585
FXUS62 KMLB 250556
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
156 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2026
- GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A RECENT "COOL"
FRONT SAGGING THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, WITH HIGHEST GUSTS
UP TO 35 MPH ACROSS COASTAL VOLUSIA AND THE BREVARD BARRIER
ISLANDS. WIND GUSTS ON FRIDAY 25-30 MPH (HIGHEST COAST) FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA.
- DANGEROUS BEACH AND MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO AT LEAST
FRIDAY AND LIKELY INTO THE WEEKEND. RIP CURRENT STATEMENTS, HIGH
SURF ADVISORIES, COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES, AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD STAY
OUT OF THE LIFE-THREATENING SURF.
- A TASTE OF FALL IS IN STORE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2026
CURRENT-FRIDAY...A WEAK "COOL" FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG
INTO THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA THRU LATE DAY AND EARLY EVENING.
MOSTLY SCT ONSHORE-MOVING SHOWERS AND ISOLD LIGHTNING STORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THRU THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH CHANCES
CONFINED CLOSER TOWARDS THE COAST LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. BREEZY/WINDY/GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
FALL TO AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS INLAND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT,
BUT MAY REMAIN ELEVATED 15-20 MPH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
VOLUSIA/SPACE COASTS WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS AS THE PGRAD
REMAINS RATHER TIGHT. PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM CONVECTION REMAIN HEAVY
DOWNPOURS, BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES.
WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING DOWN THE PENINSULA PRECIP CHANCES INTO
FRI (20-50%) WILL MOSTLY REMAIN CONFINED CLOSER TOWARDS THE COAST
AS ACTIVITY MOVES SOUTHWARD. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN STOUT
AGAIN ON FRI, WITH SPEEDS 15-20 MPH (10-15 MPH WELL INLAND) AND
GUSTS 25-30 MPH (HIGHEST TOWARD THE COAST).
THESE PERSISTENT, STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE CREATED LIFE-
THREATENING BEACH AND MARINE CONDITIONS. DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND
ROUGH SURF WILL CONTINUE WITH LARGE, BREAKING WAVES OF 5-8 FT. A
STRONG SOUTHWARD-FLOWING LONGSHORE CURRENT WILL ALSO BE PRESENT.
EXPECT MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST AND
INTRACOASTAL WATERS. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE
DANGEROUS SURF.
SLIGHT COOLING AND DRIER AIR ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE RECENT
FRONT. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DIP INTO THE 60S FOR THE FIRST TIME
SINCE JUNE (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR DATES). AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE CLOSER TO OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL NORMS IN THE 80S.
SAT-MON...PREVIOUS MODIFIED...A GENERALLY PLEASANT WEEKEND
TEMPERATURE AND HUMIDITY-WISE IS ON TAP, ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNINGS
AND EVENINGS, BUT BEACH AND MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POOR TO
HAZARDOUS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
LIFT CLOSER TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND BECOME CUTOFF (NEARLY
STATIONARY), BUT FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM FLORIDA FOR THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO LOOSEN AS A WEAKENING SURFACE HIGH DROPS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST, AND THE BERMUDA HIGH RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO REACH BACK
TOWARDS THE CARIBBEAN. NORTHERLY WINDS COULD STILL PICK UP TO
10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH SAT, MAINLY ALONG THE COAST, THEN
BECOME LIGHT WHILE VEERING ONSHORE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
WHILE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH, SIGNIFICANT BEACH AND
MARINE HAZARDS WILL LINGER ON. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD BE
EXTRA ATTENTIVE TO THE FORECAST, AS THE SURF MAY LOOK MORE
INVITING DURING THE WEEKEND BUT RIP CURRENT/SURF HAZARDS WILL
STILL BE PRESENT.
MORNING LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOLER AND IN THE 60S AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 80S WITH CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY.
CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLD (LESS THAN 20%) ONSHORE-MOVING
SHOWERS AND GREATEST THREAT ALONG THE TREASURE COAST FOR THIS.
