740
FXUS62 KMLB 251120
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
720 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
- GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25-30 MPH (HIGHEST COAST) FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA TODAY. BREEZY WINDS CONTINUE ON SATURDAY WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH.
- DANGEROUS BEACH AND MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO AT LEAST
SATURDAY AND LIKELY INTO THE WEEKEND. RIP CURRENT STATEMENTS,
HIGH SURF ADVISORIES, COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES, AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD STAY
OUT OF THE LIFE-THREATENING SURF.
- A TASTE OF FALL IS IN STORE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINA COAST WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD, BECOMING CUT-OFF
BY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE, THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY,
EVENTUALLY PUSHING INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY TONIGHT. LOCALLY,
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TIGHT, WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
FORECAST TO BE 15-20 MPH (10-15 MPH WELL INLAND) WITH GUSTS 25-30
MPH (HIGHEST TOWARD THE COAST). DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, WITH FORECAST PW VALUES AROUND 1.3-1.5" THIS
AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT CONVECTION. THERE IS A LOW TO
MEDIUM (20-40 PERCENT) CHANCE OF RAIN, MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND
AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. MAIN STORM HAZARDS TODAY WILL BE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS OF 1-3", BRIEF GUSTY WINDS OF 40-50 MPH, AND OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING STRIKES.
HAZARDOUS BEACH AND MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY DUE TO THESE
STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS. DANGEROUS LIFE-THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS, AND ROUGH SURF WILL CONTINUE WITH LARGE, BREAKING WAVES OF
4-8 FT. EXPECT MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST AND
INTRACOASTAL WATERS. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE
DANGEROUS SURF.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. DUE TO THE
DRIER AIR, PEAK HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S. LOWS
ARE FORECAST TO DIP INTO THE 60S FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE JUNE (SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR DATES).
SATURDAY-MONDAY... UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINA COAST SATURDAY WILL STEADILY LIFT NORTHWARD,
EVENTUALLY PUSHING ONSHORE ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFTS INTO
THE SOUTHEAST US AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
SLOWLY BUILD WESTWARD TOWARDS THE CARIBBEAN. AT THE SAME TIME, THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON
THURSDAY, WILL STALL ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LOCALLY, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LOOSEN AS THE CUT-OFF
LOW PUSHES NORTHWARD AND THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SE US.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 25 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG THE COAST, BEFORE
DECREASING TO 5-10 MPH AND VEERING EAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA,
WITH FORECAST PW VALUES RANGING FROM 0.8-1.1" THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE ON MONDAY (PW VALUES 1.3-1.5"). THIS
WILL RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE
BECOMING NEAR NORMAL FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ON MONDAY
WITH A RETURN OF LIGHTNING STORM CHANCES AS WELL. THERE IS A LOW (20
PERCENT) CHANCE OF RAIN ON SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN TREASURE COAST,
NO MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES (LESS THAN 10 PERCENT) ON SUNDAY, AND A
LOW TO MEDIUM (20-30 PERCENT) CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE TREASURE
COAST AND AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE ON MONDAY.
DESPITE THE WINDS DECREASING, SIGNIFICANT BEACH AND MARINE HAZARDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS,
ROUGH SURF AND A LONG PERIOD SWELL, WHICH MAY CAUSE MINOR BEACH AND
DUNE EROSION, WILL CONTINUE AT ALL AREA BEACHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE ATLANTIC
WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, WITH PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
REMAINING IN AN SCA THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. ENTERING THE SURF
IS NOT ADVISED THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.
SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THIS
WEEKEND BEFORE BECOMING MORE SEASONABLE EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE
INCREASING TO MID TO UPPER 80S ON MONDAY. MORNING LOWS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE COOLER, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S EACH DAY.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL PUSH OFF SHORE BY MIDWEEK. A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE PERIOD. MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE LATER INTO THE PERIOD.
