604
FXUS62 KMLB 241105
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
705 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2026
- WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND A MOSTLY DRY COOL FRONT SAGGING
THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA, WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY, AND TO AROUND 30 MPH FOR MOST OF
THE AREA FRIDAY.
- DANGEROUS BEACH AND MARINE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND
PERSIST INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY. RIP CURRENT STATEMENTS, HIGH SURF
ADVISORIES, COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES, AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD STAY OUT OF
THIS LIFE-THREATENING SURF.
- THE EARLY ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT DRIER AIR HAS
KNOCKED DOWN TODAY'S RAIN CHANCES A BIT, BUT SCATTERED ONSHORE
MOVING SHOWERS AND MAYBE A LIGHTNING STORM REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY
INTO FRIDAY. BANDING OF HEAVY SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED
FLOODING.
- A TASTE OF FALL IS IN STORE THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, AS DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2026
TODAY-FRIDAY...A STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONT
AND DRIER/COOLER AIR INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE FRONT HAS ALREADY
ENTERED EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING, AND THE DRIER AIR
IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA BY THE
AFTERNOON, AND THE REST OF THE AREA BY THE EVENING. VERY DRY AIR
ABOVE 700MB IS NOW EXPECTED TO ARRIVE EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST, AND TODAY'S RAIN CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA HAVE
COME DOWN A BIT SINCE THE LAST COUPLE PACKAGES. THIS MID-UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT PLUS THE GENERAL LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL ALSO
BE A SERIOUS HURDLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION AND LIGHTNING STORMS.
HOWEVER, CONVECTION WILL BE MOVING TO THE SOUTH AT A QUICK CLIP,
AND EVEN MODEST SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS 40-50 MPH. STORMS
THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP WILL MAINLY BE CAPABLE OF OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING. WHILE INDIVIDUAL CELLS WILL KEEP MOVING ALONG, BANDS OF
RAINFALL HAVE ORGANIZED EARLY THIS MORNING, AND THERE IS A VERY
LOW (LESS THAN 5% CHANCE) FOR ONE OF THESE BANDS TO PRODUCE +4" OF
RAINFALL IN VOLUSIA, NORTHERN BREVARD, AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
NEARBY COUNTIES, PRODUCING FLOODING IN LOW-LYING OR POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.
THE MAIN IMPACT THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL BE WINDS AND THEIR
EFFECTS ON COASTAL/MARINE AREAS, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
ACROSS FLORIDA BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD, THE FRONT, AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN US. NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
15-20 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH NORTH OF OKEECHOBEE
AND THE TREASURE COAST. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FROM COASTAL
VOLUSIA INTO THE NORTHERN BREVARD BARRIER ISLANDS, WHICH WILL BE
VERY CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA, WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS 20-25
MPH AND GUST TO 35 MPH ARE FORECAST, AND MAY OCCASIONALLY PUSH
HIGHER. INLAND WINDS EASE TO AROUND 10 MPH WITH OCCASIONALLY
HIGHER GUSTS TONIGHT, BUT OVER MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH OVER 20 MPH GUSTING TO 35 MPH, WHICH THE BARRIER
ISLANDS MAY CONTINUE TO FEEL. INLAND WINDS PICK BACK UP TO AROUND
15 MPH, CLOSER TO 20 MPH ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST, WITH GUSTS
25-30 MPH. THESE PERSISTENT, STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CAUSE
BEACH AND MARINE CONDITIONS TO QUICKLY DETERIORATE TODAY AND
REMAIN DANGEROUS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY, FROM LIFE-THREATENING
RIP CURRENTS, LARGE BREAKING WAVES AND ROUGH SURF, A STRONG
SOUTHWARD FLOWING LONGSHORE CURRENT, MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG
THE VOLUSIA COAST AND INTRACOASTAL WATERS, AND HAZARDOUS WINDS AND
SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD STAY
OUT OF THE SURF.
A LITTLE BIT OF COOLING IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT WHAT
WILL BE MOST NOTICEABLE IS THE DRIER AIR AND MORNING/EVENING
TEMPERATURES. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DIP INTO THE 60S FOR THE FIRST
TIME SINCE JUNE (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR DATES) FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM BELOW
NORMAL UP NORTH TO NEAR NORMAL DOWN SOUTH, ALL IN THE 80S.
SATURDAY-MONDAY...A GENERALLY PLEASANT WEEKEND TEMPERATURE AND
HUMIDITY-WISE IS ON TAP, ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNINGS AND EVENINGS,
BUT BEACH AND MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POOR TO HAZARDOUS. THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL LIFT CLOSER TO
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND BECOME CUTOFF (NEARLY STATIONARY), BUT
FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM FLORIDA FOR THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO LOOSEN
AS A WEAKENING SURFACE HIGH DROPS INTO THE SOUTHEAST, AND THE
BERMUDA HIGH RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO REACH BACK TOWARDS THE
CARIBBEAN. NORTHERLY WINDS COULD STILL PICK UP TO 10-15 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 25 MPH SATURDAY, MAINLY ALONG THE COAST, THEN BECOME
LIGHT WHILE VEERING ONSHORE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WHILE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH, BEACH AND MARINE HAZARDS COULD
LINGER ON. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD BE EXTRA ATTENTIVE TO THE
FORECAST, AS THE SURF MAY LOOK MORE INVITING DURING THE WEEKEND
BUT HAZARDS COULD STILL BE PRESENT.
