485
FXUS62 KMLB 170518
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
118 AM EDT MON AUG 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2026
- HEAT CONCERNS PERSIST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS THANKS TO ABOVE-NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS AND PEAK
HEAT INDICES NEARING OR REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
- INCREASING MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE A MORE SEASONABLE PATTERN OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AREAWIDE FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2026
CURRENT-TONIGHT... GOES-19 PWAT IMAGERY INDICATES A SHARP MOISTURE
GRADIENT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON WITH VALUES RANGING
2.0-2.1" FROM CAPE CANAVERAL AND ORLANDO NORTHWARD AND AS LOW AS
1.5" FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH OKEECHOBEE AND THE TREASURE COAST.
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ACROSS
NORTH-CENTAL FLORIDA AS THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES MOVE
INLAND. EXPECT MORE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
NEAR AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM MELBOURNE TO KISSIMMEE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, DRIVEN BY INCREASED SURFACE HEATING AND A FEW
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. A FEW STRONG STORMS WHICH MAY DEVELOP WILL BE
CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS 35-50 MPH, FREQUENT LIGHTING, AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. OTHERWISE, HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH HIGHS ON
TRACK TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR, AND A HEAT
ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH 8PM THIS EVENING FOR PEAK HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 108-112F. ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
COLLISION MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING, BUT DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD MOSTLY RANGE THE MID
TO UPPER 70S.
MONDAY... HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS RIDGING HOLDS MOSTLY STAGNANT
ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE, A RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA AS A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS WILL FAVOR
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW, TURNING SOUTHEAST AS A DELAYED SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES WIDELY
RANGING 106-110F WILL LIKELY PROMPT THE NEED FOR ANOTHER HEAT
ADVISORY. MOISTURE ADVECTING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE ORLANDO METRO
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS
(20-45%), PROVIDING SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT LATE IN THE DAY. A FEW
STRONG STORMS WHICH DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED WIND GUSTS
35-50 MPH, FREQUENT LIGHTING, AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. DRIER AIR TO
THE SOUTH SHOULD LIMIT RAIN CHANCES TO LESS THAN 20% ACROSS MUCH OF
OKEECHOBEE AND THE TREASURE COAST.
TUESDAY-SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID LEVELS GRADUALLY
BROADENS THROUGH LATE WEEK AS TROUGHING DIGS ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND INTO THE EASTERN U.S. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS MOSTLY
SOUTH OF THE AREA, PERHAPS INCHING NORTHWARD TOWARDS LAKE
OKEECHOBEE LATE IN THE PERIOD. OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN HOT
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AS HIGHS CONTINUE IN THE
MID 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH LOCALIZED AREAS REACHING THE
UPPER 90S. TEMPERATURES THEN SHOW A DECREASING TREND, FINALLY
RETURNING CLOSER TO NORMAL LATE WEEK. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT
SOUTHWARD INTO TUESDAY, PROMPTING A MORE SEASONAL PATTERN OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS (40-60%) AREAWIDE EACH DAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2026
A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS ON MONDAY.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF PREVAILING LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW,
SHIFTING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LATE EACH DAY AS THE SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS. SEAS OF 1-2 FT BUILD UP TO 3 FT OFFSHORE TUESDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
NORTH OF THE CAPE ON MONDAY, WHILE REMAINING MOSTLY DRY FURTHER
SOUTH. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD ON TUESDAY PROMPTING
HIGHER COVERAGE (40-60%) OF OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS AREAWIDE
THROUGH LATE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT MON AUG 17 2026
CONTINUED MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. DRY CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WRLY WINDS INTO MORNING HOURS. LOW-LEVEL FLOW A BIT
STRONGER WRLY THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY AND EXPECT THE ECSB COULD BE
DELAYED (ESP TIX NORTH) ON TOP OF NOT MAKING IT TOWARD THE
INTERIOR TERMINALS TODAY. WINDS BECOMING E/SE 8-10 MPH WHERE SEA
BREEZE PASSES, ELSE 6-10 MPH FURTHER WEST (INLAND). HIGHER
MOISTURE VALUES NORTHWARD, THUS ONLY HAVE VCTS MENTION NEAR MLB
NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE AS SOME CAMS SHOWING A FEW
LIGHTNING STORMS THIS FAR SOUTH. POTENTIAL TEMPO GROUPS LATER AS
CONFIDENCE ALLOWS WITH MVFR IN STORMS. INTERIOR TERMINALS WILL
RELY ON SURFACE HEATING/WCSB FOR AFTN CONVECTIVE CHANCES. BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN PENINSULA CLOSER
TOWARD THE COAST. STILL MAINLY LOWER THAN NORMAL TSRA/SHRA
CHANCES OVERALL. GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS RESUMING MID/LATE
EVENING THRU THE OVERNIGHT.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 244 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT LOCAL CLIMATE SITES:
SITE AUG 16 AUG 17
DAYTONA 97 (2023) 96 (1990)
LEESBURG 96 (2011) 98 (2005)
SANFORD 97 (2023) 97 (2005)
ORLANDO 101 (1918) 99 (1929)
MELBOURNE 96 (2022) 97 (2022)
VERO BEACH 96 (2022) 98 (2022)
FORT PIERCE 97 (1948) 97 (2022)
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 95 78 94 78 / 50 20 60 20
MCO 97 78 96 79 / 20 20 60 10
MLB 96 79 95 78 / 20 10 50 20
VRB 95 76 95 76 / 10 10 40 20
LEE 96 79 94 79 / 30 20 60 10
SFB 96 79 95 79 / 30 20 60 10
ORL 97 80 95 80 / 30 20 60 10
FPR 95 77 95 76 / 10 10 40 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-
264-347-447-547-647-747.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LAW
AVIATION...SEDLOCK
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