447
FXUS62 KMLB 022356
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
756 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2026
- THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT THE VOLUSIA
AND NORTHERN BREVARD BEACHES TODAY. A MODERATE RISK CONTINUES AT
THE TREASURE COAST AND SOUTHERN BREVARD BEACHES. RESIDENTS AND
VISITORS SHOULD CHECK IN WITH LIFEGUARDS BEFORE ENTERING THE
SURF.
- A WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN STORM HAZARD THROUGH LATE WEEK WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT
COULD LEAD TO MOSTLY MINOR FLOODING ISSUES.
- MUGGY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, THEN
TEMPERATURES INCREASE A COUPLE DEGREES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES REMAIN IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2026
CURRENTLY-TONIGHT...INVERTED TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WEST
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS, MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL
AGAIN SHIFT WEST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. STRONGER STORM POTENTIAL
REMAINS LOW, AS THERE REMAINS LIMITED DRIER AIR ALOFT DUE TO THE
VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE AND ALSO WARM TEMPS EXIST ALOFT (-5C AT
500MB). THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL, WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS OF 2-4" POSSIBLE FROM ANY SLOW
MOVING OR PERSISTENT STORMS. THIS MAY LEAD TO MOSTLY MINOR FLOODING
ISSUES OF ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THERE
WILL LIKELY REMAIN A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STORM OR
TWO PAST SUNSET. AS THE INVERTED TROUGH SHIFTS WEST, LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL REMAIN ONSHORE OUT OF THE E/SE, WHICH COMBINED WITH DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS THAT CAN PUSH ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...RIDGE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC
REMAINS NEAR TO NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK. SURFACE WINDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ONSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD, OUT OF THE E/SE
THURSDAY AND SE ON FRIDAY. DEEP MOISTURE IS REINFORCED ACROSS THE
AREA, WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PW VALUES OF 2.2-2.4", AND A MID-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
RAIN CHANCES ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY. THE TREND IN EARLY START TO
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE, WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
BEGINNING TO FORM FROM MID TO LATE MORNING, WITH COVERAGE OF THIS
ACTIVITY BECOMING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS INTO THE AFTERNOON. DCAPE
VALUES REMAIN LOW DUE TO THE SATURATED AIRMASS AND TEMPS ALOFT
REMAIN WARM (-4 TO -5C AT 500MB), SO STRONG STORM POTENTIAL WILL
CONTINUE TO BE LOW. WILL SEE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES FROM
STORMS, AND POTENTIALLY GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30-40 MPH. MAIN THREAT
FROM STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2-4" AND
MINOR FLOODING FROM SLOW MOVING STORMS. THERE IS A VERY LOW (UP
TO 5%) CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SPOTS TO RECEIVE AROUND 5" OF RAINFALL
LEADING TO GREATER FLOODING IMPACTS, AND THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IN A MARGINAL
(LEVEL 1 OF 4) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EACH DAY.
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND INCREASED AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 100-
107F WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS WILL STILL LEAD TO
A MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR HEATRISK, SO BE SURE TO TAKE FREQUENT
BREAKS IN THE SHADE OR AIR CONDITIONING IF SPENDING PROLONGED TIME
OUTDOORS TO AVOID THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS.
SATURDAY-TUESDAY...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN
STAGNATES FOR A FEW DAYS AS THE TROUGHS/LOWS OVER THE WEST AND EAST
COASTS BECOME SEMI-STATIONARY, KEEPING DEEP RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL
US. THE PROMINENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST/CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL QUICKLY PUSH THE RIDGE AXIS OF THE
BERMUDA WELL SOUTH OF FLORIDA, AND THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT
BECOMES ALMOST NON-EXISTENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR
OFFSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP SATURDAY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT SUNDAY
ONWARD, BUT IT'S VERY POSSIBLE SATURDAY MAY END UP BEING
LIGHT/VARIABLE WAS WELL. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW ARRIVES IN THE DEEP SOUTH THIS WEEKEND, BUT HOW FAR IT GETS AND
HOW THE BOUNDARY EVOLVES MONDAY ONWARD IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. MODELS
DO AGREE THE HIGH MOISTURE ISN'T GOING ANYWHERE UNLESS THE FRONT
REACHES CENTRAL FLORIDA, AND BROAD ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
HOTTER SIDE INLAND SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THEN ARE FORECAST TO RETURN
BACK TO NORMAL FOR THE WORK WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2026
TONIGHT-MONDAY...BOATING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVERALL FAVORABLE,
BUT SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS, AND WILL REMAIN A HAZARD TO
BOATERS. INVERTED TROUGH WILL SHIFT WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT, WITH RIDGE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC
REMAINING NORTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH LATE WEEK, AND THEN GRADUALLY
PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE S/SE THROUGH SATURDAY, BEFORE
BECOMING OFFSHORE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER, THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE WILL STILL FORM INTO THE AFTERNOON ON BOTH OF THESE DAYS,
WITH WINDS TURNING ONSHORE BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY INTO THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 15
KNOTS, WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET THROUGH THURSDAY, FALLING TO 1-2 FEET INTO
THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2026
MAINTAINED VCSH OVERNIGHT FOR DAB/TIX FOR ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NE TO E OVERNIGHT. ON THU, WINDS WILL BE
MORE E/SE AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION WILL SHIFT
MORE INTO EAST CENTRAL FL IN THE LATE AFTERNOON SO HAVE ADDED
TEMPO TS TO MCO/SFB. HAVE INSERTED VCTS FOR COASTAL TERMINALS AFT
18Z WHICH WILL LIKELY NEED AN AFTN TEMPO AS WELL IN SUBSEQUENT
TAF ISSUANCES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 76 89 76 90 / 50 50 20 70
MCO 76 92 76 93 / 30 60 20 70
MLB 77 90 77 91 / 40 50 30 60
VRB 75 89 75 89 / 40 50 40 70
LEE 76 91 76 92 / 30 70 30 70
SFB 76 92 76 92 / 30 60 20 70
ORL 77 91 77 92 / 30 60 20 70
FPR 75 89 75 89 / 30 50 40 70
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WEITLICH
AVIATION...KELLY
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