700
FNUS72 KMLB 230743
FWSMLB
SPOT FORECAST FOR OKA EAST CHOP...FLORIDA FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
343 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 EDT ON SEPTEMBER 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR OR IN THE VICINITY OF
THE BURN SITE THIS AFTERNOON (CHANCE OF RAIN AROUND 50%) AS THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS OR
STORMS AT THE BURN SITE WILL BE BETWEEN 1-5 PM. AN ISOLATED STRONG
STORM MAY BE POSSIBLE, PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-50 MPH, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1-3 INCHES. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE MORNING, BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND
5 TO 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM, WITH A
HIGH AROUND 90 DEGREES. MOIST AIRMASS WILL KEEP MIN RH VALUES ABOVE
60%, WITH FAIR DISPERSION VALUES FORECAST.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (55-65 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 90.
MIN HUMIDITY........66 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20
MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 7 TO 13 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....31 INCREASING TO 38 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............3.
TIME (EDT) 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........52 55 61 61 62 70 71
WEATHER COV..... CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 30 40 50 50 40 40
TEMP............85 87 87 88 86 85 84
RH..............77 70 70 66 70 70 72
20 FT WIND DIR..N N NE NE N N NE
20 FT WIND SPD..5 6 6 7 8 8 9
20 FT WIND GUST.10 12 13 15 17 18 20
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.8 3.0 3.3 3.2 2.6 2.3 2.6
TRANSP WIND DIR.N NE NE NE N N NE
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 7 8 8 9 10 13
DISPERSION IDX..27 30 34 27 29 28 38
LVORI...........3 3 3 3 3 3 3
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING,
THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE EVENING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 8 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 8 TO 13 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....34 DECREASING TO 5.
LVORI...............4 INCREASING TO 7.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........59 58 53 46 37 40 37 31 23 17 13 16
WEATHER COV.....CHC SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........CHC SCH SCH SCH
CHC OF PCPN (%).30 20 20 20 10 0 10 10 10 10 10 0
TEMP............81 80 79 78 77 77 76 76 75 75 75 75
RH..............79 82 85 88 90 90 94 94 94 94 94 94
20 FT WIND DIR..NE NE N N N N N N N N N N
20 FT WIND SPD..8 7 6 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 5 6
20 FT WIND GUST.18 16 14 12 10 9 9 9 9 10 12 12
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.2 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.4 1.2 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.NE NE N N N N NE N N N N N
TRANSP WIND SPD.13 12 10 9 9 8 9 8 9 8 9 9
DISPERSION IDX..34 16 7 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
LVORI...........3 3 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 6
THURSDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING, THEN
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 88.
MIN HUMIDITY........63 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTH WINDS 6 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 26
MPH INCREASING TO 16 TO 18 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3800 FT AGL IN THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 8 TO 16 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
AROUND 18 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....4 INCREASING TO 63.
LVORI...............8 DECREASING TO 2.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........20 19 17 17 28 31 41 44 54 50 51 42
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC SCH
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 20 20 30 30 40 40 40 50
TEMP............73 74 75 77 81 84 85 86 85 87 85 83
RH..............100 97 97 94 85 77 72 70 70 63 67 70
20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N N N N N N N N N
20 FT WIND SPD..6 7 8 9 10 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
20 FT WIND GUST.13 14 15 18 20 21 23 25 26 28 29 30
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.5 1.2 2.0 2.7 2.9 3.5 3.2 3.8 3.4 3.3 3.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.N N N N N N N N N N N NE
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 9 13 14 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 18
DISPERSION IDX..4 4 19 36 52 52 54 54 59 55 55 63
LVORI...........8 7 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 1 1 2
FORECASTER...WEITLICH
REQUESTED BY...ANTONIO PARIS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2622347.0/MLB
.DELDT 09/23/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL ANTONIO.PARIS@FDACS.GOV
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page