570
FXUS62 KMLB 251900
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
300 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY, CLIMATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
- DANGEROUS BEACH AND MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO AT LEAST
SATURDAY AND LIKELY INTO SUNDAY WITH ELEVATED WAVE HEIGHTS, A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS, AND ROUGH, POUNDING SURF CONTINUING.
ENTERING THE OCEAN IS NOT ADVISED!
- A TASTE OF FALL IS IN STORE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA.
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY
ONWARD AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE
AREA, WITH A SLIGHT TREND UPWARD IN TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
THROUGH TONIGHT...A MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW PAIRED WITH A DEVELOPING
NOR'EASTER JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS AT THE SURFACE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD, WITH THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND ANGLED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, WHERE
IT HAS ALSO SLOWLY DRIFTED SOUTHWARD TODAY. LOCALLY, BREEZY
NORTHEAST WINDS PERSIST BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES, HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALSO CONTINUES ACROSS THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. A FEW LIGHT, ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE MANAGED
TO DEVELOP AND PUSH ONSHORE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TODAY AND
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCES (20%) FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF
THE CAPE. ELSEWHERE, CONDITIONS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAVE
REMAINED MOSTLY DRY TODAY AS A DRIER AIR MASS SETTLES ACROSS THE
AREA. THE GOES19 TOTAL PWAT VIEWER SHOWS PWAT VALUES AS LOW AS
1.1" IN SOME SPOTS NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. THIS DRIER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT AS THE NORTHERLY WINDS SLACKEN TO AROUND 10 MPH. THERE
REMAINS A LOW CHANCE (20%) OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE TREASURE
COAST OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON TRACK TO PEAK IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON, FALLING INTO THE 60S TONIGHT. THE
COOLEST OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOCUSED NEAR AND NORTH OF
THE I-4 CORRIDOR, REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST.
HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA COAST. BREAKING WAVES OF 4 TO 9 FEET AND A HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH AT
LEAST 4 AM SUNDAY. WHILE ENTERING THE OCEAN ALREADY IS NOT ADVISED
AT NIGHT, WITH THESE SURF CONDITIONS, ENTERING THE OCEAN IS
STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.
SATURDAY-MONDAY...WHILE THE NOR'EASTER CONTINUES NORTHWARD INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND AREA THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO SLOWLY
BUILD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS DRIER AIR SETTLES LOCALLY.
PWATS ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE 1-1.2" RANGE AREAWIDE, WITH
LITTLE TO NO RAIN AND STORM CHANCES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. SOME LINGERING BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY, HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST, BEFORE
DIMINISHING AND BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN SEASONABLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, RANGING BETWEEN THE LOW TO MID 80S EACH AFTERNOON,
WARMING SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON MONDAY. LOWS IN THE
60S PERSIST.
