714
FXUS62 KMLB 071122
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
722 AM EDT MON SEP 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 236 AM EDT MON SEP 7 2026
- A WET WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH THIS WEEK. THE MAIN
STORM HAZARD WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO MOSTLY MINOR FLOODING. OTHERWISE,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
- MUGGY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S WILL CONTINUE, WITH PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES
IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS, BUT BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
- THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL AREA BEACHES AGAIN
TODAY. REMEMBER, ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD AND NEVER SWIM
ALONE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 236 AM EDT MON SEP 7 2026
CURRENT-TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS SURPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH/EAST AND
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH INTO NORTH FL AND MAY SETTLE
FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH-CENTRAL/CENTRAL FL INTO TUE. LIGHT WRLY
FLOW WILL TRANSITION ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST WITH
ECSB FORMATION, POSSIBLY DELAYED AGAIN, AND INLAND MOVEMENT WILL BE
SLOW TODAY. A WEAKER PGRAD WILL BE IN PLACE ON TUE WITH QUICKER
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE AND FURTHER PENETRATION INLAND. PWATS
WELL IN EXCESS OF 2" AND WITH ADVANCING FRONT COUPLED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND SEA BREEZE/VARIOUS OTHER BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS; WE WILL
SEE A HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/LIGHTNING STORMS (70-80%). EXPECT
EARLIER INITIATION OF CONVECTION (POSSIBLY MID-LATE MORNING) ESP
NEAR THE KISSIMMEE RIVER NORTHWARD AND ACTIVITY PUSHING OFF OF THE
EAST COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. STORM STEERING WILL
BE W/NW AROUND 10 MPH BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW. ALOFT, EXPECT EAST-
WEST ORIENTED TROUGHING TO SLIDE DOWN THE PENINSULA INTO THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA TODAY AND LINGER INTO TUE. TEMPS AT 500 MB ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN CONSISTENT AT -5.5C TO -6.5C. POPS ON TUE CONTINUING FAIRLY
HIGH AT 50-60%. PRIMARY STORM IMPACTS REMAIN FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS LOCALLY 40-50 MPH, AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS
CAPABLE OF 2-4" IN A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD (PERHAPS TO 5" IN A
COUPLE SPOTS TODAY) PROMOTING MINOR/NUISANCE FLOODING IN REPEATED
ROUNDS.
MAX TEMPS NEAR CLIMO IN THE U80S/L90S. HUMID OVERNIGHT WITH MINS IN
THE 70S. PEAK HEAT INDICES CONTINUE ABOVE 100F AHEAD OF DAILY
STORMS.
WED-SUN...MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA BEGINS
TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD AND WEAKENS ACROSS NORTH FL INTO LATE WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE, THE WEAK AFOREMENTIONED FROM WILL ALSO LIFT BACK
NORTH BECOMING DIFFUSE THRU THU. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE AS THE ATLC HIGH RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD BACK TOWARD THE
CENTRAL FL PENINSULA INTO THE WEEKEND. PWAT VALUES REMAIN IN EXCESS
OF 2" THRU THE EXTENDED. THE ECSB WILL DEVELOP DAILY AND PENETRATE
INLAND WITH LATE DAY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS BETWEEN THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
FL PENINSULA. WEAK/ERRATIC STORM STEERING ON WED WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME SW/W THRU AT LEAST SAT, BRINGING STORMS BACK TO THE COAST
EACH LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING. MOSTLY DIURNAL CONVECTION CONTINUES
WITH FAIRLY HIGH NUMBERS AND HAVE CAPPED POPS AT 60-70% AREAWIDE
WED-SUN UNTIL A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN DICTATES OTHERWISE. PRIMARY
STORM IMPACTS CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
GENERALLY NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS FOR HIGHS (U80S-L90S) WITH LOWS IN
THE 70S AND CONDITIONS REMAINING HUMID.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 236 AM EDT MON SEP 7 2026
TODAY-FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN PUSHED SOUTH/EAST OF
THE LOCAL WATERS LEAVING A FAIRLY WEAK PGRAD IN PLACE. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO NORTH FL EARLY TODAY AND CONTINUE TO
SETTLE FURTHER SOUTH TONIGHT/TUE TOWARD/INTO CENTRAL FL. INITIAL
OFFSHORE FLOW THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION ONSHORE IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH A DEGREE OF VARIABILITY REMAINING OVER THE OPEN
ATLC, AND ESP WHERE CONVECTION IS CONCERNED LATER TODAY/EVENING.
WITH ADVANCING BOUNDARY, WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SOUTH
OF THE CAPE AND MORE N/NE NORTHWARD THRU THE NIGHT. ON TUE, WINDS
WILL SHIFT ONSHORE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TRANSITION
TO ESE/SE 10-12 KTS ALONG THE COAST WITH SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
EACH DAY INTO THE EXTENDED.
EXPECT EARLIER INITIATION OF STORMS DEVELOPING OVER LAND AND
PUSHING OFF OF THE COAST TODAY WITH INITIAL ISOLD-SCT COVERAGE
BECOMING LOCALLY NMRS-WSPD. DIURNAL OFFSHORE-MOVING SHOWERS AND
LIGHTNING STORMS WILL CONTINUE THRU MID-LATE WEEK AFFECTING
INTRACOASTAL/NEAR SHORE WATERS. A FEW STRONG STORMS, ARE POSSIBLE
WITH PRIMARY IMPACTS OF FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 40 KTS, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY MOSTLY CONFINED
TO THE GULF STREAM, WHERE A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING/GUSTY WINDS. SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER INVOF
STORMS. SEAS CONTINUE MAINLY 1-2 FT INTO THIS EVENING, BUILDING
TO 2-4 FT AGAIN BY TUE AFTERNOON. SEAS CONTINUE 3-4 FT ON WED,
POSSIBLY 5 FT ACROSS THE VOLUSIA WATERS INTO WED EVENING GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING WED NIGHT-FRI BACK TOWARD 2-3 FT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT MON SEP 7 2026
SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY STARTED, ANTICIPATED TO EXPAND EASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. VCSH AT ALL INTERIOR TERMINALS WITH
WESTERLY FLOW AREAWIDE, BECOMING VCTS AFTER 17Z AND REACHING THE
COASTAL TERMINALS BY 18Z. WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY ALONG THE
COAST AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. ADDED TEMPOS TO ALL
SITES FOR VIS AND CIG REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA BETWEEN 17-24Z.
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER 02Z ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND 03Z ALONG
THE COAST, WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS RETURNING OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 88 75 87 76 / 80 50 60 20
MCO 90 75 90 75 / 80 40 60 40
MLB 90 76 88 77 / 80 50 60 30
VRB 90 74 88 75 / 80 50 60 30
LEE 89 75 89 75 / 80 30 60 30
SFB 90 75 88 75 / 80 40 50 30
ORL 90 76 89 76 / 80 40 60 40
FPR 90 74 88 75 / 80 40 60 30
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SEDLOCK
AVIATION...TOLLEFSEN
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