523
FXUS62 KMLB 231106
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
706 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE
TODAY AND THURSDAY, WITH ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE.
- A COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW, USHERING IN BREEZY TO
WINDY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS THAT WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS BEACH
AND BOATING CONDITIONS FROM LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WILL LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND LEAD
TO A SLIGHT TASTE OF FALL THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT...LOW OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST STRENGTHENS
TODAY, PULLING A FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH FLORIDA WHERE IT WILL
STALL NEAR TO JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS (RAIN CHANCES 40-70%) FORECAST WITH THE INLAND MOVING
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON, AS A VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN
PLACE (PW VALUES 2-2.3"). THIS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL KEEP DCAPE
VALUES RATHER LOW, AROUND 500 J/KG, AND TEMPS ALOFT ARE RELATIVELY
WARM, AROUND -5 TO -6C AT 500 MB, SO STRONG STORM THREAT REMAINS
LOW. HOWEVER, CAN'T RULE OUT GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40-50 MPH AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH A FEW STORMS. MORE LIKELY HAZARD FROM
STORMS OR HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1-3"
WHICH MAY PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING, AS STEERING WINDS WILL BE WEAK.
CONVECTION DIMINISHES THIS EVENING, BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY
NORTH OF THE TREASURE COAST INTO TONIGHT.
SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S AT THE COAST AND UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S INLAND.
PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 98-102F. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. INTO LATE WEEK, AS SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE THE EASTERN
U.S. CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD. THIS WILL SHIFT THE
FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. BREEZY TO WINDY N/NE WINDS
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT TOMORROW AND CONTINUE INTO LATE WEEK, WHICH
WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS BOATING AND BEACH CONDITIONS. SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH ARE FORECAST NORTH OF
OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST TOMORROW, WITH HIGHEST WIND
SPEEDS/GUSTS FOCUSED AT THE COAST. SUSTAINED WINDS 15-20 MPH, WITH
GUSTS 25-30 MPH THEN SPREAD SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS FORECAST AGAIN ON THURSDAY (POPS 40-60%)
WITH PASSING FRONT. DRIER AIR WILL THEN LOWER RAIN CHANCES INTO
FRIDAY, WITH ONLY LOW END RAIN CHANCES (20-30%) FOCUSED ALONG THE
COAST.
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON FRIDAY, DROP JUST SLIGHTLY FRIDAY
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 70S THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN AS DRIER/COOLER AIR WORKS
INTO THE AREA WILL SEE LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS NEAR TO SOUTH OF THE
CAPE, HOWEVER, MAY REMAIN IN THE LOW 70S.
SATURDAY-TUESDAY...DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS FORECAST
INTO THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, GIVING US OUR FIRST TASTE
OF FALL. WHILE HIGHS STILL REACH INTO THE 80S, OVERNIGHT LOWS DROP
INTO THE 60S FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE EARLY TO MID JUNE (SEE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR LAST DATES BELOW). NOTICEABLY LOWER HUMIDITY WILL
ALSO MAKE CONDITIONS MORE COMFORTABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST THIS WEEKEND, WITH A GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY AS MOISTURE SLOWLY BUILDS. BREEZY
N/NE WINDS MAY CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST INTO SATURDAY, BUT WINDS
SUBSIDE THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT...FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WATERS. A FRONT WILL PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH FLORIDA TODAY, AND NEAR THE NORTHERN WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON AS IT STALLS. N/NE WINDS ACROSS THE VOLUSIA COUNTY
COASTAL WATERS INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS, BUT FARTHER SOUTH SPEEDS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN 5-10 KNOTS, BECOMING E/NE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2-3 FEET TODAY, INCREASING
UP TO 4 FEET NORTH OF THE CAPE INTO TONIGHT.
THURSDAY-SUNDAY...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP INTO
THURSDAY AS FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. N/NE WINDS
INCREASE TO 15-25 KNOTS, WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS, WHICH WILL BUILD
SEAS TO 7-12 FEET THROUGH FRIDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOES
INTO EFFECT FOR THE VOLUSIA COUNTY WATERS STARTING AT 8 AM
THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE DAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. THE SCA CONTINUES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL
EXPANSIONS NEEDED INTO THE WEEKEND AS SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO
SUBSIDE. N/NE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10-20 KNOTS SATURDAY
AND AROUND 10 KNOTS ON SUNDAY, BUT SEAS ARE FORECAST TO LINGER UP
TO 7-9 FEET INTO SATURDAY AND 4-6 FEET INTO SUNDAY.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE INTO THURSDAY, AND THEN DRIER AIR BUILDING IN BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL LEAD TO DECREASING COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY FRIDAY.
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 637 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS POSSIBLE STRATUS SW OF KISM, AND A COUPLE
OTHER SPOTS INLAND. SO FAR THESE HAVEN'T IMPACTED THE ECFL
TERMINALS, BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT/VRB THROUGH MORNING, THEN OUTFLOW FROM NOCTURNAL
TS OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST SEABOARD IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE AT THE
NORTHERN COAST (KDAB-KTIX) AFTER 17Z, SHIFTING WINDS NE AROUND 10
KTS. TO THE SOUTH (KMLB-KSUA) THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MAY SHIFT
WINDS ERLY 5-10 KTS BEFORE ALSO BECOMING NERLY AS THE OUTFLOW
OVERRUNS THE AREA. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SHRA TO DEVELOP AS
EARLY AS 15Z, BUT NOT ENOUGH MODEL AGREEMENT TO SUPPORT CHANGING
TIMING, AND STAYING WITH PREVIOUS 16Z-18Z START TIME. INITIALLY
ISO-SCT TS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE OUTFLOW/SEA BREEZE WILL BECOME SCT-
NUM WHILE MOVING INLAND/SOUTH. IF THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE CAN
DEVELOP, THE COLLISION WILL BE WELL WEST OF THE ECFL TERMINALS.
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AFTER 23Z COULD SUPPORT ISO SHRA INVOF THE
COASTAL TERMINALS, SOME OF WHICH MAY MAKE IT TO THE INLAND
TERMINALS. VFR-MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
PENINSULA OVERNIGHT. CHANCES FOR MVFR REMAIN LOW (20% OR LESS), SO
KEEPING TAFS VFR AT THIS TIME. NRLY WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE
THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT, WITH WINDY/GUSTY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 258 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
LAST DATE THE TEMPERATURE WAS BELOW 70 DEGREES (F) THIS YEAR AT
SELECT SITES:
DAB: JUNE 8TH (67 DEG)
LEE: JUNE 8TH (68 DEG)
SFB: JUNE 8TH (67 DEG)
MCO: JUNE 8TH (69 DEG)
MLB: JUNE 8TH (68 DEG)
VRB: JUNE 11TH (69 DEG)
FPR: JUNE 11TH (69 DEG)
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 87 75 86 73 / 40 40 50 40
MCO 89 74 88 72 / 60 20 50 0
MLB 86 75 87 74 / 50 20 50 20
VRB 87 73 88 74 / 50 20 60 20
LEE 90 74 88 71 / 50 20 40 0
SFB 88 74 87 72 / 50 20 50 0
ORL 89 75 88 73 / 60 20 50 0
FPR 87 73 88 73 / 60 20 60 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
AMZ550-570.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
AMZ552-572.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THURSDAY TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
AMZ555-575.
DISCUSSION...WEITLICH
AVIATION...HALEY
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