117
FXUS62 KMLB 052350
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
750 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026
- A WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
MAIN STORM HAZARD WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO MOSTLY MINOR FLOODING.
- MUGGY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S WILL CONTINUE, WITH PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES
IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS, BUT BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
- THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL AREA BEACHES
TODAY. REMEMBER, ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD AND NEVER SWIM
ALONE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT... UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN US WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
SHIFT SOUTH AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE AXIS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY.
LOCALLY, LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT ONSHORE ALONG THE
COAST THIS THE AFTERNOON WITH THE FORMATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE AND MORE WESTWARD ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE. HOWEVER, THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS NOT EXPECTED TO PUSH
AS FAR INLAND TODAY, GIVEN THE DEEP OFFSHORE FLOW. THE SEA BREEZE
COLLISION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN
YESTERDAY, GENERALLY AROUND THE I-95 CORRIDOR, LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY, UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL AID IN STORM FORMATION.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO FORM THIS
AFTERNOON (POP 50-70%). ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA FROM THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS FORMING
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IN SOUTHERN TREASURE COAST. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
STORMS WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION, ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING. STORM MOTION
WILL GENERALLY BE WESTERLY TODAY, WHICH WILL BRING ACTIVITY BACK
TOWARDS THE COAST AND OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW A VERY MOIST PROFILE, WITH PW VALUES OF 2.0-2.3". THE
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS CONVECTION, WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY (MUCAPE
OF 1800-2300 J/KG), SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY (LIFTED INDEX OF -5 TO -8),
AND SUFFICIENT DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL (DCAPE 700-900 J/KG). HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES ALOFT REMAIN RATHER WARM (-5C TO -6C AT 500 MB).
BECAUSE OF THIS, MAIN STORM HAZARDS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH, AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. QUICK AMOUNTS OF
2-4" OF RAINFALL IN A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME IN THESE SLOW-
MOVING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, PROMOTING MINOR/NUISANCE FLOODING IN
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC)
MAINTAINS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 4) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR
PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY, MAINLY FROM CAPE CANAVERAL
TO LAKE KISSIMMEE SOUTHWARD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HUMID WITH SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
90S WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES OF 100-107F. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
SUNDAY-FRIDAY... UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN US SHIFTS EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT
THE SURFACE, AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO THE DEEP SOUTH
AND NORTHERN FLORIDA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY
WITH EXACTLY HOW FAR THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAKE IT BEFORE IT
WASHES OUT BY MID NEXT WEEK. REGARDLESS, THIS WILL RESULT IN DEEP
MOISTURE SHIFTING OVER THE AREA INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY. DRIER AIR
WILL BEGIN TO FILTER ACROSS THE AREA MID-LATE WEEK. BECAUSE OF THIS,
HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH POPS FORECAST TO BE 30-50% ON SUNDAY, BEFORE INCREASING TO 70-
80% MONDAY, 70% AREAWIDE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AND 40-70%
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. STORM MOTION WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
OFFSHORE. STORM HAZARDS WILL BE SIMILAR TO WHAT THEY ARE TODAY. WPC
HAS OUTLOOKED PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IN A MARGINAL (LEVEL
1 OF 4) RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST EACH DAY, WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026
TODAY-THURSDAY... GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LIGHT S/SW WINDS WILL BECOME S/SE AT 10-12 KT EACH AFTERNOON AS
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FORMS. DIURNAL OFFSHORE-MOVING
SHOWERS/STORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
WITH PRIMARY IMPACTS OF FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS IN
EXCESSIVE OF 34 KT OR GREATER, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. COVERAGE OF
STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS LOCALLY
HIGHER IN THE VICINITY OF STORMS. SEAS 2-3 FT TODAY WILL SUBSIDE
TO 1-2 FT SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, BEFORE BUILDING TO 2-4 FT ON
TUESDAY, AND UP TO 5 FT IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY
NIGHT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS OKEECHOBEE AND THE TREASURE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. DRY
CONDITIONS THEN BUILD OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS VEER THROUGH THE
NIGHT, BECOMING ESTABLISHED OUT OF THE WEST AGAIN TOMORROW. THE
PREVAILING WEST FLOW (6-10 KTS) SHOULD DELAY EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
BEFORE TURNING WINDS EAST AT COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH VCTS MENTIONED AT ALL EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TERMINALS
AFTER 19Z/20Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 75 92 75 90 / 10 40 40 80
MCO 76 93 76 92 / 20 40 20 80
MLB 75 93 75 91 / 30 40 20 80
VRB 73 91 74 90 / 40 40 20 80
LEE 75 92 75 90 / 10 40 30 80
SFB 76 93 76 91 / 10 50 30 80
ORL 77 93 77 92 / 10 40 20 80
FPR 74 91 74 90 / 30 40 20 70
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WATSON
AVIATION...LAW
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