773
FXUS62 KMLB 131029
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
629 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2026
- A MODERATE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT
CENTRAL FLORIDA ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY. SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD,
AND NEVER SWIM ALONE!
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST TODAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES
GRADUALLY RISING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND.
- TURNING BREEZY TO WINDY INTO THE WEEKEND BEHIND A PASSING FRONT,
WITH HAZARDOUS TO DANGEROUS BOATING AND SURF CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT...BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL GRADUALLY EXPAND EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE. THIS
WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL WINDS TO VEER FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
TODAY, WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO 5-10 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN RATHER DRY, BUT THE ONSHORE WINDS AND AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES OVER THE WATERS THAT ARE ABLE TO PUSH ONSHORE. HI-RES AND
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS ACTIVITY MOSTLY NEAR TO NORTH OF
THE CAPE TODAY, WITH A SLIGHT (20%) CHANCE FOR ONSHORE MOVING
SHOWERS ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST INTO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF PLEASANT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S, WITH
HIGHS NEAR TO JUST A TAD ABOVE NORMAL TODAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
AS ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA, MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ALONG MUCH OF
THE COAST, WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FORECAST INLAND.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE REMAINS NORTH OF
THE AREA, KEEPING WINDS ONSHORE THROUGH MIDWEEK. EAST-NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL INCREASE UP TO 10-15 MPH EACH AFTERNOON (STRONGEST ALONG
THE COAST). ISOLATED SHOWERS PUSHING ONSHORE AND DEVELOPING ALONG A
DIFFUSE INLAND MOVING EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE
TOMORROW, WITH RAIN CHANCES AROUND 20 PERCENT MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF
THE I-4 CORRIDOR. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL THEN CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES RISE TO 20-
50% NEAR TO SOUTH OF ORLANDO, WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE INTO THE
THE AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST ATLANTIC EXTENDING
ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP TEMPS ALOFT RATHER WARM (AROUND -5 TO
-6C AT 500 MB), SO THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY STRONGER STORM THREAT LOW.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S. ONSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
FRIDAY-MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS FRIDAY
AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND EVENTUALLY
ACROSS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY. WINDS BRIEFLY BECOME NORTHERLY AS
FRONT MOVES THROUGH, BUT STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS IN
WELL NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY TURN WINDS ONSHORE INTO THE
WEEKEND. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND RIDGE
TO THE NORTH, WILL LEAD TO BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AND LIKELY PERSISTING
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS EACH DAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOSTLY BE LIMITED
TO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, INTO
THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH MONDAY DEEP MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE ROUNDS OF GUSTY SHOWERS AND
STORMS PUSHING ONSHORE. LOCALLY HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL COULD
ALSO BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY ALONG THE COAST WHERE ANY PERSISTENT
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN DEVELOP.
THE LONGER DURATION WINDY EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL ALSO LEAD TO TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS SURF AND BOATING CONDITIONS, AND WILL
ALSO INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR BEACH EROSION THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAX TEMPS WILL STILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON
FRIDAY, BUT ARE FORECAST TO TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT,
FALLING TO THE LOW TO MID 80S SATURDAY AND THEN UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
ON SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL AS GUSTY
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 248 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2026
TODAY-FRIDAY...BOATING CONDITIONS REMAIN GENERALLY FAVORABLE
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
WILL EXTEND EASTWARD, WHICH WILL VEER WINDS ONSHORE. WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND THEN BECOME MORE EAST-NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET TODAY, FALLING
TO 2-3 FEET WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK, AND
THEN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE INTO LATE WEEK, WITH
ISOLATED STORMS ALSO POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...A PASSING FRONT INTO THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO
HAZARDOUS TO DANGEROUS BOATING CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND. N/NE
WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20-30 KNOTS AND GRADUALLY EXPAND
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS AS WINDS VEER TO THE E/NE THROUGH
SUNDAY. FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE LOOK TO BE LIKELY, WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 7-10 FEET SATURDAY AND EVEN HIGHER INTO SUNDAY. EVEN
BEHIND THE FRONT A WET PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST, WITH STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW AND DEEP MOISTURE LEADING TO HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED STORMS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT TUE OCT 13 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT MARINE STRATOCUMULUS
OVER THE ATLC HAVE BEGUN TO PUSH SW TOWARD THE COASTAL TERMINALS
EARLY THIS MORNING AND THESE WILL SPREAD INLAND DURING THE DAY.
THERE MAY BE BRIEF MVFR CIGS OF 025-030 AGL BUT CONDS WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY VFR. HRRR AND RRFS HI RES GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY ISOLATED
SHRA MAY CROSS THE COAST BTWN DAB-MLB IN THE AFTERNOON BUT
COVERAGE LOOKS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN ANY TAFS. WINDS WILL PICK UP
OUT OF THE NE AFT 14Z WITH SPEEDS 7-11 KNOTS, DECREASING WITH
SUNSET.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 84 72 85 72 / 10 10 10 10
MCO 88 71 88 71 / 0 10 10 0
MLB 85 75 85 75 / 10 20 20 10
VRB 86 73 87 75 / 0 20 20 20
LEE 88 69 88 69 / 0 0 10 0
SFB 87 70 87 70 / 10 10 10 0
ORL 87 71 87 71 / 0 10 10 0
FPR 86 73 86 74 / 0 20 20 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WEITLICH
AVIATION...KELLY
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