TUE-WED...PREVIOUS MODIFIED...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE LATER
INTO THE EXTENDED. ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS VARY SLIGHTLY IN TIMING AND
LOCATION OF A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
SWINGING ACROSS THE CONUS, BRINGING THE ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT
TOWARDS FLORIDA MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. PRIOR TO THAT, FLORIDA
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THERE IS
SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS,
BUT FAIRLY CONFIDENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN ONSHORE, JUST A
QUESTION OF WHETHER IT WILL BE MORE ERLY OR SERLY. THERE IS LESS
CERTAINTY HOW MOISTURE WILL RECOVER, WITH A FAIR SPREAD BETWEEN
PWATS TICKING UP TO NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL OR SURGING BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL; DECREASING CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST RAIN CHANCES AND HEAT
IMPACTS. AS A RESULT, OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR BROADLY
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FROM NEAR/BELOW NORMAL TUE, BECOMING
NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL WED, WITH THE RETURN OF LIGHTNING STORM CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES TICK UP A FEW DEGREES BECOMING SEASONABLY WARM AGAIN
IN THE M-U80S, BUT ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MAY CAUSE HEAT INDICES TO
JUMP BACK INTO THE 90S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2026
CURRENT-FRIDAY...DETERIORATING BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO FILTER
SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BEHIND A RECENT "COOL"
FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD. NORTHERLY WINDS SURGE TO 15-25 KTS, UP TO
30 KTS IN THE VOLUSIA WATERS. SEAS RESPOND BY BUILDING 6-9 FT NORTH
OF THE CAPE AND 5-7 FT TO THE SOUTH BY THE EVENING; FURTHER
INCREASING TO 9-12 FT AND 6-10 FT RESPECTIVELY BY FRI MORNING.
HIGHEST SEAS LOCATED OFFSHORE IN THE GULF STREAM. NORTHERLY WINDS
BEGIN TO BACK OFF FRI NIGHT TO 15-20 KTS AS THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTH
OF THE AREA, BUT SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED AS NORTHERLY WINDS OPPOSE THE
NORTHWARD FLOWING GULF STREAM. SCT TO NMRS FAST-MOVING SHOWERS WITH
ISOLD-SCT LIGHTNING STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE FRI
NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.
SAT-MON...PREVIOUS MODIFIED...POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS,
MAINLY DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS, WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE
FRONT SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA. WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND THE BERMUDA HIGH RIDGE AXIS BEGIN TO BUILD
BACK TOWARDS THE CARIBBEAN. NORTHERLY WINDS SETTLE TO 10-15 KTS SAT,
OCCASIONALLY PUSHING TO 15-20 KTS, THEN EASE TO 5-10 KTS SUN,
VEERING ERLY MON. SEAS WILL BE VERY SLOW TO SUBSIDE FROM 6-8 FT
SAT MORNING, TO 4-6 FT SUN MORNING, AND 3-5 FT MON MORNING. MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST, BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY POP UP IN THE
TREASURE COAST WATERS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
MVFR CIGS (OCCASIONAL VFR) TO CONTINUE AREAWIDE THRU AT LEAST
11-13Z WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AFTER 14-16Z INLAND. COASTAL SITES
MAINTAIN AT LEAST A 20-40% PROB FOR MVFR CIGS (00Z HREF) THRU
21Z, FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT. VCSH TO PERSIST AT COASTAL
SITES, TOO, ENDING FROM DAB (AFTER 18Z) TO SUA (AFTER 00Z). NNW
WINDS 10-14 KT (OR LESS) INLAND THRU 14-15Z, THEN GUSTING TO
AROUND 20 KT DURING THE DAY. COASTAL SITES REMAIN GUSTY THRU AT
LEAST 00Z SAT., REACHING 20-25+ KT AT TIMES.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2026
THE ST JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR IS IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE DUE TO GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS AND TIDAL EFFECTS, AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
RISE THROUGH MINOR FLOOD STAGE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE RIVER IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN IN AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2026
LAST DATE THE TEMPERATURE WAS BELOW 70 DEGREES (F) THIS YEAR AT
SELECT SITES:
DAB: JUNE 8TH (67 DEG)
LEE: JUNE 8TH (68 DEG)
SFB: JUNE 8TH (67 DEG)
MCO: JUNE 8TH (69 DEG)
MLB: JUNE 8TH (68 DEG)
VRB: JUNE 11TH (69 DEG)
FPR: JUNE 11TH (69 DEG)
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 81 67 82 65 / 30 0 0 0
MCO 84 66 85 65 / 10 0 0 0
MLB 84 70 83 69 / 30 10 0 0
VRB 85 70 84 68 / 30 20 0 0
LEE 85 65 85 64 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 82 65 84 64 / 10 0 0 0
ORL 83 66 84 65 / 10 0 0 0
FPR 85 69 84 67 / 30 20 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR FLZ141.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLZ141-154-159-
164-347-447-647-747.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ550-552.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ555-570-572-
575.
DISCUSSION...SEDLOCK
AVIATION...SCHAPER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page