713
FXUS62 KMLB 220653
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
253 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
- AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY.
- A COOL FRONT LATE WEEK WILL BRING LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND DRIER
AIR INTO THE WEEKEND.
- BREEZY TO WINDY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
LEAD TO DETERIORATING BEACH AND BOATING CONDITIONS INTO LATE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
TODAY-WEDNESDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS LINGERED ACROSS THE
AREA FINALLY WEAKENS AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST TODAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE AREA WITH WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE EACH
MORNING, BECOMING ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON AROUND 5-10 MPH AS SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND. MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE,
WITH PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK, MAINLY
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH THE INLAND MOVING
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. RAIN CHANCES RANGE FROM 40-60% TODAY AND RISE
SLIGHTLY TO 50-70% ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM ALOFT AS
LOW ALOFT BREAKS DOWN AND LIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION, AND THE FAIRLY
SATURATED AIRMASS KEEPS DCAPE VALUES RELATIVELY LOW (AROUND 500-700
J/KG). HOWEVER, CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG STORMS
EACH AFTERNOON. PRIMARY THREAT LOOKS TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF
1-3" DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW, WHICH MAY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF
ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. HOWEVER, GUSTY WINDS TO 40-50 MPH
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER
CONVECTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE
PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 100-103F EACH AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
DEVELOPING STORMS. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST EACH
NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH LATE WEEK, AS MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S COAST. THIS WILL PUSH A
COOL FRONT THROUGH THE REGION INTO THURSDAY, WITH WINDS BECOMING
BREEZY TO WINDY OUT OF THE N/NE EACH DAY INTO LATE WEEK. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS UP TO 15-25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-35 MPH.
STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE FOCUSED
ALONG THE VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTY COASTLINES. THE INCREASE IN
WINDS WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS SURF AND BOATING CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING INTO LATE WEEK. PW VALUES BEGIN TO DECREASE, BUT THERE
WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WITH THE PASSING FRONT TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THURSDAY
(RAIN CHANCES UP TO 50-70%). RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO DECREASE INTO
FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE AREA, WITH BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS (POPS 30-50%) FOCUSED ALONG THE
COAST AND INLAND SOUTHEAST OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR.
TEMPERATURES ONLY SLIGHTLY DECREASE AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH INTO LATE
WEEK, WITH HIGHS STILL REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS (EXCEPT LOW 80S ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST FRIDAY).
OVERNIGHT LOWS CONTINUE IN THE 70S THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT MAY START
TO SEE MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S CREEP IN ACROSS THE INTERIOR
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY-MONDAY...A SLIGHT TASTE OF FALL FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE AREA,
LEADING TO LOWERING RAIN CHANCES AND DECREASING HUMIDITY. HIGHS WILL
STILL REACH INTO THE 80S, BUT DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL MAKE FOR
MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FORECAST
TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST, AND THEN WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE
TO AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
TODAY-WEDNESDAY...PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
AND LIFTS NORTHEAST AS IT GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS. WIND SPEEDS REMAIN
5-10 KNOTS AND WILL BE RATHER VARIABLE WITH A MORE OFFSHORE
COMPONENT IN THE MORNING BECOMING ONSHORE INTO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS SEA BREEZE FORMS AND MOVES INLAND. SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FEET THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MAIN HAZARD TO BOATERS WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE WATERS, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE NIGHTTIME AND MORNING HOURS.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN U.S. COAST DEVELOPS
INTO A NOR'EASTER AS IT CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH
LATE WEEK, WITH A COOL FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS
THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DETERIORATING BOATING CONDITIONS, WITH
N/NE WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25 KNOTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 7-10 FEET
THROUGH FRIDAY. N/NE WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT
MAY STILL REMAIN UP TO 15-20 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED UP TO 7-9 FEET THOUGH, CONTINUING TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGERS THURSDAY, WITH DRIER AIR THEN GRADUALLY
REDUCING RAIN CHANCES LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 131 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
MOSTLY VFR AND QUIET AT ECFL TAF TERMINALS TONIGHT. SOME SHRA MAY
BRUSH THE COAST OCCASIONALLY, BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH +FOR EVEN
VC MENTION. THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCES FOR BR/FG INVOF KLEE-KISM
EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT AGAIN TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN TAFS. WINDS
LIGHT/VRB TONIGHT AND THIS MORNING, BECOMING NE-E 5-10 KTS AS THE
ATLANTIC BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OUTFLOW FROM TS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS NE
OF THE AREA WILL GET THE SEA BREEZE MOVING INLAND UP NORTH FIRST
(AFTER 15Z), FOLLOWED BY DOWN SOUTH (AFTER 17Z). TS MAY DEVELOP
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AS EARLY AS 15Z, BUT GENERALLY
EXPECTED AFTER 17Z, WITH A SEA BREEZE COLLISION INVOF OF KMCO/
OTHER INLAND TERMINALS TO INVOF KMLB-KSUA AFTER 19Z. ADDED PROB30S
AT MOST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TERMINALS, AND MAY NEED TO UPGRADE
TO TEMPOS IN LATER PACKAGES IF CONFIDENCE FOR TS IMPACTS
INCREASES. MOST TS FORECAST TO DIMINISH AFTER AROUND 23Z-01Z,
BUT SOME MAY LINGER AS LATE AS 05Z, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COAST. WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VRB AGAIN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 88 75 88 75 / 30 10 50 20
MCO 91 75 90 74 / 50 20 60 10
MLB 88 74 88 75 / 50 20 60 20
VRB 88 73 87 73 / 50 20 60 20
LEE 91 74 91 74 / 40 20 60 10
SFB 90 74 90 74 / 40 20 60 10
ORL 90 75 90 75 / 50 20 60 10
FPR 88 72 87 72 / 60 30 70 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WEITLICH
AVIATION...HALEY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page