945
FXUS62 KMLB 061743
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
143 PM EDT SUN SEP 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT SUN SEP 6 2026
- A WET WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK. THE
MAIN STORM HAZARD WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO MOSTLY MINOR FLOODING.
- MUGGY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S (FEW MID 90S TODAY) WILL CONTINUE, WITH PEAK
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS, BUT BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
- THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL AREA BEACHES AGAIN
TODAY. REMEMBER, ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD AND NEVER SWIM
ALONE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT SUN SEP 6 2026
CURRENT-MONDAY...CONTINUED WARM AND HUMID EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 70S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIP SOUTH/EAST AWAY FROM ECFL WITH THE
APPROACH OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS WEAK
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH FL BY EARLY MON MORNING WITH PERHAPS A
BIT MORE SOUTHWARD ADVANCEMENT INTO NORTH/CENTRAL FL BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. LIGHT SW/W WINDS WILL TRANSITION ONSHORE IN THE
AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST WITH ECSB FORMATION (POSSIBLY DELAYED)
AND SLOW PUSH INLAND EACH DAY (QUICKER ACROSS THE TREASURE
COAST). A LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING SEA BREEZE COLLISION BOTH
TODAY/MON WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE EASTERN PENINSULA. STORM STEERING
WILL BE LIGHT NWRLY TODAY AND LIGHT WRLY ON MON WHICH WILL BRING
ACTIVITY BACK TOWARD THE COAST AND ACROSS THE INTRACOASTAL AND
NEAR SHORE ATLC WATERS. FORMER TROUGHING IN THE MID-LEVELS MOVES
AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY, BUT ADDITIONAL EAST-WEST ORIENTED
TROUGHING WILL SLIDE DOWN THE PENINSULA ON MON. TEMPS AT 500 MB
REMAIN FAIRLY WARM AT -5.5C TO -6.5C. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL SURGE
BACK INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY AND CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA FOR
MON. STILL MAINLY DIURNAL POPS 30-60% TODAY (HIGHEST NORTH
BREVARD-ORANGE COUNTY NORTHWARD) AND 70-80% FOR MON WITH MID-LEVEL
ENERGY ENHANCING AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION. PRIMARY STORM
IMPACTS REMAIN FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS LOCALLY
35-50 MPH, AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS CAPABLE OF 2-4" IN A
RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD PROMOTING MINOR/NUISANCE FLOODING IN SLOW-
MOVING STORMS OR REPEATED ROUNDS.
MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO TODAY IN THE L90S (FEW M90S POSSIBLE)
AND U80S TO L90S FOR MON. HUMID OVERNIGHT WITH MINS IN THE 70S. PEAK
HEAT INDICES CONTINUE 100-107F AHEAD OF DAILY STORMS.
TUE-SAT...THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED TROUGH IN THE MID-LEVELS ACROSS
CENTRAL FL LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA THRU WED, THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENS
AND LIFTS NORTHWARD AS NEARLY ZONAL FLOW RETURNS TOWARD LATE WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THE
AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY HOVERS NEAR NORTH/CENTRAL TO
CENTRAL FL INTO MID-WEEK BEFORE WASHING OUT. THE NBM CONTINUES TO
KEY IN ON DEEP MOISTURE SURGING IN PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY,
THUS FAVORING HIGHER THAN NORMAL POPS TUE (70-80%), WED-THU
(60-70%), WITH ONLY A SLIGHT DIP FRI-SAT (50-60%). STORM IMPACTS
CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE ECSB WILL
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON, AND MAY BE ABLE TO PENETRATE FURTHER
INLAND DURING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. STORM MOTION REMAINS FAIRLY
WEAK AND VARIABLE (ERRATIC), BUT EXPECT SOME ACTIVITY TO
PERIODICALLY PUSH BACK TOWARD THE COAST, ESP SURROUNDING STRONGER
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. GENERALLY NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS FOR HIGHS
(U80S-L90S) WITH LOWS IN THE 70S AND CONDITIONS HUMID.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 233 AM EDT SUN SEP 6 2026
THRU THURSDAY...FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES WITH DAILY
SEA BREEZE FORMATION AS WINDS TRANSITION TO ESE/SE 10-12 KTS ALONG
THE COAST. INLAND PROGRESSION OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE LIMITED THRU
MON AND POSSIBLY DELAYED A BIT EACH AFTERNOON. DIURNAL OFFSHORE-
MOVING SHOWERS/LIGHTNING STORMS INTO EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK (AFFECTING
INTRACOASTAL/NEAR SHORE WATERS) AS STORM MOTION REMAINS MOSTLY LIGHT
WRLY. A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE WITH PRIMARY IMPACTS OF FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 34 KTS, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH INTO EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK, ESP
IN THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY MOSTLY
CONFINED TO THE GULF STREAM, WHERE A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING/GUSTY WINDS. SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER
INVOF STORMS. SEAS CONTINUE MAINLY 1-2 FT THRU MON NIGHT, BUILDING
TO 2-4 FT AGAIN BY LATE TUE AND PERHAPS 5 FT WELL OFFSHORE
(VOLUSIA & BREVARD COASTS) TUE NIGHT/WED. BOATING CONDITIONS
REMAIN MOSTLY FAVORABLE OUTSIDE OF STORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT SUN SEP 6 2026
ONGOING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION CURRENTLY NORTH AND WEST
OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP, AND
PREVAILING WESTERLY FLOW (6-10 KTS) SHOULD KEEP THE BOUNDARY CLOSE
TO THE COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL FAVOR
THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AT COASTAL TERMINALS
WITH TSRA TEMPOS AT DAB/TIX/MLB AND PROB30S AT VRB/FPR/SUA.
OTHERWISE, VCTS IS MENTIONED AT ALL EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
TERMINALS. SOME CONVECTION MAY LINGER ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
AROUND 02Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 75 89 75 87 / 30 80 60 60
MCO 76 92 75 91 / 30 80 50 80
MLB 76 91 75 90 / 30 70 60 70
VRB 74 90 74 89 / 20 70 60 70
LEE 75 90 75 89 / 40 80 40 80
SFB 76 91 75 90 / 40 80 50 80
ORL 77 91 76 90 / 30 80 50 80
FPR 74 90 74 89 / 20 70 50 70
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SEDLOCK
AVIATION...LAW
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