091
FXUS62 KMLB 150547
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
147 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
- RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK, WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES.
- A WET AND WINDY WEEKEND IS FORECAST BEHIND A PASSING FRONT, WITH
CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIND ADVISORIES ARE
LIKELY AND FLOODING CONCERNS RETURN, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST.
- DANGEROUS BOATING CONDITIONS, HIGH SURF, AND UP TO MODERATE
BEACH EROSION ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD USE CAUTION NEAR THE BEACH
AND REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
REST OF TODAY-TONIGHT...DRIER AIR LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY,
WITH PWATS NEAR 1". THAT, COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT FROM HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH HAS LIMITED MOST SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
TODAY. HOWEVER, A FEW VERY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE STRATOCU FIELD HAVE BEEN NOTED ON KMLB RADAR TODAY. THUS, HAVE
MAINTAINED A LOW, 15-20%, POP AREA-WIDE TODAY. CAMS STILL SUGGEST
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WEST OF ORLANDO PRIOR TO
SUNSET. REGARDLESS, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST, THOUGH SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT. THEY MAY OCCASIONALLY
DRIFT ONSHORE, EMBEDDED WITHIN EASTERLY FLOW. WARM HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID-70S TONIGHT.
COASTAL AREAS LOOK TO LINGER IN THE UPPER 70S WITH WINDS 5-10 MPH
FROM THE EAST.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...THE RIDGE MOVES OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TOMORROW, THEN FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC FRIDAY, AS A TROUGH DIGS
THROUGH THE NORTHERN US. THIS TROUGH WILL THEN PUSH A SURFACE
FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE
FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH THE PERIOD, INCREASING TO 10-15 MPH ONCE
AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WINDS REMAIN OVERALL LIGHT
FRIDAY, REACHING ONLY 10 MPH ALONG THE COAST BEHIND THE DIFFUSE SEA
BREEZE. MOISTURE BUILDS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS (30-50%) FORECAST SOUTH OF MELBOURNE
IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM AROUND ORLANDO NORTHWARD, DRIER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST, THOUGH A LOW CHANCE (20%) FOR COASTAL SHOWERS WILL
LINGER OVERNIGHT. PWATS NEAR 2" WILL SUPPORT INCREASED COVERAGE
(60%) OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AREA-WIDE FRIDAY, WITH A POSSIBLE SEA
BREEZE COLLISION OVER THE FAR INTERIOR LATE. OVERALL, THE THREAT
FOR STRONG STORMS IS LOW, WITH WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT -5 TO -6 C,
BUT A GUST OR TWO TO 45 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT. TEMPERATURES
CLIMB TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 LATE
WEEK, AS OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN IN THE 70S.
SATURDAY-TUESDAY...THE SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH SOUTH
FLORIDA SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO
LAG BEHIND SLIGHTLY, PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH DAY.
THE FRONT THEN LOOKS TO REMAIN STALLED IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTH
FLORIDA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS STRONG RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
EASTERN US, NORTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO WINDY
CONDITIONS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY, WHICH
LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DAYBREAK TO
BEGIN THE WEEKEND MAY EVEN HAVE GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW.
HOWEVER, BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, SUSTAINED NNE WINDS BUILD TO 15-25
MPH AND GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH. WINDS ONLY FURTHER INCREASE INTO
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THEY VEER ENE, WITH WINDS 20-25 MPH AREA-WIDE
AND GUSTS 30-40 MPH. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE FORECAST ALONG THE
COAST, REMAINING BREEZY TO WINDY OVERNIGHT. BREEZY CONDITIONS
INLAND WILL BECOME WINDY INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
NEEDLESS TO SAY, WIND ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
WITH THE FRONT STALLED ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA, PWATS LOOK TO REMAIN
UP TO 1.6-2" SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL. THIS, COMBINED WITH STOUT
ONSHORE FLOW, WILL LEAD TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF FAST-MOVING SHOWERS
MOVING INTO COASTAL AREAS. PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST ARE
HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (1/4) THIS
WEEKEND. THE GREATEST THREAT LOOKS TO BE ALONG THE TREASURE COAST,
WHERE TRAINING BANDS OF SHOWERS ARE LIKELY. 90TH PERCENTILE 48 HOUR
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3-5" ARE FORECAST FOR THE MARGINAL RISK
AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER, PORTIONS OF MARTIN AND ST LUCIE
COUNTIES HAVE A 25% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 4" DURING THE SAME PERIOD.
THUS, WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE THREAT FOR FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL. POPS 60-80% ARE FORECAST
FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ELSEWHERE, DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE AREA WILL LIMIT THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT, WITH
POPS 20-50%. THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS WILL BE LOW DUE TO WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT (-6 C AT 500MB). THOUGH SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY
LOCALLY ENHANCE THE ALREADY WINDY FLOW.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS LOWS FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS
PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS
BEACH AND BOATING CONDITIONS. GALE- FORCE WIND GUSTS LOOK TO
PRODUCE HIGH SURF, WITH BREAKING WAVES 9-12 FT. MULTIPLE TIDAL
CYCLES OF HIGH SURF WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO UP TO MODERATE BEACH
EROSION, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL. RESIDENTS AND
VISITORS SHOULD USE CAUTION NEAR THE BEACH AND REMAIN OUT OF THE
WATER.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
REST OF TODAY-FRIDAY...FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS PREVAIL
THROUGH FRIDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.
ENE FLOW INCREASES TO 10-15 KTS IN THE AFTERNOONS THROUGH
THURSDAY, BECOMING LIGHTER AND A LITTLE MORE VARIABLE ON FRIDAY.
SEAS REMAIN AROUND 2-3 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS
TODAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK,
BECOMING SCATTERED AND CONTINUING DURING THE OVERNIGHTS.
SATURDAY-MONDAY (MODIFIED PREVIOUS)...BOATING CONDITIONS RAPIDLY
DETERIORATE INTO THE WEEKEND, BECOMING HAZARDOUS TO DANGEROUS AS A
FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS. N/NE WINDS RAPIDLY
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY TO AROUND 25-30 KNOTS, WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE FORECAST. WINDS QUICKLY VEER TO THE
E/NE SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN ONSHORE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH AT LEAST A STRONG ONSHORE BREEZE AND FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE CONTINUING ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATERS. SEAS RESPOND BY QUICKLY
BUILDING TO AROUND 10-14 FEET BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN AROUND
THAT HEIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL ALSO PERSIST ACROSS
THE WATERS, WITH THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO PUSH TOWARD THE COAST
AND ONSHORE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE TREASURE COAST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS CONTINUES TONIGHT, WITH
A SHOWER OR TWO POTENTIALLY MAKING IT TO THE COAST FROM VRB
SOUTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL
BECOME EAST AND INCREASE TO NEAR 10 KT BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON
THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. HAVE MAINTAINED VCSH FROM VRB SOUTHWARD AFTER 12Z/14Z FOR
ROUNDS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS, AND HAVE ADDED VCTS
STARTING AT 18Z FOR THOSE TERMINALS. INCLUDED VCSH AT MLB STARTING
AT 18Z. ANY LINGERING SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE OUT OF
DISSIPATE AFTER 01Z. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 86 73 87 71 / 10 10 40 20
MCO 90 74 90 74 / 10 10 60 20
MLB 87 76 88 73 / 20 20 60 40
VRB 88 75 89 72 / 30 30 60 40
LEE 90 73 89 72 / 0 0 60 20
SFB 89 73 90 73 / 10 10 60 20
ORL 89 74 90 74 / 10 10 60 20
FPR 88 75 88 72 / 40 30 60 40
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WISHARD
AVIATION...WATSON
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