122
FXUS62 KMLB 271750
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
150 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 254 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2026
- LINGERING POOR TO HAZARDOUS BEACH AND MARINE CONDITIONS PERSIST
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ELEVATED WAVE HEIGHTS, A HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS, AND ROUGH SURF CONTINUING. ENTERING THE OCEAN IS
STRONGLY NOT ADVISED!
- DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
WITH NO MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES ALONG WITH SEASONABLE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED.
- RAIN AND LIGHTNING STORM CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY ONWARD AS
MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA, WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 254 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2026
TODAY-MONDAY... THE UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW AND ASSOCIATED
NOR'EASTER OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD SUNDAY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD,
EVENTUALLY PUSHING ONSHORE ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY MONDAY.
AT THE SURFACE, BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
SLOWLY BUILDS WESTWARD TOWARDS THE CARIBBEAN. LOCALLY, DRIER AIR
WILL FILTER ACROSS THE AREA, WITH FORECAST PW VALUES FALLING TO 1.0-
1.2" AREAWIDE. THIS WILL RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES (POP 20
PERCENT) WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TREASURE COAST ON MONDAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS OVER THE LOCAL AREA, WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S SUNDAY, AND MID TO UPPER 80S ON MONDAY. PEAK HEAT
INDICES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ON MONDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S, POSSIBLY REACHING 70 DEGREES ALONG THE
COAST BY MONDAY.
DESPITE THE PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS, BEACH AND MARINE CONDITIONS
WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE INTO EARLY WEEK. LINGERING SEAS WILL PRODUCE
POOR TO HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS, WITH A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
CONTINUING TODAY AND LIKELY INTO MONDAY. ROUGH SURF WITH BREAKING
WAVES OF 3 TO 6 FEET WILL CONTINUE TODAY BEFORE FALLING TO 2 TO 4
FEET ON MONDAY. ENTERING THE SURF THROUGH MONDAY IS STRONGLY
DISCOURAGED.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY... UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY MIDWEEK. A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE PERIOD, WITH THE AXIS CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. LOCALLY, ONSHORE (EAST TO SOUTHEAST) WINDS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE, WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 5-10 MPH. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
WILL FORM EACH AFTERNOON, ENHANCING THE WINDS TO AROUND 10 MPH
BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH
PERIOD, WITH FORECAST PW VALUES OF 1.3-1.6" ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BECOMING TO 1.6-1.8" WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SUPPORT
INCREASING RAIN AND STORM CHANCES EACH DAY, BECOMING ABOVE NORMAL BY
MID WEEK. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTH,
GENERALLY SOUTH OF ORLANDO METRO, EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND, WITH SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS FORECAST. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
REACH MID TO UPPER 80S, WITH SOME LOCATIONS REACHING LOW 90S ACROSS
THE INTERIOR. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY... UPPER CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE GREAT PLAINS ON
THURSDAY WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD, BECOMING ABSORBED INTO THE TROUGH
OVER THE MIDWEST BY THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT WESTWARD, TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA,
THROUGH LATE WEEK, WITH THE CENTER MOVING OVER FLORIDA BY THE
WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL STEADILY SHIFT NORTH AND WESTWARD, MOVING TOWARDS THE CAROLINA
COAST. LOCALLY, EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DOMINATE, BECOMING
ENHANCED EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE FORMATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE. MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
FORECAST PW VALUES RANGING FROM 2.0-2.4". THIS WILL SUPPORT NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY, WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS AREAWIDE BY THE WEEKEND. SLIGHT WARMING TREND
CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST EACH DAY, AS AFTERNOON HIGHS
INCREASING ABOUT A DEGREE IN SOME LOCATIONS EACH DAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 254 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2026
TODAY-THURSDAY... POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS LINGER AS
SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONSHORE WINDS TODAY AT 5-
10 KT WILL TURN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AT 5-10 KT
BEFORE TURNING ONSHORE ONCE AGAIN BEHIND THE FORMATION OF THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS THEN BECOME ONSHORE MID
WEEK, INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KT EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE.
SEAS 3-6 FT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 5-7 FT IN THE OFFSHORE
WATERS TODAY WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-4 FT MONDAY, 2-3 FT ON TUESDAY, AND
GENERALLY AROUND 2 FT WEDNESDAY BEFORE BUILDING TO 2-3 FT ON
THURSDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF
STREAM WATERS THROUGH LATE MORNING. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION IN ALL THE WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH INCREASING SHOWER
AND STORM COVERAGE ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS INTO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2026
VFR CONDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ATLC SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED
WITH E/NE TO E WINDS 7-10 KNOTS AT COASTAL TERMINALS AND THIS
WIND SHIFT WILL PUSH SLOWLY INLAND BUT NOT REACH MCO/SFB TIL
23Z-24Z WITH A WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE E/SE. AHEAD OF THE WIND
SHIFT, WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE WITH SPEEDS UP TO 6 KNOTS AND EVEN
CALM AT TIMES OVER THE INTERIOR. LIGHT/VRBL WINDS AGAIN AFTER 03Z.
ON MON, LIGHT W/SW FLOW EARLY, TURNING E BTWN 16Z-18Z AT COASTAL
TERMINALS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 254 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2026
THE ST JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR REMAINS WITHIN MINOR FLOOD STAGE AND IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO RISE SLIGHTLY, CRESTING ON SUNDAY DUE TO AN
ONGOING PERIOD OF NORTHERLY WINDS AND TIDAL EFFECTS. RIVER LEVELS ARE
FORECAST TO THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH MINOR FLOOD STAGE EARLY
NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 65 88 69 88 / 0 0 0 10
MCO 66 88 70 89 / 0 0 0 10
MLB 69 87 72 87 / 0 0 0 10
VRB 68 87 70 88 / 0 0 0 20
LEE 66 88 70 89 / 0 0 0 10
SFB 65 88 69 89 / 0 0 0 10
ORL 66 88 70 89 / 0 0 0 10
FPR 68 87 70 88 / 0 0 0 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WATSON
AVIATION...KELLY
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