162
FXUS62 KMLB 232350
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
750 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 237 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE.
- A COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW, USHERING IN BREEZY TO
WINDY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS THAT WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS BEACH
AND BOATING CONDITIONS FROM LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR WILL LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND LEAD
TO A SLIGHT TASTE OF FALL THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 237 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
CURRENT-TONIGHT...SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE MID ATLC
COAST WILL DRAG A WEAK "COOL" FRONT SOUTH INTO NORTH-CENTRAL FL THIS
EVENING. DEEP MOISTURE ALONG/AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE HAS PROMOTED
EARLY INITIATION OF SCT-NMRS SHOWERS/LIGHTNING STORMS ACROSS ECFL.
EXPECT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO FOCUS SOUTH/INLAND THRU THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. ISOLD STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. OTHER STORM
IMPACTS REMAIN LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS OF 40-50 MPH, FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES, AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS OF 1-3" LOCALLY IN A FEW STRONG
STORMS OR FROM REPEATED ROUNDS - POTENTIALLY LEADING TO MINOR
FLOODING. STORM STEERING REMAINS RATHER WEAK. WHILE CONVECTION IS
FORECAST TO DIMINISH INTO EVENING, ISOLD-SCT ONSHORE-MOVING SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AFFECTING MAINLY COASTAL
COUNTIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE L-M70S.
THU-FRI...AS UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES FROM SOUTHEAST TX THRU THE
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST, A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD, EXITING THE CAROLINAS AND
EMERGING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC THU EVENING/EARLY FRI AND
CONTINUING TO SLIDE SLOWLY EASTWARD THRU LATE IN THE PERIOD. AT THE
SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE MID ATLC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN AS IT RACES UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS ECFL AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA. A RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS
WITH BREEZY TO WINDY N/NE WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA ON THU,
REMAINING ELEVATED THU NIGHT, AND CONTINUING INTO FRI. THIS WILL
LEAD TO HAZARDOUS BOATING AND BEACH CONDITIONS. SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH ARE FORECAST NORTH
OF OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST ON THU, WITH HIGHEST
WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS FOCUSED AT THE COAST. SUSTAINED WINDS 15-20 MPH,
WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH THEN SPREAD SOUTHWARD ON FRI. SCT-NMRS
SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT STORMS FORECAST AGAIN ON THU (POPS 30-70%)
WITH PASSING FRONT. DRIER AIR WILL THEN LOWER RAIN CHANCES INTO
FRI, WITH ONLY LOW END RAIN CHANCES (20-30%) FOCUSED ALONG THE
COAST.
HIGHS IN THE M-U80S ON FRI, PERHAPS L80S FOR MUCH OF VOLUSIA COUNTY,
DROP SLIGHTLY FRI INTO THE L-M80S AREAWIDE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
REMAIN IN THE L-M70S THU NIGHT, THEN AS DRIER/COOLER AIR MOVES INTO
THE AREA - WILL SEE MINS IN THE M-U60S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION FRI
NIGHT-SAT MORNING. SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS NEAR TO SOUTH OF THE CAPE,
HOWEVER, MAY REMAIN IN THE L-M70S.
SAT-TUE...PREVIOUS MODIFIED...DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS
FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, GIVING US OUR
FIRST TASTE OF FALL. WHILE HIGHS STILL REACH INTO THE 80S, OVERNIGHT
LOWS DROP INTO THE 60S FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE EARLY TO MID JUNE
(SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR LAST DATES BELOW). NOTICEABLY LOWER
HUMIDITY WILL ALSO MAKE CONDITIONS MORE COMFORTABLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST THIS WEEKEND, WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES MON-TUE AS MOISTURE SLOWLY BUILDS. BREEZY
N/NE WINDS MAY CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST INTO SAT, BUT WINDS SUBSIDE
THROUGH SUN AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 237 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
THRU TONIGHT...FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT, WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING
STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WATERS. A WEAK FRONT WILL PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AS IT STALLS.
N/NE WINDS ACROSS THE VOLUSIA COUNTY COASTAL WATERS 10-15 KNOTS, BUT
FARTHER SOUTH E/NE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN 5-10 KNOTS. SEAS 2-3
FT, INCREASING UP TO 4 FT NORTH OF THE CAPE LATER TONIGHT.
THU-SUN...PREVIOUS MODIFIED...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS DEVELOP
INTO THU (NORTH TO SOUTH) AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE AREA. N/NE WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 KNOTS THU-THU NIGHT INTO FRI,
WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS (~ CAPE NORTHWARD), WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS TO
7-12 FT THROUGH FRI EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) GOES INTO
EFFECT FOR THE VOLUSIA COUNTY WATERS STARTING AT 8 AM THU MORNING
AND WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THE DAY INTO
EARLY THU EVENING. THE SCA CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATERS
THROUGH FRI, WITH ADDITIONAL EXPANSIONS NEEDED INTO THE WEEKEND AS
SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE. N/NE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10-20 KTS
SAT AND AROUND 10 KTS BY SUN, BUT SEAS ARE FORECAST TO LINGER UP TO
7-9 FT ON SAT AND 4-6 FT INTO SUN.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE INTO THU, AND THEN DRIER AIR BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL LEAD TO DECREASING COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY FRI. MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
A SURFACE FRONT SLOWLY SINKS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH
THURSDAY, AND STRATUS IS FORECAST TO SPREAD THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT INTO LATE TOMORROW MORNING AS THE FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD.
NORTHERLY WINDS BECOME BREEZY THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS INCREASING TO 20-25 KTS AT MOST TERMINALS. ROUNDS
OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY PERSIST
ALONG THE COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH SOME
ACTIVITY OCCASIONALLY REACHING AS FAR INLAND AS SFB/MCO.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
LAST DATE THE TEMPERATURE WAS BELOW 70 DEGREES (F) THIS YEAR AT
SELECT SITES:
DAB: JUNE 8TH (67 DEG)
LEE: JUNE 8TH (68 DEG)
SFB: JUNE 8TH (67 DEG)
MCO: JUNE 8TH (69 DEG)
MLB: JUNE 8TH (68 DEG)
VRB: JUNE 11TH (69 DEG)
FPR: JUNE 11TH (69 DEG)
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 76 86 73 82 / 60 70 50 30
MCO 75 88 72 85 / 10 40 20 10
MLB 75 87 75 84 / 30 50 50 30
VRB 74 88 74 86 / 30 40 40 20
LEE 74 88 71 85 / 10 20 10 0
SFB 74 86 72 83 / 20 50 20 10
ORL 75 87 73 84 / 10 40 20 10
FPR 73 88 74 86 / 30 40 30 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
AMZ550-570.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
AMZ552-572.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THURSDAY TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
AMZ555-575.
DISCUSSION...SEDLOCK
AVIATION...LAW
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