844
FXUS62 KMLB 041055
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
655 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 234 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2026
- LOCALLY HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO FLOODING ISSUES
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM LIGHTNING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. OTHER STORM THREATS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS 35 TO
45 MPH AND OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
- A WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN
STORM HAZARD WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO MOSTLY MINOR FLOODING.
- MUGGY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S WILL CONTINUE, WITH PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES
IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS, BUT BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2026
CURRENT-SATURDAY...VERY MUGGY CONDITIONS EXIST WITH TEMPS WELL INTO
THE 70S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY WILL
SLOWLY SLIP SOUTH TOWARD CENTRAL FL INTO SAT. LIGHT MORNING S/SW
WINDS WILL TRANSITION ONSHORE INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH ECSB FORMATION
AND SLOW PUSH INLAND. SHOULD EXPECT A LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING SEA
BREEZE COLLISION ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATER TODAY, BUT THE COLLISION
WILL BE CLOSER TOWARDS THE EAST COAST ON SAT. STORM STEERING IS
LIGHT SWRLY TODAY AND MORE WRLY ON SAT. WEAK TROUGHING IN THE MID-
LEVELS WILL EXIST ALONG THE FL EAST COAST WITH SOME MID-LEVEL ENERGY
AVAILABLE FOR AIDING CONVECTION, THOUGH TEMPS AT 500 MB REMAIN
FAIRLY WARM AT -5.0C TO -5.5C. PWATS REMAIN IN EXCESS OF 2" AND
DIURNAL POPS 50-70% (HIGHEST INTERIOR) TODAY AND SAT. PRIMARY
STORM IMPACTS REMAIN FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS
LOCALLY 35-45 MPH, AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS CAPABLE OF 2-4" IN A
RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD PROMOTING MINOR/NUISANCE FLOODING IN SLOW-
MOVING STORMS. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER MAINTAINS A MARGINAL
(LEVEL 1 OF 4) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY.
MAX TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO NEAR 90F TO L90S. HUMID
OVERNIGHT WITH MINS IN THE 70S. PEAK HEAT INDICES WILL REACH 100-
107F AHEAD OF DAILY STORMS.
SUN-THU...TROUGHINESS IN THE MID-LEVELS ENCOMPASSES THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLC THRU EARLY WEEK BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING
SEAWARD INTO MID-WEEK. MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
MOUNTAIN WEST/GREAT PLAINS AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH TO INCLUDE THE FL
PENINSULA BY MID-WEEK. TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAIN FAIRLY WARM. AT THE
SURFACE, A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. A WEAKENING
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE DEEP SOUTH LATE SUN/EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL ACT TO DRAW DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE AREA INTO AT LEAST MON, BUT
THERE WILL BE SOME DRIER AIR INTRUSION AHEAD OF MID-WEEK. CONTINUE
HIGHER POPS WITH 70% AREAWIDE ON SUN, 80% AREAWIDE MON, 60-70%
TUE, WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE OF A GRADUAL DRYING TREND INTO
MID/LATE WEEK. STORM MOTION STILL LIGHT, BUT MORE OFFSHORE-MOVING
INTO TUE. GENERALLY NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS FOR HIGHS (U80S-L90S) WITH
LOWS IN THE 70S CONTINUING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 234 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2026
THRU TUE...FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE WITH DAILY SEA
BREEZE FORMATION AS WINDS TRANSITION TO ESE/SE 10-12 KTS ALONG THE
COAST. DIURNAL OFFSHORE-MOVING SHOWERS/STORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE WITH PRIMARY IMPACTS OF FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL
BE FAIRLY HIGH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER INVOF
STORMS. SEAS 2-3 FT INTO THIS EVENING, THEN 1-2 FT THRU MON,
BUILDING TO 2-4 FT AGAIN BY TUE. BOATING CONDITIONS MOSTLY
FAVORABLE OUTSIDE OF STORMS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2026
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL PICK UP TO AROUND
10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. VCTS CHANCES INCREASE ALONG THE COAST
AFTER 17Z WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE,
EXPANDING INLAND TO THE INTERIOR TERMINALS AFTER 18Z AS THE SEA
BREEZE PUSHES WEST. ADDED TEMPOS IN AT ALL INTERIOR TERMINALS
BETWEEN 19-24Z FOR VIS AND CIG REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA. CONDITIONS
WILL DRY OUT AREAWIDE BY 03Z WITH A RETURN OF LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 90 75 90 75 / 60 30 50 30
MCO 93 76 93 75 / 70 40 60 40
MLB 91 76 91 75 / 60 20 60 40
VRB 90 75 90 73 / 40 20 60 10
LEE 92 76 92 75 / 70 30 60 10
SFB 93 76 92 76 / 70 40 60 30
ORL 93 77 92 77 / 70 40 60 40
FPR 90 75 90 74 / 40 20 70 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SEDLOCK
AVIATION...TOLLEFSEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page