463
FXUS62 KMLB 041901
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
301 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2026
- LOCALLY HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO FLOODING ISSUES
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM LIGHTNING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. OTHER STORM THREATS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45
MPH AND OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
- A WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MAIN
STORM HAZARD WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO MOSTLY MINOR FLOODING.
- MUGGY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S WILL CONTINUE, WITH PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES
IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS, BUT BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2026
TODAY-SATURDAY... UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN US WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
SHIFT SOUTH AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE AXIS NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO SATURDAY. LOCALLY, LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL SHIFT ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE FORMATION OF THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE AND SLOW PUSH INLAND BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS FORECAST TO PUSH FARTHER
INLAND TODAY, WITH THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION FORECAST ACROSS THE
INTERIOR, GENERALLY EAST OF ORLANDO METRO AND I-95 LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION WILL THEN
OCCUR A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE COAST, GENERALLY AROUND THE I-95
CORRIDOR, IN THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL AID IN STORM FORMATION EACH DAY.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO FORM EACH
AFTERNOON (POP 40-70%), FIRST FORMING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE, WITH
HIGHEST COVERAGE OCCURRING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION. STORM
MOTIONS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY, AND MORE WESTERLY ON
SATURDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY MOIST PROFILE, WITH PW
VALUES OF 2.0-2.2". THE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS CONVECTION, WITH PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY (MUCAPE OF 1800-2300 J/KG), SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY
(LIFTED INDEX OF -5 TO -7), ADEQUATE SHEAR (SFC-6 KM SHEAR OF 10-15
KT), AND SUFFICIENT DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL (DCAPE 700-900 J/KG).
HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE RATHER WARM (-5C TO -6C AT 500 MB).
BECAUSE OF THIS, MAIN STORM HAZARDS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH, AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. QUICK AMOUNTS OF
2-4" OF RAINFALL IN A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME IN THESE SLOW-
MOVING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, PROMOTING MINOR/NUISANCE FLOODING IN
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC)
MAINTAINS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 4) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR
ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR, AND HUMID THROUGH SATURDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S EACH DAY WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES OF 100-107F. WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S.
SUNDAY-THURSDAY... UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN US SHIFTS EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT
THE SURFACE, AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
AND NORTHERN FLORIDA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, REACHING CENTRAL AND SOUTH
FLORIDA EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN DEEP MOISTURE
SHIFTING OVER THE AREA INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN
TO FILTER ACROSS THE AREA MID-LATE WEEK. BECAUSE OF THIS, HIGHER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST, WITH POPS FORECAST TO BE
60-70% AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY, 80% AREAWIDE MONDAY, 60-80% TUESDAY, AND
40-70% WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. STORM MOTION WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
AND OFFSHORE-MOVING. STORM HAZARDS WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY ARE
TODAY. WPC OUTLOOKED ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IN A MARGINAL
(LEVEL 1 OF 4) RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON SUNDAY, AND AT LEAST
PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ON MONDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST EACH DAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT,
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2026
TODAY-TUESDAY... GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT
S/SW WINDS WILL BECOME S/SE AT 10-12 KT EACH AFTERNOON AS THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE FORMS. DIURNAL OFFSHORE-MOVING SHOWERS/STORMS INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE WITH PRIMARY IMPACTS
OF FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESSIVE OF 34 KT OR GREATER,
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE VICINITY OF STORMS. SEAS
2-3 FT TODAY WILL SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, BEFORE
BUILDING TO 2-4 FT ON TUESDAY, AND UP TO 5 FT IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS
POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2026
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES THIS AFTERNOON. PREVAILING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TURN EAST-SOUTHEAST AS THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE CONTINUES TO PUSH PAST THE COASTAL TERMINALS. HIGHEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY BE FAVORED ACROSS
THE INTERIOR WITH TSRA TEMPOS AT MCO/ISM/LEE (19Z-23Z) AND SFB
(20Z-24Z). THUNDER CHANCES MOSTLY DIMINISH BEFORE OR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET WITH LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE NORTH THIS
EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS. LIGHT PREVAILING WINDS SHIFT SOUTHWEST TO WEST
SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 75 91 75 92 / 30 50 10 70
MCO 76 93 76 93 / 40 60 20 70
MLB 76 92 75 92 / 30 60 20 70
VRB 75 90 73 91 / 20 60 20 70
LEE 76 92 75 92 / 20 50 10 60
SFB 76 93 76 93 / 40 60 10 70
ORL 77 93 77 93 / 40 60 20 70
FPR 75 90 74 91 / 20 60 20 70
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WATSON
AVIATION...LAW
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