654
FXUS62 KMLB 311851
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
251 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2026
- A WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
THIS WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW AND HIGH MOISTURE SUPPORTS ABOVE
NORMAL RAIN AND STORM CHANCES, INCLUDING DURING THE OVERNIGHTS
AND EARLY MORNINGS.
- PRIMARY STORM HAZARDS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH,
OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO FLOODING.
- MUGGY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAT INDICES IN THE
TRIPLE DIGITS THROUGH THE WEEK. BE SURE TO TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS
IN THE SHADE OR AIR CONDITIONING IF SPENDING PROLONGED TIME
OUTDOORS TO AVOID THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2026
THRU TUE...A STRONG MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE TN VALLEY TUE.
WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGHS ON ITS SOUTHERN FLANK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF AND FL WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER MORE UNSETTLED. THE LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA AND CONTINUE AN ONSHORE
FLOW WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE (PWATS 2.0-2.2"). THIS WILL MAINTAIN
THE GENERAL PATTERN OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
LIGHTNING STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS IN THE
OVERNIGHTS AND EARLY MORNINGS, SOME OF WHICH PUSH ACROSS THE
COAST. THEN A HIGHER COVERAGE OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOP JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
QUICK/DIFFUSE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IN THE LATE MORNINGS TO EARLY
AFTERNOONS, PUSHING INLAND. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP OUR CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON STORMS ABOVE NORMAL AT 50-70% ESP OVER THE INTERIOR.
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MUCH LOWER ALONG
THE COAST DUE TO SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE. HOWEVER, BROAD
INSTABILITY DUE TO THE HIGH MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES ALOFT COULD
KICK OFF ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AT ANY POINT.
WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL PRODUCE SLOW MOVING STORMS AND ALLOW FOR
SOME ERRATIC CELL MOTIONS ESPECIALLY ALONG BOUNDARY COLLISIONS.
SUCH STORMS COULD DELIVER A QUICK 2-3" OF RAINFALL LEADING TO
TEMPORARY FLOODING OF URBAN, LOW-LYING, OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
THERE IS A VERY LOW (LESS THAN 5%) CHANCE FOR ONE OR TWO SPOTS TO
RECEIVE 4+" OF RAINFALL, LEADING TO GREATER FLOODING IMPACTS.
STRONGER STORMS AND HEAVY SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS
40-50 MPH FROM WATER LOADING. OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLY HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S. BUT GIVEN THE HIGH HUMIDITY, PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES WILL REMAIN 100-106.
WED-THU...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE REACHES THE CAROLINAS AS
THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO INCH SOUTHWARD. THIS IS
FORECAST TO PRODUCE A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA WITH EVEN
HIGHER PWATS OF 2.4-2.5". RAIN CHANCES HAVE INCREASED TO 80% OVER
THE INTERIOR AND HAVE COLLABORATED WITH WPC ABOUT ADDING MRGL
EXCESSIVE RAIN OUTLOOK FOR WED (LEVEL 1 OF 4). THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER HAS REDUCED ITS PROBABILITIES TO NEAR 0% FOR
REDEVELOPMENT OF THE REMNANTS OF "DOLLY". NONETHELESS, ITS
MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO REACH US THU, KEEPING RAIN CHANCES HIGH
AND A MRGL ERO ALREADY IN PLACE.
INSTABILITY MAY BE MORE MUTED IN THE VERY SATURATED ATMOSPHERE,
WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
(ESP WED), BUT GUSTY WINDS FROM WATER LOADING WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR IN THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S.
FRI-SUN...SOME DRIER AIR MAY TEMPORARILY ROTATE INTO PORTIONS OF
THE AREA AND HELP TO LOWER RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY. BUT AT THE
SURFACE THE BERMUDA HIGH RETREATS FARTHER OUT TO TO SEA, CAUSING
THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TO BECOME VERY WEAK. SO WILL CONTINUE
TO SHOW AT OR ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES (50-70%). MAX TEMPERATURES
WOULD TICK UPWARD INTO THE MID 90S INTERIOR IF CLOUDS/PRECIP BACK
OFF A BIT. REGARDLESS, PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES REMAIN IN THE
TRIPLE DIGITS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2026
GENERALLY FAVORABLE WINDS AND SEAS FOR BOATING, BUT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS WILL REMAIN A HAZARD, INCLUDING DURING
THE OVERNIGHTS. THE RIDGE AXIS OF THE BERMUDA WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN NORTH OF FLORIDA AND THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS, CONTINUING
ONSHORE (E-SE) FLOW 5-10 KTS, CLOSER TO 10 KTS IN THE AFTERNOONS
FROM SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA MAY WEAKEN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH AT
TIMES, ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE WEEK, RESULTING IN LIGHTER AND MORE
VARIABLE WINDS. SEAS 2-3 FT, UP TO 4 FT WELL OFFSHORE IN THE GULF
STREAM MIDWEEK. ONSHORE FLOW AND HIGH MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A DAILY PATTERN OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
LIGHTNING STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS IN THE
OVERNIGHTS TO EARLY MORNINGS, THEN PUSHING ONSHORE OR DEVELOPING
JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST AND PUSHING INLAND WITH THE SEA BREEZE
IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2026
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS, MAINLY WEST OF I-95 WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, PRODUCING TEMPO IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE, PRODUCING VARIABLE AND
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30-40 KNOTS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2-4 INCHES. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD LARGELY
DIMINISH AND SHIFT WEST OF THE AREA BY 00Z, BUT MAY CONTINUE TO
SEE SOME ISOLATED ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST
OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER EARLY START TO CONVECTION TOMORROW WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN DEVELOPING ALONG
THE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
NE WINDS UP TO 7-11 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT, AND THEN PICK UP AGAIN OUT OF THE E/NE AROUND
6-10 KNOTS TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 76 88 76 88 / 20 50 30 80
MCO 75 91 75 92 / 20 70 30 80
MLB 77 89 77 90 / 30 60 20 70
VRB 75 89 75 89 / 40 60 40 70
LEE 75 89 75 89 / 10 70 20 80
SFB 75 90 75 91 / 20 70 20 80
ORL 76 90 76 91 / 10 70 30 80
FPR 75 89 75 89 / 30 70 40 80
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KELLY
AVIATION...WEITLICH
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