696
FXUS62 KMLB 140646
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
246 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
- A MODERATE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT
CENTRAL FLORIDA ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY. SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD,
AND NEVER SWIM ALONE!
- RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK, WITH HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS RETURNING TO PORTIONS OF THE
AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
- TURNING BREEZY TO WINDY THIS WEEKEND BEHIND A PASSING FRONT,
LEADING TO DANGEROUS BOATING AND SURF CONDITIONS, AND INCREASED
RISK OF BEACH EROSION THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE ONSHORE AS BROAD
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE REMAINS EXTENDED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND OFFSHORE. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL PICK UP
OUT OF THE EAST-NORTHEAST LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15 MPH. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
DRY AS PW VALUES RISE ONLY TO AROUND 1-1.3", BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS
MOVING ONSHORE THIS MORNING AND DEVELOPING ALONG/AHEAD OF A
DIFFUSE INLAND MOVING EAST COAST SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT A LOW (20%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MENTIONED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS WILL
THEN CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN THE ONSHORE FLOW. HIGHS
WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, RANGING FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S,
BUT SOME NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS NW OF I-4 MAY STILL DROP INTO THE
UPPER 60S LATE TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY OCCUR NW OF I-4 EARLY THIS
MORNING OR LATE TONIGHT, BUT HREF AND REFS GUIDANCE INDICATES
GREATEST POTENTIAL REMAINING N/NW OF LAKE AND INLAND VOLUSIA
COUNTIES.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL RISE INTO LATE WEEK, AS ONSHORE
WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND S/SW FLOW ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF RIDGE
ALOFT PULL DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD. POPS INCREASE TO 30-50% SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM ORLANDO TO THE CAPE ON THURSDAY, WHERE PW VALUES RISE
TO 1.8-2.0". AS THESE HIGHER PW VALUES CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
EAST CENTRAL FL INTO FRIDAY, RAIN CHANCES CLIMB TO 50-60% AREAWIDE.
GREATEST SHOWER COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS WILL BE PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER, ISOLATED ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. RELATIVELY WARM
TEMPS ALOFT (AROUND -5 TO -6C AT 500MB) AND DECREASING DRY AIR ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP STRONGER STORM POTENTIAL LOW. HOWEVER, A FEW STORMS MAY
STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY
WINDS TO 40-45 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1-3".
TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY THROUGH LATE WEEK, WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE MID TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 DEGREES
INLAND. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN IN THE 70S.
SATURDAY-TUESDAY...BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP BEHIND A
PASSING FRONT INTO THE WEEKEND AND LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A LONG DURATION OF DANGEROUS BOATING AND SURF
CONDITIONS, AS WELL AS AN INCREASED THREAT OF BEACH EROSION. FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA EITHER LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, WITH WINDS INITIALLY INCREASING OUT OF THE
NORTH. HOWEVER, THEY WILL QUICKLY VEER AND REMAIN ONSHORE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN NORTH OF THE FRONT. WIND GUSTS UP TO 35-40 MPH (WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA) WILL BE LIKELY ALONG THE COAST AND MAY EXPAND
INLAND AT TIMES WITH DAYTIME HEATING. IN ADDITION, THE QUICK
RETURN OF ONSHORE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN DEEPER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG E/NE FLOW
WILL KEEP A WET PATTERN IN PLACE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AS
ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORM CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM THE COASTAL WATERS ONSHORE. LOCALLY
HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE SHOULD ANY PERSISTENT
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP. CURRENT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
INDICATES BETTER POTENTIAL FOR ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL EXIST
SOUTH OF THE CAPE TOWARD LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS WILL DROP TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES BEHIND THE
FRONT. HOWEVER, THE QUICK DEVELOPMENT OF ONSHORE WINDS WILL NOT
BRING ANY SUBSTANTIAL DROP TO MAX TEMPS, WITH LOWEST VALUES IN THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES FORECAST NORTH OF ORLANDO DURING THE
WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, HIGHS WILL STILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LARGELY REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
DUE TO THE GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
TODAY-FRIDAY...BOATING CONDITIONS REMAIN GENERALLY FAVORABLE THROUGH
LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH KEEPS A GENTLE TO MODERATE
ONSHORE BREEZE ACROSS THE WATERS. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10-15
KNOTS THROUGH THURSDAY WEAKEN INTO FRIDAY WITH WIND DIRECTION
BECOMING A LITTLE MORE VARIABLE. SEAS LARGELY REMAIN AROUND 2-3 FEET
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT, WITH COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY INCREASING
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A FEW STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WATERS INTO LATE WEEK.
SATURDAY-MONDAY...BOATING CONDITIONS RAPIDLY DETERIORATE INTO THE
WEEKEND, BECOMING HAZARDOUS TO DANGEROUS AS A FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE WATERS. N/NE WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 25-30 KNOTS
SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE
FORECAST. WINDS QUICKLY VEER TO THE E/NE SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
ONSHORE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH AT LEAST A STRONG ONSHORE
BREEZE AND FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE CONTINUING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
WATERS. SEAS RESPOND BY QUICKLY BUILDING TO AROUND 10-13 FEET ON
SATURDAY AND REMAIN AROUND 10-13 FEET THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
WILL ALSO PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS, WITH THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING
TO PUSH TOWARD THE COAST AND ONSHORE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLD SHRA WILL PUSH ONSHORE
THROUGH WED WHICH MAY REQUIRE VCSH AT A FEW TERMINALS BUT COVERAGE
LOOKS TOO LOW FOR TEMPOS. LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN EAST-NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY, INCREASING TO 7-12 KTS BY 15Z-16Z THEN SETTLING 5 KNOTS
OR LESS AFTER SUNSET AT MCO/SFB.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 85 72 86 73 / 20 20 10 10
MCO 88 71 89 73 / 20 10 10 0
MLB 86 76 86 76 / 20 20 20 10
VRB 87 75 88 75 / 20 20 40 20
LEE 88 70 89 72 / 20 0 10 0
SFB 88 71 89 72 / 20 10 10 0
ORL 88 72 89 73 / 20 10 10 0
FPR 87 74 87 75 / 20 20 40 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WEITLICH
AVIATION...KELLY
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