WHILE THE WEATHER WILL BE PLEASANT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND,
CONDITIONS AT THE BEACHES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN POOR TO
HAZARDOUS. PERSISTENT BREEZY AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE RESULTED IN BUILDING SEAS THAT WILL BE SLOW TO
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A HIGH RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY, THOUGH
IT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS WELL. BREAKING WAVES OF 3
TO 6 FEET WILL ALSO PERSIST, SO ROUGH, HAZARDOUS SURF WILL ALSO BE
PRESENT. OVERALL, ENTERING THE OCEAN IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED THIS
WEEKEND.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY...WHILE THE MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW NEAR THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN US CONTINUES LIFTING NORTHWARD AND
WEAKENS, ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST US AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT SOUTHWARD, REACHING THE EASTERN GULF MID TO LATE WEEK. AT
THE SURFACE, BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC IS
ANTICIPATED TO LIFT NORTHWARD, WITH GUIDANCE HINTING AT SOME SORT
OF DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING IN THE GULF AND LIFTING NORTHWESTWARD,
POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN A BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS SET-UP WOULD RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE
LOCALLY, AIDED BY INITIALLY SOUTHEAST WINDS ON TUESDAY THAT
BECOME MORE ONSHORE WEDNESDAY ONWARD. A RETURN OF RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS FORECAST, WITH POPS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN EXACT
STORM THREATS, THE TYPICAL LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS, AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ALL LOOK TO BE REASONABLE HAZARDS WITH ACTIVITY. IT IS
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THERE REMAINS SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN
GUIDANCE, SO SHIFTS AND ADJUSTMENTS TO RAIN AND STORM CHANCES ARE
LIKELY AS MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND THE TIMING BECOMES
CLEARER. THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS AND LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY THANKS TO PERSISTENT BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS CAUSING
SEAS TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. WIND SPEEDS OF 15
TO 25 KNOTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING,
WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. SEAS PEAK BETWEEN 6 TO
12 FEET, HIGHEST ACROSS THE GULF STREAM WATERS. BY SATURDAY, WINDS
SLACKEN TO AROUND 15 KNOTS, WITH SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING TO 5 TO 8
FEET. FURTHER WEAKENING OF THE WINDS TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL FINALLY
ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 5 FEET BY THE END OF SUNDAY. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL LEGS OF THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH 11 AM ON SATURDAY, CONTINUING ACROSS THE
GULF STREAM WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST 4 AM SUNDAY. EXTENSIONS IN
TIME ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF STREAM WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH DRIER
AIR SETTLING AREAWIDE BY SUNDAY.
LOOKING INTO NEXT WEEK, BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE
FAVORABLE ONCE AGAIN. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW
15 KNOTS AND SEAS RANGE BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET. DRY CONDITIONS
PERSIST INTO MONDAY, WITH RAIN AND STORM CHANCES RETURNING TO THE
FORECAST ONCE AGAIN FROM TUESDAY ONWARD AS A DISTURBANCE IN THE
GULF LEADS TO INCREASING MOISTURE LOCALLY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
CLOUD BASES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE, WITH THE ONLY PREVAILING MVFR
CIGS AT DAB. AND THIS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 20Z. HAVE INSERTED
A TEMPO FOR BKN035 AT THE OTHER SITES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
MAINTAINED VCSH AT THE COAST UNTIL 00Z OR SO. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
NEAR 25 KNOTS AT THE COAST (CLOSER TO 20 KNOTS INTERIOR) WILL
SUBSIDE WITH SUNSET. WINDS DECREASE TO 10 KT OR LESS TONIGHT WITH
VFR CONDS THROUGH SAT. A LITTLE LESS NORTH WIND SAT BUT REMAINING
GUSTY 15-20 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
THE ST. JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR REMAINS WITHIN MINOR FLOOD STAGE AND
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO RISE, CRESTING ON SUNDAY AT 2.8 FEET
DUE TO AN ONGOING PERIOD OF NORTHERLY WINDS AND TIDAL EFFECTS.
RIVER LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN STEADY THEREAFTER.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
LAST DATE THE TEMPERATURE WAS BELOW 70 DEGREES (F) THIS YEAR AT
SELECT SITES:
DAB: JUNE 8TH (67 DEG)
LEE: JUNE 8TH (68 DEG)
SFB: JUNE 8TH (67 DEG)
MCO: JUNE 8TH (69 DEG)
MLB: JUNE 8TH (68 DEG)
VRB: JUNE 11TH (69 DEG)
FPR: JUNE 11TH (69 DEG)
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 66 82 63 84 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 66 84 63 85 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 70 83 68 84 / 10 0 0 0
VRB 70 84 67 84 / 20 0 0 0
LEE 65 84 64 85 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 65 84 62 85 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 66 84 63 84 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 69 84 66 84 / 20 0 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLZ141-154-159-
164-347-447-647-747.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ550-552.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ555-570-572-
575.
DISCUSSION...TOLLEFSEN
AVIATION...KELLY
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