571
FXUS62 KMLB 230551
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
151 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
- AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MID-WEEK.
- A COOL FRONT PASSAGE ON THURSDAY WILL BRING BREEZY TO WINDY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS, DETERIORATING BEACH AND BOATING
CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.
- DRIER AIR WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
REST OF TODAY-WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY, SLOWING AND REACHING NORTH FLORIDA BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH MOISTURE (PWATS 2-2.3") AND THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
(40-70%), ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS. THE SEA BREEZE WILL
BE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR CONVECTION, WITH ONSHORE FLOW PUSHING
ACTIVITY WESTWARD INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW STRONG
STORMS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH, CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT
WARMING 500 MB TEMPERATURES (TO AS WARM AS -5 TO -6 C) WILL LIMIT
THE THREAT OVERALL. INSTEAD, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1-3" LOOKS
TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT, WITH AMPLE MOISTURE TO TAP INTO. DRIER
CONDITIONS DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH OFFSHORE STEERING
FLOW KEEP A MAJORITY OF PERSISTENT OVERNIGHT CONVECTION OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS.
WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOONS, BUT BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WILL SEE WINDS BACK NNE THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK COOL FRONT APPROACHES. PATCHY FOG
CANNOT BE RULED OUT, MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST, LATE AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, THOUGH
CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW (10%). HIGH TEMPERATURES STAY WARM IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, WITH LOWS IN THE MID-70S.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS OFF OF THE
NORTHEAST US COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, DRAGGING THE
AFOREMENTIONED WEAKENING COOL FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
FLORIDA. HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS FORECAST ONCE
AGAIN FOR THURSDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT (POPS 50-70%).
HOWEVER, DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY,
LIMITING POPS TO 10-30%. THE HIGHEST POPS ARE FORECAST ALONG THE
COAST AND SOUTH, NEAREST TO THE FRONT. BREEZY TO WINDY NNE WINDS
DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. SUSTAINED WINDS 15-20 MPH, WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH THEN
SPREAD SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY. THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE ALONG THE
COAST, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
DECREASE, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THURSDAY
REMAINING IN THE 80S FRIDAY.
SATURDAY-TUESDAY...AN EARLY TASTE OF FALL, AT LEAST BY FLORIDA
STANDARDS, IS FORECAST THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRIER
AIR LINGERS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, MAINTAINING LOW RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA (30% OR
LESS) AND BELOW MENTIONABLE POPS ELSEWHERE. MOST PLEASANT OF ALL,
PERHAPS, WILL BE THE LOWER HUMIDITY. MAX HEAT INDICES WILL BE NEAR
TO ONLY A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN FORECAST HIGHS, WHICH REACH THE
MID-80S. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE 60S. BREEZY AND GUSTY
NE WINDS SATURDAY SLACKEN INTO THE NEW WEEK, REMAINING ONSHORE
OVERALL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
DESPITE PERSISTENT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS.
CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
OCCASIONALLY BRUSHING THE COAST. OTHERWISE, E WINDS TODAY BACK NNE
WEDNESDAY, BUT REMAIN 10 KTS OR LESS. SEAS 2-3 FT.
A FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS, BEFORE DRIER AIR LIMITS CONVECTION
INTO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE RAPIDLY FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING, AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE FRONT AND A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST. NNE WINDS 20-25+ KTS ARE
FORECAST, WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS. WINDS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD
THROUGH FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO SATURDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING.
HOWEVER, HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE, BUILDING TO 7-10
FT (HIGHEST IN THE GULF STREAM) THURSDAY AND LINGERING AT 5-7 FT
THROUGH SUNDAY. IMPROVED BOATING CONDITIONS LOOK TO BEGIN NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
NBM AND TO A LESSER EXTEND LAV/HREF GUIDANCE HAVE LOW (30% OR
LESS) CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP INVOF OF THE INLAND
TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. ADDED SCT015 TO KMCO/KISM AFTER 10Z
WHERE CHANCES ARE HIGHEST AND SATELLITE IMAGERY MAY BE SHOWING
SOME STRATUS DEVELOPMENT NEARBY, BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR TEMPOS OR EVEN
PROB30S AT THIS TIME. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT/VRB THROUGH MORNING,
THEN OUTFLOW FROM NOCTURNAL TS OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST SEABOARD IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE AT THE NORTHERN COAST (KDAB-KTIX) AFTER 17Z,
SHIFTING WINDS NE AROUND 10 KTS. TO THE SOUTH (KMLB-KSUA) THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE MAY SHIFT WINDS ERLY 5-10 KTS BEFORE ALSO
BECOMING NERLY AS THE OUTFLOW OVERRUNS THE AREA. INITIALLY ISO-
SCT TS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE OUTFLOW/SEA BREEZE WILL BECOME SCT-NUM
WHILE MOVING INLAND/SOUTH. MOVED START TIME OF TS A BIT EARLIER TO
17Z-19Z. IF THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE CAN DEVELOP, THE COLLISION
WILL BE WELL WEST OF THE ECFL TERMINALS, BUT WEAK/VRB STEERING
FLOW MAY PUSH SOME TS BACK EAST THROUGH 01Z. INCREASING ONSHORE
FLOW AFTER 23Z COULD SUPPORT ISO SHRA INVOF OF THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS, AND MVFR CIGS PARTS OF ECFL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 87 75 86 73 / 40 40 50 40
MCO 89 74 88 72 / 60 20 50 0
MLB 86 75 87 74 / 50 20 50 20
VRB 87 73 88 74 / 50 20 60 20
LEE 90 74 88 71 / 50 20 40 0
SFB 88 74 87 72 / 50 20 50 0
ORL 89 75 88 73 / 60 20 50 0
FPR 87 73 88 73 / 60 20 60 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
AMZ550-570.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
AMZ552-572.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THURSDAY TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
AMZ555-575.
DISCUSSION...WISHARD
AVIATION...HALEY
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