THE GLOBAL MODELS VARY SLIGHTLY IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF A MID-
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SWINGING ACROSS THE
CONUS, BRINGING THE ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT TOWARDS FLORIDA MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK. LOCALLY, ONSHORE WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE,
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IF THE WINDS WILL BE MORE
EASTERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY. MOISTURE LOOKS TO RECOVER SLIGHTLY,
HOWEVER EXACTLY HOW MUCH REMAINS IN QUESTIONS AS FORECAST PW VALUES
RANGE FROM NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL. THIS HAS RESULTED IN DECREASING CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST RAIN
CHANCES AND HEAT IMPACTS. FOR NOW, HAVE RAIN CHANCES BROADLY
INCREASING FROM NEAR/BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY, BECOMING NEAR/ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LIGHTNING STORM CHANCES ALSO RETURN
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM ONCE
AGAIN, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. DUE TO THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE, PEAK HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
TODAY-TUESDAY... BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TODAY
BEHIND THE RECENT COLD FRONT THAT IS PUSHING SOUTHWARD. NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT TODAY WILL SLACKEN TO
15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT TONIGHT, 10-15 KT SATURDAY, AND
GENERALLY AROUND 10 KT SUNDAY. WINDS THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE BY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, REMAINING LIGHT BEFORE BACKING ONSHORE EACH AFTERNOON
WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KT. SEAS
4-9 FT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 8-12 FT IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS
TODAY WILL SUBSIDE TO 4-8FT IN THE NEARSHORE AND 7-10 FT IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING 3-7FT BY SUNDAY, 3-5FT ON
MONDAY, AND 2-3FT ON TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL THE WATERS TODAY AND INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. POOR TO
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL THE WATERS THROUGH TODAY,
BECOMING CONFINED TO JUST THE TREASURE COAST WATERS ON SATURDAY,
WITH NO MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON
MONDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES ONCE AGAIN, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOCUSED ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST WATERS, AND
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS FORECAST ACROSS ALL THE
WATERS ON TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
MVFR CIGS (OCCASIONAL VFR) TO CONTINUE AREAWIDE THRU 13-14Z WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AFTER 14-15Z INLAND. COASTAL SITES WILL
MAINTAIN A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CIGS THRU THE DAY, ESP. MLB SOUTH. VCSH
WILL OCCASIONALLY REACH SITES TIX/MLB SOUTH THRU 00Z, THEN TAPER
NORTH TO SOUTH. NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KT (NEAR 20 KT AT THE
COAST), GUSTING TO AROUND 20-25 KT. COASTAL SITES REMAIN GUSTY
THRU AT LEAST 00Z, REACHING 25-30 KT AT TIMES. WINDS DECREASE TO
AROUND 10 KT OR LESS AFTER 03Z SAT. WITH IMPROVING CIGS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
THE ST JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR IS CURRENTLY IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE,
2.4 FEET, AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH MINOR FLOOD
STAGE INTO SUNDAY DUE TO AN ONGOING PERIOD OF NORTHERLY WINDS AND
TIDAL EFFECTS. RIVER LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN STEADY
THEREAFTER.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2026
LAST DATE THE TEMPERATURE WAS BELOW 70 DEGREES (F) THIS YEAR AT
SELECT SITES:
DAB: JUNE 8TH (67 DEG)
LEE: JUNE 8TH (68 DEG)
SFB: JUNE 8TH (67 DEG)
MCO: JUNE 8TH (69 DEG)
MLB: JUNE 8TH (68 DEG)
VRB: JUNE 11TH (69 DEG)
FPR: JUNE 11TH (69 DEG)
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 81 67 82 65 / 30 0 0 0
MCO 84 66 85 65 / 10 0 0 0
MLB 84 70 83 69 / 30 10 0 0
VRB 85 70 84 68 / 30 20 0 0
LEE 85 65 85 64 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 82 65 84 64 / 10 0 0 0
ORL 83 66 84 65 / 10 0 0 0
FPR 85 69 84 67 / 30 20 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR FLZ141.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLZ141-154-159-
164-347-447-647-747.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ550-552.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ555-570-572-
575.
DISCUSSION...WATSON
AVIATION...SCHAPER
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