720
FXUS62 KMLB 012334
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
734 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2026
- A WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS ONSHORE FLOW AND HIGH
MOISTURE SUPPORTS ABOVE NORMAL RAIN AND STORM CHANCES, INCLUDING
DURING THE OVERNIGHTS AND EARLY MORNINGS.
- PRIMARY STORM HAZARDS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH,
OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO FLOODING.
- MUGGY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PEAK HEAT INDICES IN
THE TRIPLE DIGITS THROUGH THE WEEK. BE SURE TO TAKE FREQUENT
BREAKS IN THE SHADE OR AIR CONDITIONING IF SPENDING PROLONGED
TIME OUTDOORS TO AVOID THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2026
THRU TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE ADJACENT ATLC WATERS
IS PRODUCING A NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND FLOW AND STEERING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. SAW AN EARLIER
START TO THE CONVECTION TODAY WHICH COULD SPELL AN EARLY END THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER, REHEATING AND LURKING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL
KEEP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS REDEVELOPING. WIND GUSTS SO FAR
HAVE BEEN TAME IN THE STORMS TODAY WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN
THE LIMITED DCAPE BUT GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN A
STRONGER STORMS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN ACCUMULATING A QUICK 1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY UP TO 4
INCHES POSSIBLE.
AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT,
CONVECTION SHOULD REDEVELOP/FOCUS OVER THE ATLC WITH POSSIBLE
IMPACT TO SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS WITH AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPE
APPEARING MOST LIKELY. HOWEVER, NONE OF THE CAM GUIDANCE IS
EXPLICITLY SHOWING CONVECTION PUSHING ONSHORE OVERNIGHT.
WED-THU...THE TROUGH AXIS WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM EAST TO WEST
WHICH WILL VEER THE WIND FLOW OUT OF THE EAST WED AND SOUTHEAST
THU AS THE BERMUDA HIGH TAKES HOLD. PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE (PWATS
2.2"-2.4") WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA CONTINUING THE PATTERN OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS IN THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING, THEN SHIFTING INLAND IN THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES (60-80%) ARE FORECAST AND THE SATURATED
ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOCALLY HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 2-3" LEADING TO MINOR FLOODING, AND VERY LOW (UP TO 5%) CHANCES
FOR +4" OF RAINFALL PRODUCING MORE IMPACTFUL FLOODING. ALL OF
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA REMAINS OUTLINED IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1
OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BOTH DAYS. CONDITIONS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS BUT WET DOWNBURSTS MAY PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH IN THE STRONGER STORMS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
SEASONABLE IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S WITH PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES 100-107.
FRI-MON...BERMUDA HIGH RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH OR
CENTRAL FL RESULTING IN LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COAST. NO SIGNIFICANT DRYING IS
FORECAST AS HIGH MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA KEEPING RAIN
CHANCES ABOVE NORMAL. THE HIGHEST CHANCES GENERALLY INLAND SEA
BREEZE COLLISIONS OCCUR. LOWER CHANCES LINGER OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST INTO THE OVERNIGHTS. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CREEP UP A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 90S BUT FLIRTING WITH THE M90S INLAND,
BRINGING HEAT INDICES CLOSER TO 107. HIGHS THEN SETTLE BACK TO THE
UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2026
GENERALLY FAVORABLE WINDS AND SEAS FOR BOATING THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK, BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS WILL
REMAIN A HAZARD, INCLUDING DURING THE OVERNIGHTS. FLOW REMAINS
ONSHORE, BUT WIND FLOW WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY WED AND SOUTHEAST
THU 5-10 KNOTS, A LITTLE STRONGER BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE. AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SLIPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA, WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY FRI-SAT THEN OFFSHORE (SW) SUN. A SEA BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST AT 10-14 KNOTS. SEAS 2-3
FT, UP TO 4 FT WELL OFFSHORE IN THE GULF STREAM TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, THEN SETTLING TO 1-2 FT THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 734 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS STILL LINGER, BUT SHOULD MOSTLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THE EVENING. HOWEVER, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS PUSHING ONSHORE
OR DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPE. AN EARLY START TO SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT
ONCE AGAIN FORECAST INTO TOMORROW. HAVE VCTS STARTING FOR COASTAL
SITES AROUND 16Z AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR FROM 17-18Z. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN EXPECTED, PRODUCING TEMPO
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z IF NOT PUSHING A LITTLE
FURTHER INTO THE EVENING. WINDS WEAKEN, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT, INCREASING OUT OF THE E/NE AROUND 7-10 KNOTS
INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 76 88 76 89 / 20 40 30 60
MCO 75 91 76 93 / 20 70 20 80
MLB 76 90 77 90 / 20 50 40 50
VRB 75 89 75 89 / 20 60 40 70
LEE 76 90 76 91 / 20 70 30 80
SFB 76 90 76 92 / 20 70 20 80
ORL 76 90 76 92 / 20 70 20 80
FPR 74 89 75 89 / 20 60 50 70
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KELLY
AVIATION...WEITLICH
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