918
FXUS62 KMLB 220543
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
143 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2026
- AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY.
- A COOL FRONT LATE WEEK WILL BRING LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND DRIER
AIR INTO THE WEEKEND.
- BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO
DETERIORATING BEACH AND BOATING CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2026
REST OF TODAY-WEDNESDAY...A STALLED UPPER LEVEL LOW LINGERS OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY. THIS FEATURE IS PROVIDING ENOUGH
ENHANCEMENT TO DEVELOP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY SOUTH OF
ORLANDO. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, CLEARING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA BY
SUNSET. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THEN PREVAIL OVERNIGHT OVER LAND
AREAS. HOWEVER, PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS MAY OCCASIONALLY DRIFT ONSHORE INTO COASTAL AREAS
OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STORMS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH, LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF 1-3". LOW TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE LOWER TO
MID-70S TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR,
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF ORLANDO.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH THE CENTRAL US WILL PUSH
THE LOW NE AND MERGE WITH IT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DEEP MOISTURE
(PWATS 2-2.3") AND THE CONTINUED UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN
HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS (40-70%) THROUGH MID-WEEK. A
FEW STRONG STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. BUT, 500 MB TEMPERATURES
WARMING FROM AROUND -8 C TODAY TO -5 TO -6 C BY WEDNESDAY WILL
LIMIT THE THREAT OVERALL. ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY NNE
THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT REMAINS AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS. WINDS
OVERNIGHT BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE, SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
THREAT FOR PATCHY FOG EACH NIGHT, ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR.
OTHERWISE, WARM HIGHS CONTINUE TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S, WHICH COMBINE WITH HIGH HUMIDITY TO PRODUCE HEAT INDICES
98-102 DEGREES.
THURSDAY-MONDAY...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS INTO
THURSDAY MORNING OFFSHORE FROM THE NE US. MEANWHILE, THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO FLORIDA, DRAGGING A COOL FRONT SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE PENINSULA. HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN
ON THURSDAY (50-70%), MAINLY ALONG THE WEAKENING FRONT. HOWEVER,
WILL SEE PROGRESSIVELY LOWER RAIN CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH INTO
THE WEEKEND, AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. PWATS FALL BELOW
1.5" THIS WEEKEND, LEADING TO POPS 20-40% OR LESS, HIGHEST ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE BREEZY AND GUSTY NNE
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINNING ON THURSDAY. WINDS BUILD TO 10-15
MPH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND 15-20 MPH FRIDAY, WITH GUSTS 20-30 MPH.
THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE FORECAST ALONG THE COAST, ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF THE CAPE. BREEZY CONDITIONS LINGER SATURDAY, BEFORE WINDS FALL
TO AROUND 10 MPH AGAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW
WILL LEAD TO POOR TO HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND.
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ARE
FORECAST, THOUGH LOWER HUMIDITY WILL PROVIDE RELIEF FROM HEAT
INDICES ABOVE 100. INLAND LOCATIONS COULD EVEN SEE LOWS IN THE
60S BY THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2026
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS, ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT,
WILL REMAIN A THREAT OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING
CONDITIONS PERSIST, WITH NE WINDS REMAINING AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS.
SEAS 1-3 FT.
A NOR'EASTER OFF OF THE NE US COAST WILL DRAG A COOL FRONT THROUGH
THE LOCAL WATERS THURSDAY. NE WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KTS,
PROGRESSING FARTHER SOUTHWARD INTO FRIDAY. WINDS THEN REMAIN
BREEZY AROUND 10-15 KTS INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGHER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGERS THURSDAY, BEFORE DRIER AIR
REDUCES CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND. HAZARDOUS SEAS UP TO 6-9 FT ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 131 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
MOSTLY VFR AND QUIET AT ECFL TAF TERMINALS TONIGHT. SOME SHRA MAY
BRUSH THE COAST OCCASIONALLY, BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH +FOR EVEN
VC MENTION. THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCES FOR BR/FG INVOF KLEE-KISM
EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT AGAIN TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN TAFS. WINDS
LIGHT/VRB TONIGHT AND THIS MORNING, BECOMING NE-E 5-10 KTS AS THE
ATLANTIC BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OUTFLOW FROM TS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS NE
OF THE AREA WILL GET THE SEA BREEZE MOVING INLAND UP NORTH FIRST
(AFTER 15Z), FOLLOWED BY DOWN SOUTH (AFTER 17Z). TS MAY DEVELOP
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AS EARLY AS 15Z, BUT GENERALLY
EXPECTED AFTER 17Z, WITH A SEA BREEZE COLLISION INVOF OF KMCO/
OTHER INLAND TERMINALS TO INVOF KMLB-KSUA AFTER 19Z. ADDED PROB30S
AT MOST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TERMINALS, AND MAY NEED TO UPGRADE
TO TEMPOS IN LATER PACKAGES IF CONFIDENCE FOR TS IMPACTS
INCREASES. MOST TS FORECAST TO DIMINISH AFTER AROUND 23Z-01Z,
BUT SOME MAY LINGER AS LATE AS 05Z, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COAST. WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VRB AGAIN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 88 75 88 75 / 30 10 50 20
MCO 91 75 90 74 / 50 20 60 10
MLB 88 74 88 75 / 50 20 60 20
VRB 88 73 87 73 / 50 20 60 20
LEE 91 74 91 74 / 40 20 60 10
SFB 90 74 90 74 / 40 20 60 10
ORL 90 75 90 75 / 50 20 60 10
FPR 88 72 87 72 / 60 30 70 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WISHARD
AVIATION...HALEY
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