303
FXUS62 KMLB 050631
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
231 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 231 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026
- A WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN STORM HAZARD WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO MOSTLY
MINOR FLOODING.
- MUGGY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S WILL CONTINUE, WITH PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES
IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS, BUT BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 231 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026
CURRENT-SUNDAY...VERY MUGGY CONDITIONS EXIST PRESENTLY WITH TEMPS
AND DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 70S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL
SLOWLY SLIP SOUTH INTO CENTRAL FL DURING THE DAY AND FURTHER
SOUTHEAST & SEAWARD ON SUN. LIGHT SW/W WINDS WILL TRANSITION ONSHORE
IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST WITH ECSB FORMATION AND SLOW PUSH
INLAND (QUICKER ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST). A LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING
SEA BREEZE COLLISION BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
EASTERN PENINSULA - FURTHER TOWARD THE EAST COAST THAN ON FRI. STORM
STEERING IS LIGHT WRLY WHICH WILL BRING ACTIVITY BACK TOWARD THE
COAST AND ACROSS THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEAR SHORE ATLC WATERS. WEAK
TROUGHING IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL EXIST ALONG THE FL EAST COAST TODAY
WITH SOME MID-LEVEL ENERGY AVAILABLE FOR AIDING CONVECTION, THOUGH
TEMPS AT 500 MB REMAIN FAIRLY WARM AT -5.5C TO -6.5C, SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN ON FRI. SIMILAR TEMPS ALOFT ON SUN, THOUGH THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA. PWATS REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE 2", ESP CAPE SOUTHWARD
TODAY AND PERHAPS SOME DRIER AIR PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA ON SUN.
MAINLY DIURNAL POPS 50-70% TODAY AND 50-60% FOR SUN. PRIMARY STORM
IMPACTS REMAIN FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS LOCALLY 35-45
MPH, AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS CAPABLE OF 2-4" IN A RELATIVELY SHORT
PERIOD PROMOTING MINOR/NUISANCE FLOODING IN SLOW-MOVING STORMS OR
REPEATED ROUNDS. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER MAINTAINS A MARGINAL
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FL THRU THE
WEEKEND.
MAX TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO NEAR 90F TO L90S. HUMID
OVERNIGHT WITH MINS IN THE 70S. PEAK HEAT INDICES CONTINUE 100-107F
AHEAD OF DAILY STORMS.
MON-FRI...TROUGHINESS IN THE MID-LEVELS MOVES SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE
EASTERN SEABOARD AND FURTHER INTO THE WESTERN ATLC EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. MID-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL STRENGTHEN AND
BECOME MORE EXPANSIVE TOWARD THE DEEP SOUTH/SOUTHEAST U.S. WEAK EAST-
WEST ORIENTED MID-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL SLOWLY SLIDE DOWN THE
PENINSULA BECOMING FIXATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA INTO MID-
WEEK. THIS ENERGY WILL AID DIURNAL CONVECTION THRU THE PERIOD. MID-
LEVEL TEMPS FAIRLY CONSISTENT -5.5C TO -6.5C. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO THE DEEP SOUTH/NORTH FL EARLY NEXT WEEK FINALLY WASHING OUT BY
AROUND MID-WEEK. THE NBM CONTINUES TO FAVOR HIGHER THAN NORMAL POPS
THRU MID NEXT WEEK. STORM IMPACTS CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. THE ECSB WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON, BUT WILL
REMAIN LIMITED ACROSS THE EASTERN FL PENINSULA INTO MON, BUT MUCH
DEPENDS ON THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH. STORM MOTION STILL LIGHT OFFSHORE
THRU TUE, THEN MORE LIGHT/VARIABLE INTO THE REST OF THE EXTENDED.
GENERALLY NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS FOR HIGHS (U80S-L90S) WITH LOWS IN THE
70S CONTINUING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 231 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026
THRU WEDNESDAY...FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE WITH DAILY
SEA BREEZE FORMATION AS WINDS TRANSITION TO ESE/SE 10-12 KTS ALONG
THE COAST. INLAND PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE LIMITED THRU
MAYBE MON. DIURNAL OFFSHORE-MOVING SHOWERS/STORMS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS STORM MOTION REMAINS MOSTLY WRLY. A FEW STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE WITH PRIMARY IMPACTS OF FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS,
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH INTO
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK, ESP IN THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE GULF STREAM, WHERE A FEW
STRONG STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER INVOF
STORMS. SEAS 1-2 FT THRU MON NIGHT, BUILDING TO 2-4 FT AGAIN BY LATE
TUE AND PERHAPS 5 FT WELL OFFSHORE (VOLUSIA COAST) TUE NIGHT/EARLY
WED. BOATING CONDITIONS MOSTLY FAVORABLE OUTSIDE OF STORMS INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING PICK UP OUT OF
THE SW BETWEEN 14-16Z AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. VCTS CHANCES INCREASE
AREAWIDE AFTER 17Z, WITH HIGHEST RAIN AND STORM CHANCES
ANTICIPATED CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST TODAY. TEMPOS AND/OR PROB30S
WILL LIKELY BE ADDED IN WITH THE 12Z PACKAGE AT MOST IF NOT ALL
SITES, BUT THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING.
ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO PUSH OFFSHORE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS,
WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND 02Z
ALONG THE COAST. LIGHT S TO SW WINDS OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 91 75 92 75 / 60 20 60 50
MCO 93 76 93 76 / 60 10 50 20
MLB 92 75 92 75 / 70 40 50 30
VRB 90 73 91 74 / 70 40 50 30
LEE 91 75 92 75 / 60 10 50 20
SFB 92 76 93 76 / 60 20 60 30
ORL 92 77 92 77 / 60 10 50 20
FPR 90 73 91 74 / 70 30 50 30
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SEDLOCK
AVIATION...TOLLEFSEN
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