MORNING LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOL AND DRY IN THE 60S, AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS WARM AND DRY IN THE 80S. CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
SOME ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS (CHANCES 20% OR LESS), BUT OTHERWISE
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN THE
EXTENDED TERM, BUT THIS DOESN'T BECOME A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE FOR OUR
LOCAL FORECAST UNTIL THE LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK. ALL THE GLOBAL
MODELS VARY SLIGHTLY IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF A MID-UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SWINGING ACROSS THE CONUS,
BRINGING THE ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT TOWARDS FLORIDA MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK. PRIOR TO THAT, FLORIDA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN
THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS, BUT FAIRLY CONFIDENT
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN ONSHORE, JUST A QUESTION OF WHETHER IT
WILL BE MORE EASTERLY OR SOUTHERLY. THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY HOW
MUCH MOISTURE WILL RECOVER, WITH A FAIR SPREAD BETWEEN PWATS
TICKING UP TO NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL OR SURGING BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL, DECREASING CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST RAIN CHANCES AND HEAT
IMPACTS. AS A RESULT, OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR BROADLY
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FROM NEAR/BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY, BECOMING
NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY, WITH THE RETURN OF LIGHTNING STORM
CHANCES. TEMPERATURES TICK UP A FEW DEGREES BECOMING SEASONABLY
WARM AGAIN IN THE M-U80S, BUT THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE CAUSING HEAT
INDICES TO JUMP BACK INTO THE 90S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2026
TODAY-FRIDAY...BOATING CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH BEHIND A MOSTLY DRY COOL FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS, CAUSING NORTHERLY
WINDS TO SURGE TO 15-25 KTS, UP TO 30 KTS IN THE VOLUSIA WATERS.
SEAS RESPOND BY BUILDING FROM 2-4 FT ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING TO 6-9 FT NORTH OF THE CAPE AND 4-6 FT TO THE SOUTH BY THE
EVENING, AND FURTHER INCREASING TO 9-12 FT AND 6-10 FT BY FRIDAY
MORNING, WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OFFSHORE IN THE GULF STREAM.
NORTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO BACK OFF FRIDAY NIGHT TO 15-20 KTS AS THE
FRONT SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA, BUT SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS FAST MOVING SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH FRIDAY AS
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.
SATURDAY-MONDAY...POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS, MAINLY DUE
TO SEAS, WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONT SETTLES
SOUTH OF THE AREA, WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHEAST, AND THE BERMUDA HIGH RIDGE AXIS BEGIN TO BUILD BACK
TOWARDS THE CARIBBEAN. NORTHERLY WINDS SETTLE TO 10-15 KTS
SATURDAY, OCCASIONALLY PUSHING TO 15-20 KTS, THEN EASE TO 5-10 KTS
SUNDAY, VEERING EASTERLY MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE VERY SLOW TO SUBSIDE
FROM 6-8 FT SATURDAY MORNING, TO 4-6 FT SUNDAY MORNING, AND 3-5 FT
MONDAY MORNING. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST, BUT A FEW SHOWERS
MAY POP UP IN THE TREASURE COAST WATERS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 658 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ONGOING, MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. STRATUS HAS
MOVED IN, WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY AROUND SCT/BKN015 AS A SURFACE
FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY 5-10 KT THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TO
15-20 KT WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT BY THIS AFTERNOON AT MOST TERMINALS.
ROUNDS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY
PERSIST ALONG THE COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH SOME
ACTIVITY OCCASIONALLY REACHING AS FAR INLAND AS SFB/MCO/ISM. HAVE
INCLUDED MVFR TEMPO/PROB30 FOR 5SM SHRA BKN030 FOR DAB, TIX, MLB,
MCO AND SFB FOR THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO AROUND 12 KT OVERNIGHT, BUT WILL REMAIN BREEZY AND
GUSTY ALONG THE COAST WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT. HAVE VCSH ENDING
AROUND 02Z ACROSS THE INTERIOR, AND AROUND 05Z ALONG THE COAST
WITH WINDS DECREASING TO 10-12 KT.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2026
THE ST JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR IS IN ACTION STAGE, AND IS FORECAST TO
RISE INTO MINOR FLOOD STAGE THIS EVENING AS NORTHERLY WINDS SLOW
OR EVEN REVERSE STREAMFLOW. THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN AT
LEAST MINOR FLOOD STAGE THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 316 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2026
LAST DATE THE TEMPERATURE WAS BELOW 70 DEGREES (F) THIS YEAR AT
SELECT SITES:
DAB: JUNE 8TH (67 DEG)
LEE: JUNE 8TH (68 DEG)
SFB: JUNE 8TH (67 DEG)
MCO: JUNE 8TH (69 DEG)
MLB: JUNE 8TH (68 DEG)
VRB: JUNE 11TH (69 DEG)
FPR: JUNE 11TH (69 DEG)
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 85 73 82 68 / 60 30 20 0
MCO 87 72 85 67 / 30 10 10 10
MLB 87 75 85 71 / 40 30 30 20
VRB 88 75 86 72 / 40 30 30 20
LEE 88 70 85 65 / 20 0 0 0
SFB 86 72 83 66 / 40 20 10 0
ORL 87 72 84 67 / 30 10 10 0
FPR 87 74 86 71 / 40 30 30 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLZ141-154-159-
164-347-447-647-747.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR FLZ141.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ550-570.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR AMZ552-572.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR AMZ555-575.
DISCUSSION...HALEY
AVIATION...WATSON
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