807
FXUS62 KMLB 160700
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
300 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, CLIMATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2026
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
COUNTIES BETWEEN 10 AM AND 8 PM FOR PEAK HEAT INDICES OF 108F TO
112F. PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY!
- HEAT CONCERNS PERSIST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS THANKS TO ABOVE-NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS AND PEAK
HEAT INDICES NEARING OR REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
- BELOW-NORMAL RAIN AND STORM CHANCES ARE FORECAST THROUGH TODAY
DUE TO DRIER AIR ALOFT, WITH INCREASING MOISTURE MONDAY ONWARD
LEADING TO A RETURN OF NEAR-NORMAL RAIN AND STORM CHANCES ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT...MID-LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TODAY, WITH THE ATLANTIC HIGH AND ITS RIDGE AXIS
REMAINING DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUED LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING, BECOMING
MORE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON AND PUSHES INLAND. WHILE DRIER AIR ALOFT
FROM SAHARAN DUST DRIFTING ACROSS THE AREA WILL HELP LIMIT RAIN
AND STORM CHANCES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY, ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR THE GREATER ORLANDO AREA CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING PAIRED WITH THE DRY AIR ALOFT WILL
LEAD TO A CONDITIONALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT AND ANY STORMS THAT DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, WIND GUSTS UP TO
55 MPH, AND BRIEF, HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL LEAD
TO SLOW-MOVING AND EVEN ERRATIC STORM MOTIONS, SO SOME QUICK
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3" CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN SOME SPOTS
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS REMAINS LOW. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY
THIS EVENING, WITH DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AREAWIDE.
HEAT REMAINS A CONCERN ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY, WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
AREAWIDE. SOME LOCATIONS MAY EVEN NEAR THEIR RECORD HIGHS. THESE
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH HUMID CONDITIONS TO PRODUCE
PEAK HEAT INDICES OF 108F TO 112F, WITH A HEAT ADVISORY ONCE AGAIN
IN EFFECT FOR ALL EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COUNTIES BETWEEN 10 AM AND
8 PM. PROLONGED HEAT INCREASES THE RISK OF DEVELOPING HEAT-
RELATED ILLNESS FOR EVERYONE, SO BE SURE TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY.
IF SPENDING EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME OUTDOORS, STAY WELL HYDRATED,
WEAR LIGHTWEIGHT, LIGHTLY COLORED CLOTHING, AND TAKE FREQUENT
BREAKS IN THE SHADE OR AN AIR CONDITIONED BUILDING. NEVER LEAVE
CHILDREN OR PETS ALONE IN CARS AND BE SURE TO LOOK BEFORE YOU
LOCK. LIMITED RELIEF IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
WITH LOWS FALLING ONLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
MONDAY-SATURDAY...RIDGING ALOFT WEAKENS THROUGH THIS WEEK AS A
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN US GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS AND DIGS
SOUTHWARD. AT THE SURFACE, THE ATLANTIC HIGH SHIFTS SOUTHWARD AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST,
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN US. THE FRONT
IS ANTICIPATED TO STALL AND EVENTUALLY WASH OUT NEAR TO JUST NORTH
OF FLORIDA, WITH A PLUME OF MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. PWATS
INCREASE TO 2" AND GREATER ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA ON MONDAY, EXPANDING AREAWIDE FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.
THIS INCREASING MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A RETURN TO A DIURNAL
PATTERN WITH NEAR-NORMAL RAIN CHANCES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA,
WITH POPS GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN 20-50% ON MONDAY AND 40-70%
FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY
WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS THE
PRIMARY STORM HAZARDS. ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY PUSH OFFSHORE
THANKS TO WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT, WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING MOSTLY
DRY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE PENINSULA.
THE HEAT IS ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. TUESDAY
ONWARD, AFTERNOON HIGHS BEGIN A SLOW TREND DOWNWARD, BUT VALUES
ARE STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. PEAK HEAT INDICES EXCEEDING 100F WILL PERSIST EACH DAY
THOUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEK, WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING NEARING
AND/OR EXCEEDING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY BE MONITORED AND THE PROPER HEAT PRODUCTS
WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO CONTINUE PRACTICING HEAT SAFETY IF SPENDING EXTENDED PERIODS OF
TIME OUTDOORS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2026
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH EARLY WEEK, WITH GENERALLY
FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS ARE ANTICIPATED LOCALLY,
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY EACH AFTERNOON AS THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS. SEAS OF 1 TO 2 FEET PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD,
BUILDING TO 3 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS AT TIMES.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS FROM MONDAY ONWARD, WITH ACTIVITY GENERALLY
MOVING OFFSHORE FROM THE PENINSULA THANKS TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS OF 30 KNOTS AND GREATER, HEAVY
DOWNPOURS, AND LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
VICINITY OF ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 113 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2026
CONTINUED MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT/VRB WINDS INTO MORNING HOURS. LOWER THAN NORMAL TSRA/SHRA
CHANCES CONTINUE. THE ECSB IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 16-17Z,
REACHING KMCO/INLAND TERMINALS LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE, AND SHIFT WINDS
ESE-SE 7-10 KTS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. ISOLD TSRA/SHRA ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ON THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES INLAND. "VICINITY" TS WORDING IN
PLACE NORTH OF THE TREASURE COAST, BUT MOST TAF SITES LIKELY TO NOT
REALIZE EVEN THIS. A SEA BREEZE COLLISION IS FORECAST NEAR TO WEST
OF MCO AGAIN SUN EVENING, WITH QUIET CONDITIONS RESUMING OVERNIGHT.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT LOCAL CLIMATE SITES TODAY:
SITE AUG 16
DAYTONA 97 (2023)
LEESBURG 96 (2011)
SANFORD 97 (2023)
ORLANDO 101 (1918)
MELBOURNE 96 (2022)
VERO BEACH 96 (2022)
FORT PIERCE 97 (1948)
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 94 77 95 78 / 10 10 40 10
MCO 97 78 97 79 / 20 20 20 10
MLB 94 78 96 78 / 10 10 20 10
VRB 93 76 95 76 / 10 10 10 10
LEE 96 78 95 79 / 10 10 40 10
SFB 96 78 96 79 / 20 10 40 10
ORL 97 79 96 80 / 20 20 30 10
FPR 94 77 95 77 / 10 0 10 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-
264-347-447-547-647-747.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TOLLEFSEN
AVIATION...SEDLOCK
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