY, WITH A SEASONAL PATTERN OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS (~40-
60%) FORECAST TO RETURN AREAWIDE BY MID TO LATE WEEK. OUTSIDE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD PERSIST. WHILE
STILL ABNORMALLY HOT, THE GREATEST HEAT IMPACTS MAY BEGIN TO SLOWLY
SUBSIDE LATE WEEK AS TROUGHING BEGINS TO DIG THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN U.S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2026
HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL WITH FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS
FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEK. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS SHIFT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS,
MOSTLY REMAINING 12 KTS OR LESS. SEAS OF 1-2 FT PERSIST, BUILDING UP
TO 3 FT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DRIER AIR SHOULD LIMIT SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES SUNDAY WITH COVERAGE
OF OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS THEN GRADUALLY REBUILDING EACH
DAY INTO MID NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 113 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2026
CONTINUED MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT/VRB WINDS INTO MORNING HOURS. LOWER THAN NORMAL TSRA/SHRA
CHANCES CONTINUE. THE ECSB IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 16-17Z,
REACHING KMCO/INLAND TERMINALS LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE, AND SHIFT WINDS
ESE-SE 7-10 KTS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. ISOLD TSRA/SHRA ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ON THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES INLAND. "VICINITY" TS WORDING IN
PLACE NORTH OF THE TREASURE COAST, BUT MOST TAF SITES LIKELY TO NOT
REALIZE EVEN THIS. A SEA BREEZE COLLISION IS FORECAST NEAR TO WEST
OF MCO AGAIN SUN EVENING, WITH QUIET CONDITIONS RESUMING OVERNIGHT.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT LOCAL CLIMATE SITES THIS WEEKEND:
SITE AUG 15 AUG 16
DAYTONA 97 (2023) 97 (2023)
LEESBURG 96 (1984) 96 (2011)
SANFORD 97 (1999) 97 (2023)
ORLANDO 98 (1938) 101 (1918)
MELBOURNE 98 (1963) 96 (2022)
VERO BEACH 95 (1993) 96 (2022)
FORT PIERCE 97 (1929) 97 (1948)
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 94 77 95 78 / 10 10 40 10
MCO 97 78 97 79 / 20 20 20 10
MLB 94 78 96 78 / 10 10 20 10
VRB 93 76 95 76 / 10 10 10 10
LEE 96 78 95 79 / 10 10 40 10
SFB 96 78 96 79 / 20 10 40 10
ORL 97 79 96 80 / 20 20 30 10
FPR 94 77 95 77 / 10 0 10 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-
264-347-447-547-647-747.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LAW
AVIATION...SEDLOCK
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