230
FXUS62 KMLB 132255
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
655 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2026
- A MODERATE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT
CENTRAL FLORIDA ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY. SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD,
AND NEVER SWIM ALONE!
- RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK, WITH HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS RETURNING TO PORTIONS OF THE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
- TURNING BREEZY TO WINDY THIS WEEKEND BEHIND A PASSING FRONT,
WITH HAZARDOUS TO DANGEROUS BOATING AND SURF CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2026
REST OF TODAY-TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
MAINTAINS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. PWATS
BELOW 1.5" AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE MID-LEVELS HAS, SO FAR,
PREVENTED MOST SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, A SCATTERED STRATOCU DECK HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA AND A SHOWER OR TWO HAS BEEN OBSERVED ON KMLB RADAR
NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. BUT, WHILE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY, THE PLUME OF MOISTURE AROUND 900MB THAT IS
CURRENTLY GENERATING OUR AFTERNOON CLOUD DECK WILL SUPPORT A FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS OVERNIGHT. SO, HAVE MAINTAINED 15-
20% POPS ALONG THE COAST, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT, AS A FEW OF
THOSE SHOWERS DRIFT ONSHORE. NE WINDS AROUND 10-12 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT AFTER SUNSET, THOUGH MAY REMAIN AROUND
10 MPH ALONG THE BARRIER ISLANDS. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO FALL INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WEST OF I-95 LATE TONIGHT, BUT ONSHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP COASTAL AREAS IN THE MID-70S.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...A TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MID-
WEEK WILL SHIFT THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US OFFSHORE THROUGH
THURSDAY. WINDS BECOME INCREASINGLY EASTERLY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS,
BECOMING 10-15 MPH EACH AFTERNOON. AS THE WIND DIRECTION CHANGES,
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA BUILDING PWATS TO 1.7-
2" BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS (15-20%) RETURNS
TO MOST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY, THOUGH THE GREATEST CHANCE WILL BE
ALONG THE COAST, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF MELBOURNE. RAIN CHANCES THEN
BUILD THURSDAY, BECOMING 30-50% SOUTH OF ORLANDO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. THUNDER CHANCES REMAIN LOW,
THOUGH A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WANES CAPE INCREASES. HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID-
70S.
FRIDAY-MONDAY (MODIFIED PREVIOUS)...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND ONSHORE
FLOW WEAKENS FRIDAY, AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY. WINDS BRIEFLY
BECOME NORTHERLY AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH, BUT STRONG AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE THAT BUILDS IN WELL NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY TURN
WINDS ONSHORE INTO THE WEEKEND. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE FRONT AND RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL LEAD TO BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY AS EARLY AS
SATURDAY AND LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS EACH DAY. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOSTLY BE LIMITED TO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, INTO THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH MONDAY, DEEP
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ROUNDS OF GUSTY SHOWERS AND STORMS PUSHING ONSHORE. LOCALLY HEAVY TO
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY ALONG THE COAST
WHERE ANY PERSISTENT BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN DEVELOP.
COASTAL AREAS HAVE ALREADY BEEN HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL RISK (1/4)
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON SATURDAY.
THE LONGER DURATION WINDY EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL ALSO LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS SURF AND BOATING
CONDITIONS, INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR BEACH EROSION THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAX TEMPS WILL STILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER
80S ON FRIDAY, BUT ARE FORECAST TO TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND THE
FRONT, FALLING TO THE LOW TO MID 80S MOST DAYS SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY, THOUGH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ARE FORECAST ON SUNDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL AS GUSTY ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2026
REST OF TODAY-FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT BOATING CONCERNS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK, AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD NORTH OF THE
LOCAL WATERS. HOWEVER, WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD, AS MOISTURE BUILDS, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE
CANAVERAL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST AREA-WIDE BY
FRIDAY. NE WINDS TODAY VEER E INTO THURSDAY, INCREASING TO 10-15
KTS EACH AFTERNOON. THEN, ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES LIGHT AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3FT, BUILDING UP TO 4 FT
OFFSHORE SOUTH OF THE CAPE SHORTLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA
INTO SATURDAY. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE FRONT
AND A STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH, BOATING CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE RAPIDLY THIS WEEKEND. NNE/NE WINDS SATURDAY REACH NEAR
GALE FORCE, WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. WINDS THEN BECOME E
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT REMAIN HAZARDOUS TO DANGEROUS.
SEAS RESPOND, BUILDING RAPIDLY TO 10-13 FT SATURDAY, WHERE THEY
WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY. IN ADDITION, A WET PATTERN LOOKS TO
PERSIST BEHIND THE FRONT, MAINTAINING HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED STORMS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 655 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2026
VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT
WILL GENTLY TURN EAST-NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, INCREASING
TO 7-10 KTS. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC MAY MOVE
ONSHORE, BUT COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO MENTION
PRECIP WITHIN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 72 85 72 86 / 10 10 10 0
MCO 71 88 71 89 / 10 20 0 30
MLB 75 86 75 87 / 20 20 10 20
VRB 74 87 75 88 / 20 20 20 40
LEE 69 88 69 90 / 0 20 0 10
SFB 71 87 71 89 / 10 20 0 10
ORL 72 87 72 89 / 10 20 0 20
FPR 73 87 74 88 / 20 20 20 50
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WISHARD
AVIATION...LAW
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